- Hope-Simpson N. Temperate pattern
- April 2020 pattern
Instead of assuming US states dropped in unison at the same time last Spring due to NPIs, we consider natural forces to be predominant.
/3
Leading Indicators:
1) CLI 2) Pos% 3) Illness Onset (Actual Date of Case) 4) Reported Cases
We learned long ago that CLI - COVID-Like Illness % of ER Visits - was the best leading indicator.
On 4/12, we saw peak signals on all 4.
/4
If we did not look for Multi-Factor Consilience, we'd be much more susceptible to single-factor anomalies like the 220% Test dump on 4/14, which gave an artificial rise in Reported Cases trend.
This did not affect us, because we saw Pos% and CLI fall.
/5
Lots of data to look at for AZ. Holiday behavior patterns both for residents (when they get tested) and gov't (when they process the results) are difficult to predict, so it's important to look closely at the details.
First, Cases.
/1
Today, 17k cases were reported, but it's important to know the difference between Report Date and Date of Specimen Collection. You see in my chart that there was a major dip in cases right when very few tests were performed on the 24th-26th despite 2 being weekdays.
/2
Those who would have tested, but didn't, showed up to get tested on the 27-29th. Due to this, we see the 2 highest single case dates on 12/28-12/29, but the 7-day-avg is still lower than the 12/23 peak currently.
- Hospitalizations bottomed 4 weeks ago and then increased tangibly 2 weeks ago. That new increase trend already started abating the past 4 days
- Reported Deaths down 83 Week-over-Week (WoW)
/1
Graph 2: COVID ICU Census vs. Deaths (7DayAvg) vs. Daily Detected Cases
***Case hunting now in mega-hyperdrive and some states now include antigen positives (not antibody)
- 7-Day-Avg Reported Deaths down 15 WoW
- ICUs sizable jump last 2 weeks but peaking again already
/2
Graph 3: Daily Tests + Detected Cases + Case Positivity
***Last 10+ days have seen a real increase in Pos% that coincides with a bump in national CLI
- Test Positivity up 1.0 from trough
- Daily Test avg above 1M for 26 days
- Increase rate much lower than June surge