Thread by @agrawalmanindra

<Update on 6/5> @stellensatz I am finding it increasingly difficult to post updates. Hence, getting a website prepared that will do the job. Hope it will be ready by tomorrow. That will allow me to focus more on discussions.

Many posters have pointed out erroneous predictions done for second wave in early April. I already explained the reasons in India thread. If they do not sound convincing, please pay no attention to our predictions. I am sure there are better things to do!😊

For those, who find some value in our predictions, here are updates. Maharashtra continues its downward journey. Notice that orange curve is fitting better now! It is because I updated the simulation with data up to 5th May. Earlier one was with data up to 24th April.

Chhattisgarh continues to hover. It is almost horizontal! This simulation is also updated with up to date data now.

UP is now clearly going down. The slope is slower than predicted though. The simulation is updated as well.

Bihar curve was indeed going through a phase change! It occurred around 24th April. There is barely enough data to capture it with some confidence. More data is required though to get the trajectory right.

Delhi seems on a downward journey now! The mystery of such an early bend is explained, at least in part, by curves of Noida, Ghaziabad, and Gurugram. All are rising well beyond projected peak. It appears many people have moved from Delhi to these cities.

Rajasthan is nearing the peak.

Tamil Nadu curve has finally deviated from predicted trajectory and is peeking out a bit.

Karnataka parameters are stable now. It is likely to peak during May 10-15.

Gujarat has peaked and is on its way down!

So has MP. Although its downward slope is very gentle as of now.

Andhra trajectory required a bit of adjustment. Peak is now during May 10-15.

Haryana has gone beyond the peak! Is it a new phase? Or simply due to Gurugram numbers being increased by migration from Delhi? We will know in a few days.

Jharkhand is oscillating at the peak!

Odisha continues to diverge. It is likely due to lockdown imposed. Need a few more days data to capture it as a new phase.

Telangana has also peaked and is on its way down.

West Bengal is peaking about now.

Kerala also projected to peak about now. It has diverged from the projected trajectory for past two days though.

Adding Assam. Trajectory not fully stabilized yet, but peak does not appear too far.

Adding Uttarakhand. It appears near the peak.

Finally Punjab. It makes a re-entry after several weeks! The phase-shift of early-April has stabilized but not fully. So the predictions are uncertain.