Litigation finance thread.

Considering how expensive traditional assets (stocks & bonds) have become, we are looking at alternatives with uncorrelated behavior to:

• investment cycle
• interest rates
• central banks
• corporate earnings
• unemployment
• credit growth etc
In case of an asset repricing,

similar to those in 1987, 1998 (in Asia), 2000-03 (in Tech), 2007-09 (worldwide), 2011-12 (EU),

there are very few assets that could deliver positive returns while many others are under pressure.

We believe litigation funding is one of them.
Most investors (myself included) would not consider such foreign investment strategies due to high entry barriers and difficulty in comprehending the conditions which would favor successful outcomes.

Getting mentors & other experienced investors to guide us, has been our key.
Due diligence process looks a bit like:

• Legal merits
• Legal team & alignment of interest
• Enforceability
• Defendant's creditworthiness
• Defense & regulations
• Security & insurance
• Litigating costs
• Funder’s asymmetry

In the coming weeks we'll expand on these.
I will cover this more in-depth, but the underlying assumption here is for funding investors to often — if not always — stick to common law jurisdictions like the US, the UK, and Australia/NZ.

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More from @TihoBrkan

13 Apr
House price growth in northern cities and towns is continuing to outpace southern locations, including London, according to the latest UK Land Registry data.

thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgage…
Liverpool had risen 16.7% since the UK first went into lockdown last year.

Meanwhile...

In the City of London, the capital's financial district, prices were down 6.5% since March last year. In Westminster and Tower Hamlets, property prices were down 5% & 4.7% respectively.
Australian residential property markets are super hot, with all capital cities experiencing strong auction clearance rates and rapidly rising values.

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11 Apr
At the end of the bull market, popularity contests are in abundance.

But, if you will buy the most popular companies and allocate to the most popular industries like everyone else, what is your edge to outperform?

"First answer the question, 'What's your edge?" — Seth Klarman
"I think Julian Robertson said it best and I think to some extent that's why the Tiger Cubs have been so successful.

'What is your edge?'

When having a bear or bull discussion, he would constantly say 'what is your edge?', 'what do you know that the market doesn’t?'"
"What is in your process that gives you an edge?

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Do you see things differently and do you see the reality versus the perception of reality?"

— Jim Chanos
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6 Apr
Precious metals are a disappointment to the investment community.

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For contrarians, it's probably a good time to start paying attention.
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There is a die-hard Goldbugs camp, there is also a lot of hate towards Gold, plus everything in between.

Gold has become very much disliked in the West, while countries like China & India have a strong tradition towards it.
Gold floated in the early 1970s, but my chart starts in 1988 — cutting out the 70s is maybe not a fair way to measure its performance.

Regardless, it should be clear that Gold has had periods of very strong returns (25% CAGR over a decade) as well as disappointing periods.
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1 Apr
Emerging Markets thread.

The EM stocks have been consolidating for 14 years plagued by one crisis after another.

For their stocks to outperform, we need:

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Relative to the US market, Emerging Markets have been underperforming since 2011 — coincides with the bottom in the $USD.

The underperformance is actually worse if we remove the China Tech sector (Tencent, Alibaba, etc).

EM: a value trap or once-in-a-decade buying opportunity? Image
Within the Emerging Economies complex, Asia has been the outperformer while the rest of the countries have lagged considerably.

The chart below shows the EM ex Asia, which recently traded below the March 2009 bottom (11 years ago).

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31 Mar
Cash levels have constantly remained low throughout this bull market.

The majority are invested & any turbulence sees central banks step in, saving the day.

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30 Mar
Mezzanine financing is one of the most opportunistic ways to allocate capital, whether it's in public or illiquid markets — and yet it is very misunderstood.

In this super thread, which will be ongoing, I will disclose the theory & practice I've learned about the asset.
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From what I've learned over the years, mezzanine deals are looked at differently in the US vs other developed markets like Eurozone & Anglo-Saxon jurisdictions.

There is a large misunderstanding between players, both with private equity & real estate, due to these developments.
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