Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Week-In-Review

tl;dr
* 538 cases/day this wk (record high)
* cases +102% over 6wks, +244% over 8wks
* tests +41%, +82%
* this was the worst wk yet
* last wk was 2nd worst
* next wk will be even worse
* but you can save lives

1/

Here are avg daily cases per wk, for every wk of the local pandemic since we reopened in May.

The past 5wks represent the #1, #2, #4, #5, & #6 highest wks yet.

Not only are we in the worst of it, but we've been in the worst of it for a month now.

And it's getting worse.

2/

But the past month is even worse than we knew.

We started experiencing significant reporting delays beginning Nov1.

Since then, avg daily cases reported have been 53 cases (13%) below actual cases once the testing gets processed and assigned to the date of the test.

3/

Here are avg daily cases by test date. The one of the left was pulled today. The one of the right was from Wed (Dec9).

On Wed, Nov30 was at 657 cases.
Today, Nov30 is all the way up to 700 cases.

That wk, 465 cases per day were reported.
Actual cases avg'd over 500 per day.

4/

Dec4 is the most recent day here. But bc of reporting delays, Nov30-Dec4 are not accurate. Cases are still being added.

That said, the 10 highest days on record are:
Nov30, 700
Nov23, 650
Dec1, 626
Nov16, 620
Dec2, 596
Nov9, 579
Nov24, 547
July15, 535
Nov13, 526
Nov10, 525

5/

Here are cases per day by report day, all the way up to the record-high 930 reported today.

The 7-day avg is up to 538 cases per day.

But reported cases have been off by 13% for the past month, so it is likely that we are actually already avg'ing over 600 cases per day.

6/

Here are my projections for the next 3wks.

You'll notice that I changed my growth rates from 0.8%, 0.9%, & 1.0% to 0.9%, 1.0%, & 1.1%. That's bc the growth rate is increasing. We avg'd 1.0% this wk.

It's looking like we could hit 700 cases/day by Jan1.

7/

We reached 50k cases a wk ago, Dec5.
That took 272 days.
It will take less than 70 days for the next 50k.

The first 10k cases took over 100 days.
20k, 28 days
30k, 52 days
40k, 52 days
50k, 25 days

60k will come on Dec23, 18 days.
70k, 15 days.
80k, 14.
90k, 11.
100k, 11.

8/

Here are covid deaths. You can see a clear trend up from mid-Oct to now.

And we'll likely see the death rate start to increase as our healthcare system becomes more and more strained.

We're avg'ing 5 deaths per day. I hope I'm wrong, but I project 20 deaths/day by Jan14.

9/

Once our healthcare system reaches capacity, which looks like might happen within the next month, deaths will skyrocket.

10/

Hospitals are already at capacity or near capacity.

The real problem locally is staffing. The governor has deployed National Guard medics to help.

wreg.com/news/coronavir…

11/

And healthcare workers are the largest group to test positive for covid. (Second is manufacturing & warehouse workers, third is school employees.)

This is a real problem. If nurses are sick with covid, that strains our already-thin staffing.

dailymemphian.com/section/metro/…

12/

But it doesn't have to be like this.

We have successfully flattened the curve twice now, once from March into April, then again from Aug through Sept.

If we did it before, we can do it again.

The only thing stopping us is the will to do so.

Let's flatten the curve.

13/

In fact, we could go even further than flattening the curve. We could just get rid of covid altogether.

It's possible.

Look at Melbourne, Australia.

The city is the size of DC, 5x larger than Memphis, but has not had a new covid case in 4wks.

vox.com/2020/12/4/2215…

14/

Now is not the time to give up.

With vaccines on the way, we can see the finish line.

Now is the time to set a new goal and to rally the community together.

15/

We can literally save thousands of lives.

Have you ever have the chance to save thousands of lives?

Probably not. And you probably never will again.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity.

16/

So what can you do?

1) Stay home.
2) Or outdoors.
3) Keep your distance.
4) Wear a mask.
5) Buy local. Gifts, gift cards, takeout.
6) Donate to nonprofits.
7) Tell Congress to provide financial relief to state & local govt, small biz, & individuals.

17/

But we need a goal.

And I think we have to make schools our priority.

The district announced yesterday that, bc of the surge of covid cases, it will delay reopening in-person.

Let's rally around our children.

tn.chalkbeat.org/2020/12/11/221…

18/

Here's our goal:

Given that schools have been closed since Mar13, 2020, Shelby County will have fewer than 10 daily cases per 100k ppl & a test positivity rate under 5%, for 14 consecutive days, by Mar22, 2021, so that schools can reopen safely.

dailymemphian.com/article/15774/…

19/

We know what the end of the story looks like. Vaccines are on the way to save us. But there is plenty of story yet to be written.

The question is, what does the next 3-6 months look like?

The choice is ours.

Let's choose life. And let's invest in our future.

20/20