Someone else has also since mentioned $JAKK to me - it's a (shitco) toy maker, similar to Character Group #CCT in the UK. CC's tweet mentions the refi, he has a point - I think there may be something here to play for, perhaps towards a double or so before the end of the year.
Company has cash of $80M + new debt of $99M (pink) repays difference on prior debt of $129M with cash on hand (green) so $50M cash + debt $99M

6,395 shares at $10.6, converts at $5.65 (purple) into $18.9M (blue) so + 3,345 shares = 9,740 / $103 cap & $20M prefs (grey) $172M EV
As you can see it's highly seasonal into Q3. Mgmt mentioned in the last (Q1) call that inventories are low. Typically they would be about $20M higher than here in Q2, so if we penalise the cash in the EV by that amount to account for inventory build we're at $192M
Giving a trailing EV/LTM EBITDA of x4.8 and looking for significantly increased profitability this year - and that against some easier comps
Toy sales are booming…
And JAKK doesn't seem too badly placed for the categories called out by the article above
And yes, they do have Raya too
If you assume they increase their revenues in line with the overall toy industry growth figure of +27% and do $51M (vs $40) in EBITDA then their current valuation comes out at 3.75x - even for a shitco, this is quite cheap. Hold the multiple at 4.8x and the shares are $16, up 50%
The measly rise in the shares since the refi announcement implies these savings being capitalised at 2-3x - again, that's perhaps on the low side. Half a turn more on the multiple and $51M EBITDA has shares at $18.6 vs today's mid $10
Estimates suggest $39M EBITDA for FY21, my guess would be that they're perhaps on the low side given the comments on the call and this point from the toynews article
Q1/21 revenues were up 26% but the estimates for the money making quarter are down 5%, seems a little incongruous to me.
#CCT in the UK at end April reported revs up 44% in the HY to Feb and already had this to say about the H2. UK isn't the US but with a refi barely priced in and a fair environment for toy sales, some sales growth and multiple expansion for $JAKK don't seem too unreasonable to me

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More from @hareng_rouge

4 Mar
Over the next decade or so, Transense #TRT will receive royalties on 6000+ of $GE's military helicopter engines and on many Bridgestone mining tires

Simple order of magnitude numbers suggest that the current cap of £12M may be undervaluing these cashflows quite substantially
It's not a complicated co but there are four parts to this. To help keep track, I'll deal with them in the following order:

1. Bridgestone (discounted 0.5x-1.5x+ cap)
2. Helis (anywhere from undiscounted 1x-10x cap)
3. Free optionalities
4. Tire probes (modest percentage of cap)
TRT makes advanced sensors.

On the Bridgestone side of things, the sensors monitor all aspects of super-large mining trucks' tire condition and provide geofencing and advanced capabilities for. Beyond likely cashflows the optionality here is to expand within the B'Stone range.
Read 25 tweets
22 Feb
Unfortunately this involves banks, turnarounds and LendingClub $LC but I think something potentially quite interesting may be happening here, due to this acquisition:
When I mentioned to Munger and Buffett the other day that I was reading up on LendingClub this was the reaction - and they're not too wrong: LC is crap
However, the business model is a little different these days and if my guess is right, it may all end up becoming little more than a vestigial artifact, like Chamath's legs

Where things stand now is that it's no longer so much a P2P lender.
Read 18 tweets
26 Jan
For a long time I thought computational drug modelling really had only one listed company: $SLP

Turns out maybe not: Physiomics #PYC could be a decent candidate for a comp.

Growth is inflecting, it has optionalities and thanks to AIM obscurity it's on a fwd EV/Sales of 6.5x
I first bought $SLP in April 2013. I mention this to make the point that was long before the current bubble in futuristic healthcare stocks, or before SaaS was a thing, this was already a punishingly expensive sector.

Here are the multiples you would've seen back then
Now, $SLP and #PYC are similar but not the same.

SLP was pure software to model drug absorption, sold on licence. It had incredible margins but slow, steady growth. In 2013 it did $10M in revs and in the most recent like-for-like split, FY19, it did $20: ~+10% a year or so
Read 13 tweets
15 Jan
Some notes on TFF Pharmaceuticals $TFFP from the HC Wainwright call

20 mins long, link to call below…
This previous thread about TFF was conjecture and I think the Wainwright call gave some grounds to think it may not totally off the mark.

This is again the idea: Pfizer wants to get a powder version of the Covid vaccine in order to avoid the cold-chain issues and expenses associated with the first-gen vaccine Image
Read 8 tweets
13 Jan
Summer 20: investment co with a one holding - a REIT - gets rid of its directors after the REIT collapsed into a zombie.

Sep 20: new management, new investment: a software company with 23% pre-tax margins

Nov 20: 60% growth, big client wins

Implied valuation today <5x sales Image
There are no other numbers, this is everything there is.

The holdco is called Drumz #DRUM a £2.4M cap
The zombie is a listed REIT called KCR
The software company is called Acuity Risk Management

I have it at an implied trailing sales of ~4.9x ex £500K holdco cash and ex zombie Image
Acuity's product is called STREAM, here's how they describe it:

STREAM is a cyber security and risk management software used by organizations globally for ISO 27001, GDPR, NIST and many other standards

In short, its not a nice-to-have for big companies
Read 20 tweets
11 Jan
TLDR: headlines like the below may be masking something interesting at ReNeuron - a medical platform business

As #MXCT and $CLPT show, these sell high

Direct NASDAQ comp valued 5x higher

#RENE platform has an imminent catalyst, which may be derisked.…
Disclaimers as follows:

- I am far, far out of my lane looking at this
- The comp lives in a bubble market
- This is 100% based on crude pattern recognition
- Market appears to value #RENE for other aspects, so
- This may not work even if the idea proves correct
So, #RENE may have what may be one of the Next Big Things: a platform for the cutting edge of genetic medicine - the comp lives off that alone.

In English, they use "exosomes" to try to get mRNA and CRISPR molecules past the blood-brain barrier into the brain. See below Image
Read 21 tweets

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