Share this page!

Maybe Scrolly?
HRouge Profile picture
Twitter logo
5 May, 5 tweets, 2 min read
The effects of Covid at $IDN are becoming harder to ignore.

Q4/2019 - Q2/2020: figures to hand, exact responses Image
Q3/2020: a bit of waffling but eventually a rough number Image
Q1/2021: only a vague awareness of trends, forgetfulness and cognitive confusion Image
Is it this or something else? Image
Another gaslighting episode dressed up as a conference call for $IDN. Worth it though, for that one thousand dollars in sequential growth Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with HRouge

HRouge Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @hareng_rouge

HRouge Profile picture
9 Nov
IG Design #IGR was a ten bagger in the 5 years leading up to Covid. An update a fortnight ago dropped the shares by half and erased all the gains in the most recent five years. Knife catching and broken growth this soon is almost always a mistake but IG may be an exception here. ImageImageImage
My basic premise with it is that the accounts are a complicated nightmare (CTRL+f for "adjust" is 232 hits in the last FY report) but most immediately, that this is right now a gross margin story - I think there are grounds to at least consider whether IG can be given a pass here
Unfortunately, it does mean walking through it so grab a.. (just no) so anyway, here's the rough idea: Pre-covid in white, M&A growth darling, 20% gross margins. Forget the op margin for now - I'm stripping out the adjustments that made adjusted whatever go up and to the right Image
Read 20 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
5 Oct
Saw a one-line tweet the other day mentioning McColls #MCLS as one of 2 highest conviction names.

I think I see why: there's a metamorphosis happening underneath and reasonable path to PE and FCF multiples between 2-3 plus a growth narrative, all under that lovely grim exterior
Story is that they're shrinking. 1500+ stores 2 years back, to 1050 by the end of FY21

Also changing: culling small newsagent shops to focus towards larger, more profitable grocery-heavy stores. So far, so worthy - but the real interest is the transformation into Morrisons Daily
Company raised recently to accelerate a programme converting 350 stores into these Mini Morrisons. They're at 56 today, will be 350 by end FY22

Cost is £90K per shop, what they call "cash payback" is 2-3 years and so far they're providing pretty immediate LFL sales growth of 25%
Read 12 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
23 Sep
What does Sneller see to get such sudden FOMO for the old zombie that is Iofina #IOF? If you recall the name, it should produce revulsion but a few things have changed and there's a chance it may be about to make some money. ImageImage
IOF produces Iodine in the US via O&G brine. Iodine is a beneficiary of industrial recovery generally and covid specifically - the largest use is used as x-ray contrast which may benefit demand from catch up on delayed hospital treatment.

And because it's 2021, inevitably: Image
Production is trapped on the wrong side of the Pacific: the two major production centres are Japan and Chile - so you have the obvious logistics issues for both and potentially politics for the latter.
Read 12 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
20 Aug
I think it's worth revisiting Aquis #AQX here in light of a couple of data points that have since come out.

There are three main parts to the co: a stock exchange (AQSE); a tech licencing biz and their multilateral trading facility (AQXE) - it's this last one I want to look at.
First is the RNS from earlier this month announcing their MTF (investopedia.com/terms/m/multil…) had achieved 6.2% market share. Across the €53.6B traded on AQXE in July, this came out to €1.7B a day.

Those 6.2% and €1.7B are quite significant numbers and I'll come back to them later Image
In the period since the beginning of 2018 market share has risen from 1.72% to that 6.2% above. Here's how that value traded looks. Image
Read 15 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
10 Jun
Someone else has also since mentioned $JAKK to me - it's a (shitco) toy maker, similar to Character Group #CCT in the UK. CC's tweet mentions the refi, he has a point - I think there may be something here to play for, perhaps towards a double or so before the end of the year.
Company has cash of $80M + new debt of $99M (pink) repays difference on prior debt of $129M with cash on hand (green) so $50M cash + debt $99M

6,395 shares at $10.6, converts at $5.65 (purple) into $18.9M (blue) so + 3,345 shares = 9,740 / $103 cap & $20M prefs (grey) $172M EV
As you can see it's highly seasonal into Q3. Mgmt mentioned in the last (Q1) call that inventories are low. Typically they would be about $20M higher than here in Q2, so if we penalise the cash in the EV by that amount to account for inventory build we're at $192M
Read 12 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
4 Mar
Over the next decade or so, Transense #TRT will receive royalties on 6000+ of $GE's military helicopter engines and on many Bridgestone mining tires

Simple order of magnitude numbers suggest that the current cap of £12M may be undervaluing these cashflows quite substantially
It's not a complicated co but there are four parts to this. To help keep track, I'll deal with them in the following order:

1. Bridgestone (discounted 0.5x-1.5x+ cap)
2. Helis (anywhere from undiscounted 1x-10x cap)
3. Free optionalities
4. Tire probes (modest percentage of cap)
TRT makes advanced sensors.

On the Bridgestone side of things, the sensors monitor all aspects of super-large mining trucks' tire condition and provide geofencing and advanced capabilities for. Beyond likely cashflows the optionality here is to expand within the B'Stone range.
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @hareng_rouge has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @hareng_rouge!

Read all threads by @hareng_rouge

:(