1/ today's #bitcoin sell-off has nothing to do with turkey 🇹🇷 banning the use of crypto in payments. at all.

it's the tail wagging the dog i.e. derivatives

traders were highly levered long going into the $COIN listing which everyone expected to be a catalyst for $BTC 🚀
2/ remember that leverage in crypto is EXPENSIVE AF.

cash borrow rates in crypto are now 20 – 40% while bitcoin borrow rates remain very low at 2-3%, highlighting the massive demand for cash borrow!
3/ coinbase listed. BTC moved, but not enough.

traders need volatility to profit. when volatility doesn’t materialize and cash funding is expensive, traders tend to close out positions

so those longs get unwound, cuz it's too EXPENSIVE to keep them open.
4/ there's also a very real opportunity cost of capital at the moment. there are some amazing trades that can be put on w relatively low risk and very juicy return.

traders aren't ideologues.

buy the rumor, sell the news. $COIN didn't push the corn, so traders dip.
5/ so what's the take-away here?

one - bitcoin markets are very much driven by derivatives. funding rates, implied vol, and open interest are important to monitor. spot follows futures -> tail wags dog.

two - there isn't enough leverage, and cost of capital limits capacity!
6/ three - banking sucks! tradfi institutions who want to move in size simply can’t move fast enough because wires / ACH takes 3+ days, so there’s a real disconnect btw crypto MMs who use USDC / USDT and tradfi trying to wire USD (cute!)

u miss 100% of the arbs u can't fund
7/ just sharing because i see a lot of really bad takes and confusion re: correlation / causation MSM reporting and honestly, it's offensive.

market structure matters, a lot. it's all we think about at @CoinSharesCo. hmu if you wanna grind on it some more.

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More from @Melt_Dem

16 Apr
1/ "why is $DOGE pumping?"

pull up a chair, my friends, the answer is in plain sight

DOGE is up 500% over the last 7 days and is now $48B in market cap, making it the fifth largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

but why?

let's look at r/WallStreetBets
2/ on wednesday, ahead of the $COIN listing, the WSB mods changed their ban on crypto discussion to allow talk about 3 cryptocurrencies - #Bitcoin , ethereum, and... you guessed it... $DOGE

as you can imagine, the WSB community went wild
3/ not 24 hours later, the mods reverse that decision and announced they would ban all crypto chatter on the forum indefinitely

according to some reports, the ban was a response to this @business article claiming WSB mods were bowing to pressure

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 7 tweets
13 Apr
1/ crypto is not just an asset class, its an entirely new industry.

the Coinbase $COIN listing firmly plants that flag.

this industry will mint dozens of unicorns, including @CoinSharesCo, that bring equity ownership opportunities to public markets.

cnbc.com/video/2021/04/…
2/ these listings bring much needed transparency and insight into crypto business models, and highlight how profitable companies are

at @CoinSharesCo, we reported a 65% EBITDA margin in Q4, compared to traditional banks who reported an average 47% EBITDA margin in Q4
3/ coinbase reported 65M users and over $1.5B in EBITDA in Q1 alone, and is on track to book revenues and net income that exceed any other US exchange - ICE, Nasdaq, CME, and CBOE.

when it lists, i fully expect coinbase to valued higher than Goldman Sachs (h/t @JasonYanowitz)
Read 6 tweets
7 Apr
1/ my friends and family in Turkey 🇹🇷 saw their savings drop 15% last week.

inflation may be an abstract concept in the states, but it is painfully real for people in other parts of the world.

thread below 👇 (trigger warning for MMT peeps 😬)
2/ inflation isn't just a rise in the cost of goods and services. It is the money you worked hard for becoming less valuable.

it is going to be more expensive for Turks to buy bread tomorrow. more importantly, it's going to be more difficult for them to retire.
3/ and while it may feel like outside the realm of possibility in the US, the Fed is printing money at historic rates.

before the most recent $1.9 trillion stimulus, M2 money supply had already increased by more than 25%.

but sure, inflation is only 1.4%.
Read 10 tweets
6 Apr
1/ numbers don't lie.

crypto is a $2T market. millions of people are billions of dollars per day across public blockchain networks.

i'm excited to join the board of @KingdomTrustCo @choicebyKT to bring #bitcoin to retirement accounts.

a short thread!

retirewithchoice.com/meltem-demiror…
2/ while firms like Goldman Sachs are working on offering bitcoin to only their wealthiest clients, @choicebyKT is working on democratizing access for everyone.

at @CoinSharesCo, we believe bitcoin is for *everyone*

equality of access is critical!
3/ since the launch of Choice, digital assets have grown to over $1.6B of the firm’s $18B in assets under custody.

today, Choice powers 125,000 retirement accounts.

but we see a MASSIVE opportunity to bring crypto to the $34.9 trillion held in US retirement accounts.
Read 6 tweets
5 Apr
1/ as crypto markets continue to rally, a few observations on the funding landscape

it continues to change *dramatically* as more capital floods into the space and more individuals in crypto become institutions in their own right

as they say, mo' money, mo' problems...
2/ the smartest founders i know are designing their own round.

they start with an idea of what type of folks they want on the cap table and what they need help with.

they then work with existing investors, like me, to fill out the round and curate the best group possible.
3/ founders want builders, not LARPers

i see crypto founders, operators, and execs on cap tables, especially in the early stages

some have become prop firms ie @cmsholdings @nascentxyz @sinoglobalcap and some are prolific angels @theklineventure @rleshner @StaniKulechov
Read 9 tweets
1 Apr
1/ time for another #Bitcoin mining update 🚀

i'm 56 days into my experiment. providing an update on profitability and *emissions*

see my summary below. i'll delve into each line item in the thread.

let's go 👋🏾
2/ bitcoin mined - @compass_mining gives me a link directly to @f2pool_official to view & download my machine stats

interesting fact - 87.4% of BTC is from block rewards and 12.6% is from transaction fees

every ten days or so, bitcoin gets deposited directly into my wallet!
3/ hardware - i've already covered hardware extensively in my original thread 👇🏾

the price of hardware has gone even higher due to massive shortages. at the end of Feb, my machine was worth 9k. it's now selling for 11.5k, used.

Read 10 tweets

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