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Understanding Ohio COVID Data Profile picture
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12 Apr, 3 tweets, 1 min read
A letter was sent by President Kristina Johnson, of The Ohio State University, today to the OSU community regarding NEXT FALL.

Attached, please read two excerpts and let it just sink in.
There will be no end to testing (not even for those who have complied!), no end to distancing, no end to masking.

NO END.
Those who still believe that there will be anything resembling sanity or normalcy or the simple ability to be allowed to gauge risk in the next couple of months are sadly mistaken.

The only way this stops is if enough people *say* it stops.

#InThisTogetherOhio

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More from @ohio_data

Understanding Ohio COVID Data Profile picture
24 Mar
- Numbers have meaning. -

They don't just come from the ether. In Ohio (and many other places now) we are again focused on easily manipulated 'cases' and more specifically the now all-important 'cases per 100,000.'
Governor DeWine likes to say that it's a standard metric that they've been using all along (though I've noticed of late he no longer tries to tie it directly to the CDC's usage anymore, hmmmm) And it is a standard metric for the CDC. But not how it it being used in this instance.
This metric has been used for a long time for tracking the flu, and indeed, 50 cases/100,000 is the standard 'epidemic level' but what Gov. DeWine does not tell us is that it **matters how long we count for.**
Read 8 tweets
Understanding Ohio COVID Data Profile picture
15 Mar
- Prevalence -

I have been criticized for the focus I have been putting on 'probable' cases for the last month or so. 1/3rd of our cases are 'probable,' so what? "They're mostly just positive antigen test cases! Just as good as PCR confirmed!"
Well, according to the FDA, no. The FDA has been very explicit that antigen tests need to be used in a very conscientious way. Specifically, that to properly interpret antigen tests results, the provider needs to take into account the prevalence of the disease in the region.
Please see fda.gov/.../potential-…... to see their exact recommendations, with a special focus on the section I have attached in the first image.

From that clip, it is clear that prevalence is an incredibly important number to understand.
Read 13 tweets
Understanding Ohio COVID Data Profile picture
13 Mar
- Denominators, Part Two -

Or more of how Ohio's 'special math' works.

I had a question about what the significance of the number of days counted in the cases/100,000 metric is - whether it's 7 days (as the CDC counts it) or 14 days (the way Ohio counts it).
So I figure this is a good time for another set of hypotheticals to illustrate how this all works and how important the details really are. In the first attached graphic, I want you to imagine a county with exactly 100,000 residents that has exactly 7 new cases every single day.
If we count only one week's worth of cases (green box) we come up with 49 cases/100,000 - Freedom!

But if we count over 2 weeks (red box), we are suddenly at 98 cases/100,000!! PANIC! Image
Read 7 tweets
Understanding Ohio COVID Data Profile picture
13 Mar
- Denominators -

So, there was a really great question in the comments yesterday, asking about where are we in our cases per 100,000 if we were to remove all probables in the last week. Let's take a look, shall we?
Please examine the attached table. In the first column I have listed out 'probable' cases, confirmed cases and the total combined from 2/24/21-3/9/21 - the range used for our current number. In the second column I have calculated the all important cases per 100,000 metric. Image
As you can see, the number of 'probables' alone exceeds the 50 cases/100,000.

But interestingly enough, if we were to count only confirmed cases and actually follow what the CDC does -
Read 6 tweets
Understanding Ohio COVID Data Profile picture
21 Jan
⬇️⬇️⬇️ The "Math" of Fear

As it is Thursday, I have a post for you today in anticipation of Gov. DeWine's new Maps of Fear which he has tried to phase in. I have previously discussed both the new red and blue maps and their issues -
- but today I hope to illustrate even more clearly what level of manipulation is going on, particularly with the new blue 'ICU Utilization' map.
Attached I have two images.

The first is a hyper-simplistic (and unrealistic) but illustrative example of the calculations that the new blue map goes through to arrive at its numbers.
Read 17 tweets
Understanding Ohio COVID Data Profile picture
18 Jan
So here's something interesting about our latest 'surge'. If one goes to coronavirus.ohio.gov/.../covi.../da… you can toggle between 'confirmed' cases, 'probable' cases and both of them together.
So what is a 'confirmed' case? That would be any laboratory confirmed 'case' - any positive PCR, antigen or antibody test, with all the issues of false positivity and hypersensitivity and non-infectiousness that go along with all of those tests.
A 'probable' case does not even have a positive test result associated with it. All it requires are symptoms. Maybe an epidemiological link. We are now in the middle of what used to be referred to as 'flu season' when there is a wide variety of respiratory illnesses that exist -
Read 11 tweets

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