Innovation concentration is higher in bear markets than bulls.
Bull markets bring a flood of attention, capital, and talent, which expands crypto’s reach.

But they’re also awash with noise, and as values rise complacency can settle in even amongst the committed.
In bear markets, investors and entrepreneurs both feel a sense of urgency.

Even if they retain conviction, the world and Mr. Market is screaming they’re wrong.
Such a challenge sharpens thinking, heightens urgency, and drives execution, all of which concentrates innovation.
As a public market investor, if you play this cyclically you buy through everyone selling (bear), and you sell through everyone buying (bull).

Cathie used to call this being a “liquidity provider” in my ARK days.
Top and bottom-ticking is fool’s gold for most, but leaning against a trend over time is very doable with foresight & discipline.
Venture investing through these innovation cycles is more nuanced, will leave that for another day ☺️

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More from @cburniske

28 Apr
The 0 to 1 moment is an institution seriously considering a #cryptoasset like $BTC at all.

Once there, stepping into the rest of crypto is incremental in comparison.
Cryptoasset purity was important for establishing $BTC's credibility in the early knock-off altcoin years.

With the credible innovation we now see in the rest of crypto, such purity will soon appear just as antiquated as the Puritans.
Once a trend is established, people naturally ask:

What's next?
Read 4 tweets
25 Apr
Large unlocks of tokens are a complex event that interface with market psychology.

Simply put, large unlocks can be bullish catalysts in bulls, and bearish catalysts in bears.

They unlock liquidity to continue the prevailing trend.
Emerging from the 18/19 bear market into this bull, some were surprised to find bullish price action after an unlock.

Similarly, when we descend into a bear from this bull, some will be surprised to find unlocks serving as a bearish catalyst.
Relatedly, take extra care with the intentions of communities that have tokens with fully-diluted valuations that dwarf the circulating value.
Read 4 tweets
23 Apr
For those worried I don’t like $BTC:
My earliest work in crypto was all around $BTC at @ARKInvest, and while I focus on a number of networks these days, I’m still fascinated by #Bitcoin.
I’m confident $BTC pulls through here and on a 5-10 year time frame keep my eyes on gold parity: $10T+ network value, ~$500K per coin.
Read 4 tweets
10 Apr
Right now it’s murmured that “decentralized governance” slows down decision-making.

What if that’s a temporary truth?
Perhaps we haven’t standardized the right forms of “distributed governance” that accelerate group decision-making through flexible consensus rules.
Watching some of the boutique investment DAOs — which can out execute traditional investment firms due to lightweight gov structures 👀 — this distributed & accelerated decision-making is already possible in some contexts.
Read 12 tweets
3 Apr
For crypto, an original sin we regularly observe is insiders owning too much of systems that are marketed as public, egalitarian networks.…
While “fair distribution” is a normative judgment, it flows from what we see as a consensus belief within crypto: creating level playing-fields where everyone has a chance at financial sovereignty.
If a small group of insiders regularly take ~half of the fully-diluted upside (which is common), we’re seriously kneecapping the redistributive effects of this technology in order to make a handful of people obscenely rich.
Read 7 tweets
22 Feb
Everything a company can do, a #DAO will do better.
While the current reality of #DAOs is a long way from the promise, speed of progress is 👀👀
Wait until the "composability" that is much-touted in #DeFi starts hitting mainstream realization for #DAOs.
Read 4 tweets

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