Thread by @iamgkadam

It is indeed impossible for anyone to predict how the 2nd wave in India will play out, when it'll peak etc.

Worth trying still, not so much for scare mongering but for maybe some idea of what's ahead. Brazil had a similar catastrophe, except earlier, and can be instructive

I use Brazil because it's similarly developing country, vast tropical climate, but also because the peaks and interval between waves has some uncanny similarities, especially in deaths
Wave 1 - peak 6Sep20 IN, 9Jun20 BR (~3mo)
Start wave 2 - 6Mar21, 9Nov20 BR (~3mo)

I'll caveat the comparison strongly as multiple differences - potential strain, vaccination much higher in India than Brazil was in Nov, climate etc.

But healthcare systems being saturated is similar. India is now *maybe* where BR was ~Feb'21

https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1371989002270674949

The fact that India's second wave took just ~6w (defining deaths strating to rise as start point for India) vs ~3mo for Brazil is also visible in how steep India's curves are vs Brazil's

Brazil daily mortslity has maxed at ~3k (undercounted?) but that has been stable for 2wks+

Where India's will peak, it's a prediction no one should make or want to make.. each number is a life lost, a family grieving.

And this is only reported deaths, undercounting in India almost surely the case as documented by many

https://twitter.com/muradbanaji/status/1284481215563575296?s=20

But these data suggest many more *WEEKS* of pain, and this'd be *after* it peaks, as the peak moves from state to state, while one locks down and recovers (MH finally seems turning the corner) and it shoots up elsewhere. A terrible game of whack-a-mole 😓

India's first wave peak was very sharp in contrast to most others, unclear why. And if that repeats, then we might have some weeks off these estimates 🤞

States not yet hard hit - the south, north east - must ramp up testing, NPIs, healthcare resources now. It'll come for sure.

Meanwhile, we can only try and delay/shorten the inevitable by following the 3 Ws - wash hands, wear masks, watch distance, and the big V - get vaccinated if eligible whichever vaccine you're offered. Excellent thread of practical suggestions

https://twitter.com/cspramesh/status/1383748068659535873?s=20

Highlighting some important points

Using N95 sensibly

https://twitter.com/cspramesh/status/1383748080512630789?s=20

How to prepare yourself at home if you haven't already - eat well, watch less of that ridiculous loop mode news channel

https://twitter.com/cspramesh/status/1383748096853639168?s=20

What to do if you end up testing +ve - don't rush for that medicine you heard about online or start looking for plasma (most trials show no benefit unfortunately anyway, and no drug is bona fide approved yet)

https://twitter.com/cspramesh/status/1383748102067163139?s=20

You'll recover fine almost surely - 9 of 10 times if not more, even higher chances likely if vaccinated even if only 1 dose so far. See below for many, *many* real world stories of how vaccination has helped for people of all ages

https://twitter.com/DoctorLFC/status/1379505997119512577?s=20

Please take time to talk to your acquaintances, family, friends, housemaid, shop guy, vegetable vendor if they're hesitant about vaccines. I'm happy to help, please DM any questions - I have convinced more than 10 people through 1 on 1s. We need a vast majority to be vaccinated

Stay safe, stay heslthy, and please look out for those less privileged than you. What goes around comes around, your help today will definitely come to help you one day in the future.

/End