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Tiho Brkan Profile picture
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23 Apr, 10 tweets, 1 min read
Join us for an in-depth investor survey over 10 tweets. 👇

Q1: Twelve months after the pandemic, what are you doing in your portfolio?
Q2: What is the most attractive investment opportunity in the coming 1-2 years?
Q3: How optimistic are you on the global stock market (S&P 500, Nasdaq, large-cap stocks, etc) over the coming 1-2 years?
Q4: How optimistic are you on the residential property market (both single-family & multifamily) over the coming 1-2 years?
Q5: How optimistic are you on the technology sector (listed growth names, SaaS, e-commerce, venture capital & early stage start-ups) over the coming 1-2 years?
Q6: How optimistic are you on the crypto assets (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) over the coming 1-2 years?
Q7: Are you planning to allocate to alternative illiquid assets, funds, and strategies (PE & secondaries, VC, private credit & mezzanine, green energy, infrastructure funds, etc) over the coming 1-2 years?
Q8: What is the most important aspect or characteristic of your personal investment mandate, when allocating your capital today?
Q9: What is the number one risk for investors over the coming 1-2 years?
Q10: The next 1-2 years investor's portfolios will experience?

• • •

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More from @TihoBrkan

Tiho Brkan Profile picture
21 Apr
Litigation finance thread.

Considering how expensive traditional assets (stocks & bonds) have become, we are looking at alternatives with uncorrelated behavior to:

• investment cycle
• interest rates
• central banks
• corporate earnings
• unemployment
• credit growth etc
In case of an asset repricing,

similar to those in 1987, 1998 (in Asia), 2000-03 (in Tech), 2007-09 (worldwide), 2011-12 (EU),

there are very few assets that could deliver positive returns while many others are under pressure.

We believe litigation funding is one of them.
Most investors (myself included) would not consider such foreign investment strategies due to high entry barriers and difficulty in comprehending the conditions which would favor successful outcomes.

Getting mentors & other experienced investors to guide us, has been our key.
Read 5 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
13 Apr
House price growth in northern cities and towns is continuing to outpace southern locations, including London, according to the latest UK Land Registry data.

thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgage…
Liverpool had risen 16.7% since the UK first went into lockdown last year.

Meanwhile...

In the City of London, the capital's financial district, prices were down 6.5% since March last year. In Westminster and Tower Hamlets, property prices were down 5% & 4.7% respectively.
Australian residential property markets are super hot, with all capital cities experiencing strong auction clearance rates and rapidly rising values.

realestate.com.au/news/property-…
Read 9 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
11 Apr
At the end of the bull market, popularity contests are in abundance.

But, if you will buy the most popular companies and allocate to the most popular industries like everyone else, what is your edge to outperform?

"First answer the question, 'What's your edge?" — Seth Klarman
"I think Julian Robertson said it best and I think to some extent that's why the Tiger Cubs have been so successful.

'What is your edge?'

When having a bear or bull discussion, he would constantly say 'what is your edge?', 'what do you know that the market doesn’t?'"
"What is in your process that gives you an edge?

Whether it’s trading-wise, whether it’s research-wise that basically sets you aside?

Do you see things differently and do you see the reality versus the perception of reality?"

— Jim Chanos
Read 4 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
6 Apr
Precious metals are a disappointment to the investment community.

Cryptocurrencies have stolen the attention, gold's centuries of history all but forgotten & the business news anchors laugh at metals.

For contrarians, it's probably a good time to start paying attention.
Everyone has their own view on this asset class.

There is a die-hard Goldbugs camp, there is also a lot of hate towards Gold, plus everything in between.

Gold has become very much disliked in the West, while countries like China & India have a strong tradition towards it.
Gold floated in the early 1970s, but my chart starts in 1988 — cutting out the 70s is maybe not a fair way to measure its performance.

Regardless, it should be clear that Gold has had periods of very strong returns (25% CAGR over a decade) as well as disappointing periods.
Read 8 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
1 Apr
Emerging Markets thread.

The EM stocks have been consolidating for 14 years plagued by one crisis after another.

For their stocks to outperform, we need:

• sustained weaker $USD
• accelerating growth vs DM
• higher commodities (inflation)
• booming global exports (demand) Image
Relative to the US market, Emerging Markets have been underperforming since 2011 — coincides with the bottom in the $USD.

The underperformance is actually worse if we remove the China Tech sector (Tencent, Alibaba, etc).

EM: a value trap or once-in-a-decade buying opportunity? Image
Within the Emerging Economies complex, Asia has been the outperformer while the rest of the countries have lagged considerably.

The chart below shows the EM ex Asia, which recently traded below the March 2009 bottom (11 years ago).

These countries are dirt cheap, in our view. Image
Read 7 tweets
Tiho Brkan Profile picture
31 Mar
Cash levels have constantly remained low throughout this bull market.

The majority are invested & any turbulence sees central banks step in, saving the day.

However, low cash will eventually be a concern when forced liquidation starts since there will be no marginal buyers. Image
S&P 500 is approaching a record valuation of 3 times forward-looking sales.

Even if the market was to crash by -30%, valuations would be expensive since the market would trade at around 2X revenue — this was a top back in the year 2000.

CBs have created a monster bubble. Image
Jeff Gundlach is saying the US stock market is incredibly overpriced by any traditional metric and the next crash will be for the history books.

Thinks the $VIX will spike to never-before-seen levels surpassing the crash of 1987 & 2008.

markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/bi…
Read 16 tweets

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