#GOLD
Why you should only ever buy gold mining stocks and not gold.
#gold
This is going to make me unpopular with some of you, but I am going to explain why you should never buy gold. Do not confuse this with owning gold mining stocks though.
#gold
Gold is a store of value. This is true. In Roman times one ounce of gold would clothe a men nicely and the same is true today.
#gold
So let's look at the alternatives to buying a toga and sandals. Let's assume that 1 acre of prime agricultural land was 5 ounces of gold - the same as about US$9,000 today.
#gold
Let's say I take my ounce of gold and I buy one fifth of an acre and rent it out to a farmer. I get a 2% real rental yield on this, after taxes and expenses. After 35 years I have doubled my money, and my son or daughter re-invests in another fifth of an acre.
#gold
Let's keep the compounding interest simple, and we only re-invest every 35 years, when my land holding is doubled, down the generations. My descendants do this for 2,000 years.
#gold
In that time my family doubles their money 57 times. My original holding of prime agricultural land is has gone from a fifth of an acre to 28,823,037,615,172,000 acres.
Surface area of the Earth is 126 billion acres.
#gold
My descendants now own 228,754 times the surface area of the Earth.
#gold
Conclusion: In the long term gold is something to be traded, but not bought and held.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mark Thompson

Mark Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @METhompson72

26 Apr
#zinc
The global zinc market is, give or take, 13 million tonnes. China is far and away the largest producer with over a third of mine production and smelter capacity. Supply growth in China is static though with new mines barely replacing old mine capacity.
#zinc
Zinc’s main use is as a anti-corrosion coating on steel in the construction and automotive industries. This is called galvanization. Other uses include alloy (brass mainly) die-casting precision components and as a fertiliser additive.
#zinc
Consumption growth is highly correlated to Global economic growth - 2.5x geared to growth above/below 2.5%. (i.e. zero consumption growth at 2.5%, but 5% consumption GDP growth of 4.5%.)
Read 15 tweets
26 Apr
#tin
Tin is the 49th most abundant element within the Earth and has the chemical symbol Sn, which is derived from the Latin word “Stannum”. Crustal abundance is only 2 parts per million (“ppm”) compared with 75 ppm for zinc, 50 ppm for copper, and 14 ppm for lead.
#tin Tin mining dates back at least 4000 years to the Bronze Age, when tin was alloyed with copper to make bronze. Tin does not occur as the native element but must be extracted from oxide ores. Cassiterite (SnO2) is the only commercially important source of tin.
#tin Cassiterite is insoluble in water and erosional processes of deposits often results in placer deposits. Maybe 70% of all historic tin production has come from hydraulic mining or dredging of these alluvial type deposits, where grades as low as 0.015% tin can be economic.
Read 19 tweets
26 Apr
#Tin
The secret to tin investment is easy if you focus on 3 things: mineralogy, mineralogy and mineralogy.
#tin Cassiterite is THE ONLY commercially valuable tin mineral. Most hard rock tin deposits contain some stannite (tin sulphide) and tin silicates. Look at the cassiterite grade, NOT tin grade.
#tin Alluvial deposits are more attractive generally than hard rock as they are 100% cassiterite. Cassiterite is dense with a specific gravity of 7 so water action concentrates it in placer type deposits.
Read 6 tweets
26 Apr
#copper
A smelter buys a 30% copper concentrate at a TC of $40 + 40c / lb RC. This basis the LME copper price of $9,000 per tonne. The copper content of one tonne of concentrate is 300kg. (30% of 1t). It is worth $2,700 (0.3t x 9,000 per t)
#copper
So if a smelter buys at a TC of $10, they are buying copper at a discount of $55 only. Their costs are still $200. So if they hedge forward sell when they buy the concentrate they are locking in a loss of $145.
#copper
So bringing this thread all together and explaining what it means.
1. TC's are trading at a level where smelters cannot make money.
2. This can only happen when smelters have consumed all available profitable stocks
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr
#copper
I keep seeing this Wood-Mackenzie chart in every copper presentation. I started my career in 1994 when the market was about 10Mt and Sumitomo embarked on a massive attempted copper market squeeze.
#copper
There are copper projects out there, of course, and they are all raising capital and advancing feasibility studies. But I strongly contend that there are not enough and they cannot be built in time to meet expected demand.
#copper
10 years of below trend copper exploration has consequences.
My very strong view is the only way out of this situation is for the copper price to go to a level where demand is substituted or destroyed.
Read 26 tweets
19 Mar
Investing in #Tungsten
I start off each series on investing in a different metal talking about mineralogy – this will be no different! There are 2 commercially valuable mineral types in tungsten – scheelite (calcium tungstate) and the wolframite series (iron-manganese tungstate.)
Scheelite is generally speaking easier and cheaper to recover than wolframite, mainly because it is recoverable via gravity and flotation means whereas wolframite only by gravity. Scheelite fluoresces which can make a trip to an underground #tungsten mine very interesting!
Both scheelite and wolframite are brittle meaning that they are liable to produce unrecoverable slimes during processing. These #tungsten minerals have a very high specific gravity though, of 6 g/cm3 and 7 g/cm3 respectively, making gravity separation relatively simple.
Read 21 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!