India's vaccine pricing being complicated/politicized.

Three simple principles to follow.

1. Govt. should pay manufacturers reasonable price. This is not the time for haggling and creating uncertainty for private sector, domestic or foreign 1/
2. There should be only ONE price for vaccine jabs all over India. That price should be ZERO. So, vaccines should be free for all

Differentiation and complexity are unethical, unnecessary, and difficult to implement.

Free vaccines for all will avoid vaccine politicization 2/
3. The Center-NOT states-should bear full fiscal "costs" of vaccines.

Why?

--Virus does not respect state borders.
--Center has better access to resources than states
--Fiscal "costs" are trivial compared to lives saved and economic activity preserved n/

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More from @arvindsubraman

29 Mar
Huge thanks to #EconTwitter for engaging enthusiastically and constructively with this piece by Devesh Kapur and me on under-representation of developing country institutions in development economics.

Some preliminary ideas for taking discussion forward 1/
Important to point out that similar points have been made by others in the past (@gchelwa): 2/
Next, a clarification on people vs. place (made eg. by @dmckenzie001:

Research by dvlping country nationals is valuable but cannot substitute for knowledge-creation *IN* poor countries

And numbers on latter are too stark to not merit remedial action 3/
Read 7 tweets
22 Dec 20
1/ Striking, contrasting new findings on Indian govt.'s "New Welfarism" with broader lessons for pol. economy of development & for democratic politics

1. Big gains on New Welfarism, namely, access to essential goods/services

2. But reversal of gains on child stunting
2/ Piece @IndianExpress by @vksdimble @abhishekecon & me based on our analysis of first round of new National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
3/ What's New Welfarism (NW)?

Distinctive, conscious redistribution/inclusion policy:

not prioritizing basic health/education

ambivalence on safety net

Instead, subsidized *govt.* provision of essential *private* goods/services: bank a/cs, toilets, power, fuel, housing, water
Read 9 tweets
21 Oct 20
1/ India's macro-trade-development puzzle stemming from 2 surprising facts

new paper w/@shoumitro_c: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

Puzzle

Post-1991, world's 3rd fastest manufacturing export growth (Fact 1)

despite

Massive under-exports of unskilled labor goods (Fact 2)
2/ Fact 1

India considered inward-oriented economy & premature "deindustrializer: drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rod…

But, for 3 decades, post-1991

Exports a key driver of growth

Not just services but manufacturing exports have grown rapidly (12% annual)

India an east Asian Tiger!
3/ Fact 2

That Indian economy services not manufacturing-based economy well known: pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10…

But *magnitude* of defying comp. advantage striking: missing low-skill exports/production b/w $60-100 bn.

So too is duration. Under-performance several decades old
Read 9 tweets
16 Oct 20
1/ The India-vs.-Bangladesh GDP per capita comparison (post @IMFNews WEO) has sparked anxiety & acrimony

But wrong numbers being compared

NO, on more appropriate metric, India has not been surpassed and, according to IMF, unlikely to be in near future
2/ GDP per capita is an *estimate* for one *indicator* of the average standard of living/welfare in a country

Note the 2 caveats, it is only one indicator, there are many others (eg. human development index)

and even as that indicator, GDP can be measured in many ways
3/ We need to measure "real" GDP in local currency after taking out effects of inflation and

Then, convert all local currency estimates of real GDP into comparable dollars

Many ways of doing this (IMF has 3, World Bank has 4)
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct 20
1/n Second (& final) piece in @IndianExpress by @shoumitro_c & me where we evaluate the twin prescriptions of India’s inward turn: favouring domestic demand over exports (macro) and raising barriers to encourage domestic production (trade): indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
2/n We argue for more openness in areas of opportunity for India, eg. clothing. A key policy is reducing import tariffs on man-made yarn, a critical input to most dynamic export segment. Chart shows these tariffs for key competitors: India’s doubled recently & highest again Image
3/n our first piece in @IndianExpress where we document inward turn & discuss underlying rationale (“myths”) is here: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…
Read 5 tweets
14 Oct 20
Excited about first research outputs from @AshokaUniv Center for Economic Policy (ACEP) on India's Exports and Growth

Research paper: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

Policy paper: ashoka.edu.in/static/doc_upl…

w/ @shoumitro_c

1/ ImageImage
Focus here is on policy paper.

India's inward turn ("atmanirbharta"):
-favoring domestic demand over exports (macro)
-imposing barriers favoring domestic production (trade)
...is consequential

3 questions

1. Is inward turn strong?
2. Is it warranted?
3. Will it work?

2/
Our @IndianExpress piece today (another tomorrow) covers questions 1 and 2: indianexpress.com/article/opinio…

Is Inward turn strong?

Yes: on trade, tariffs up, standstill on trade agreements, and slew of incentives/subsidies for domestic manufacturing.

3/
Read 14 tweets

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