Thread by @althecat

I seriously think the @ECMWF West African Monsoon simulation model is simply broken. Every day the 24 hour it looks the same. Very loopy.

Here are the GZ 20.00 19.00 18.00 and 17.00 model runs for 10 days accumulated precipitation.

GFS same four runs...

KMA same four runs...

And CMC three runs 20.00 19.00 and 18.00...

Of the four the CMC is definitely the most bullish on WMA volatility and strength. It has an interesting and very disruptive idea about the timing and strength of the next large trans-Sahara transit event.

Here is an animation of today's 10 day forecast of the CMC's West African Monsoon. It contains a lot of drama, the northern edge of the monsoon looks like a stormy sea. #AfricaRains #WestAfrica #WestAfricaMonsoon

The 19.00 model run provides a clearer picture of what is going on, especially when run a little bit slower.
#AfricaRains #WestAfrica #WestAfricaMonsoon #WMA

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