Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

Lots of talk about "rules-based order" the past few days (thx to @SecBlinken & @60Minutes).

The phrase might make you go 🤔 or 🙄 or even 🤷‍♂️.

Where did it come from? What does it mean?

[THREAD]

ICYMI, the comment prompting this thread came from the below interview

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1388993597442244608

Blinken didn't make up the phrase "rules-based order".

For instance, James Mattis used it to open a presentation to Donald Trump on the value and purpose of US foreign policy:

“The post-war international rules-based order is the greatest gift of the greatest generation.”

That did not go over well. As Steve Bannon reportedly remarked, “If you stood up and threatened to shoot [Trump], he couldn’t say ‘postwar rules-based international order.’ It’s just not the way he thinks.”

washingtonpost.com/politics/youre…

But the phrase pre-dates Trump. According to @google Ngrams, it began appearing in texts in 1989.

1989? Some big things happened that year

So the phrase is clearly associated with the end of the Cold War. This was the time when @FukuyamaFrancis's "End of History" gained steam
amazon.com/End-History-La…

But as the Ngram shows, usage of "rules-based order" took off starting in the early-to-mid 2000s.

Why? Well, I'm positive it was partially (mostly?) in response to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, particularly since it was done WITHOUT UN authorization.

More insight can be gained by looking at the first notable use of the phrase: the 2006 final report of the "Princeton Project" co-directed by John Ikenberry and @SlaughterAM.
peacepalacelibrary.nl/ebooks/files/3…

As @SlaughterAM explains in this @CFR_org interview, the report was inspired by Kennan's 'X' article in foreign affairs.
cfr.org/event/forging-…

I know what you're thinking, "oh no, not another attempt to copy Kennan!"

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1355512291672915972

Regardless of what you think of the Kennan reference, the report uses the phrase "rules-based order" just one time in a key passage.

The passage is important for two reasons.

First, it suggests that the phrase means cooperation among liberal democracies.

It's closely tied to another, more common phrase in the report: "liberal order", defined as the network of big & small international institutions.

We could have a whole other thread (or threads) unpacking exactly what is meant by "liberal international order".

Suffice it to say, it's closely tied to the other director of the Princeton Project: Ikenberry
press.princeton.edu/books/hardcove…

Second, the passage states that the order must be underwritten by the US maintaining a coalition of militarily dominant liberal democracies to prevent "great power security competition" with autocracies.

In other words, liberal order needs USA primacy.

Of course, as @stephenwertheim shows, that's not a new goal.
hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?is…

Given Slaughter's role in crafting this report, it's not a surprise that the phrase would take off over the next decade: Slaughter would become Director of Policy Planning (a position Kennan held) at the beginning of the Obama Administration.

And whereas Trump wouldn't use the phrase "international order" or "rules-based order" even if you threatened to shoot him, Obama embraced the phrase.

For example, he said the following before the UN in 2016

obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-offi…

@DrIanHall documents the use of this phrase by the Obama administration vis-a-vis its "Indo-Pacific" policy

jstor.org/stable/pdf/269…

There is more that can be said about the phrase "rules-based order", including why it's redundant. But that's for another thread (hint: read Bull)
amazon.com/Anarchical-Soc…

For now, at least we know where the phrase came from (the early 2000s)...and what it means (coalition of liberal democracies supported by US primacy).

[END]

Addendum: For more on the role of the "Princeton Project" in shaping calls for "rules-based order" in US policy circles, definitely read @PatPorter76's "False Promise" book!

wiley.com/en-us/The+Fals…

Addendum 2: Two other pieces help to show how the phrase really took off during the Obama administration (with Australian influence)

First, see this Victoria University of Wellington Law Review piece by Shirley V Scott.
ojs.victoria.ac.nz/vuwlr/article/…

Second, see this @CambridgeCRIA piece by @ABreuer_Harvard & Iain Johnston (which also flags its early use by @MrKRudd)

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…