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24 Apr, 6 tweets, 3 min read
This is precisely why we (as in ๐ŸŒ) can't *just* "tech" our way out of #COVID19
twitter.com/i/events/13856โ€ฆ
We feared "Vaccine Nationalism" a year ago.

Vaccine nationalism is precisely why efforts like ๐Ÿ‘‡ are liable to fail.
What is even more disconcerting is that ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ is an "ally" of ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ via "the Quad", where they promised to work together to boost vaccine production
aljazeera.com/economy/2021/3โ€ฆ
Needless to say, the title of @ChadBown & @TomBollyky is looking more prescient by the day.
foreignaffairs.com/articles/worldโ€ฆ
In the end, this is just the latest episode during #COVID19 illustrating a core point of international relations theory: "Cooperation is difficult in World Politics"
cambridge.org/core/journals/โ€ฆ

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Paul Poast Profile picture
25 Apr
Shocked by the Biden administration's (lack of) response towards the #COVID19 crisis in ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ? Stunned that export constraints are taking priority over humanitarian assistance?

Don't be. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ has a long history of being an a**hole in foreign policy.

[THREAD]
I'm not going to recount every instance in history.

But suffice it to say, they are not all from the Trump era
bloomberg.com/news/articles/โ€ฆ
Instead, let's recount instances where the US refused economic assistance (via exporting a good or providing financial relief) to an ally (formal or nominal) in a crisis.

Those are cases most similar to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ relations at the moment: ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ is a nominal ally (via the Quad).
Read 12 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
22 Apr
@Noahpinion's latest substack illustrates an important general lesson for how ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ approaches "Great Power Competition" w/ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ: don't ignore "small states"

[THREAD]
noahpinion.substack.com/p/ally-with-viโ€ฆ
Noah's article focuses on ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ-๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ relations, directly comparing ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ to the major regional powers in the "Quad": ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ (+๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ)
cnn.com/2021/03/11/asiโ€ฆ
Sure the Quad is important, but ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ is also already in rivalry (๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ), a simmering territorial dispute (๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต), or full-on conflict (๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ) with each of those members.
Read 18 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
18 Apr
With the `clashy' phrase "Anglo-Saxon" trending the past few days, I decided to take a look at the American First Caucus policy platform.

Wow, this group has indeed read way too much Huntington.

[THREAD]
punchbowl.news/wp-content/uplโ€ฆ
Just to clarify, by "clashy" I'm referring to Samuel Huntington's definitely not-not-racist tome "Clash of Civilization"
amazon.com/Clash-Civilizaโ€ฆ
When I teach about Clash, I don't shy away from the racism underpinning it
Read 15 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
16 Apr
Both Biden & Trump announced Afghanistan troop withdrawals. Biden this week and Trump back in February 2020.

Is the media coverage of the two announcements similar or different?

If different, how and why?

[THREAD]
This thread is motivated by the thread from @DrewHolden360...
...and my flippant remark about that thread
Read 31 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
10 Apr
Is the "Democratic Peace" a stronger scientific finding than the link b/w smoking & lung cancer?

That's the claim made in this new @IntOrgJournal paper. Let's unpack it.

[THREAD]
cambridge.org/core/journals/โ€ฆ
Before diving into the paper's specific claim, a few prefacing points.
First, to make sure we're all on the same page, the democratic peace is the claim that democracies rarely fight one another. The below thread covers the history of this "empirical law", reviewing work that I cover in my "Quantitative Security" course

Read 55 tweets
Paul Poast Profile picture
7 Apr
Have questions about the new "Jan 6 Capitol Attacks" study by my @CPOST_UChicago colleagues? Please see their slide deck laying out the methodology and analysis:

d3qi0qp55mx5f5.cloudfront.net/cpost/i/docs/aโ€ฆ Image
My methodological take?

Seems like a useful initial set of results. Image
In case you are wondering, they don't appear to "select on the DV" (they considered counties and states that did AND did not produce insurgents) ImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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