Thread by @ignis_fatum

The fact that 0 rockets have been fired from the strip , - rioting on the border and 0 burning balloons were launched - shows how Hamas can control everything , and how much of bullshit this “errant fire” excuse that arouses each time
#Israel #Gaza

On the other hand , surprised that the #Gaza factions have not retaliated yet towards #Israel .
A retaliation will come 100% don’t be fooled, maybe just preparing a massive rocket barrage like during the May4-5th 2019 escalation .
#Israel #Jerusalem

2 logical options :
1.Resumption of all so called “Border units” will be sufficient ,for now, for the #Gaza factions.
2. Massive rocket attack that will be the starting act of an escalation that will occur in the near future like happened in November 2018 and May 2019
#Israel

For me , currently , the first option seems far more likely , as Hamas will want to save all its forces for Monday which is “#Jerusalem Day”
#Israel #Gaza

https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1390808836643213313

If the 2nd option will be more likely , you will see , already beginning this morning , restrictions on civilian activities by the HFC , roads will be blocked along the border , beaches and tourist sites near the #Gaza border will be closed and so on
#Israel #Jerusalem

https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1390808836643213313

Tweet from 06:45 AM May 4th 2019 below ⬇️
#Israel #Gaza

https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1124519762556608513

And then precisely in 10:00 AM it began ⬇️

https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1124569353763065860

1st option it is 🤷🏼‍♂️
#Israel #Gaza

https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1390808836643213313

Don’t forget that Hamas , under Yahiya Sinwar , initiated rounds of massive rocket fire towards #Israel only when Hamas has a clear target in mind , and that the target was doable by Israel (like increasing or speeding up the Qatari payments etc)
#Gaza

The current situation is far from this. Hamas has no doable goals to demand from Israel.
Stopping the violence in #Jerusalem is counterproductive to Hamas’s cause, which was , in all recent years , to cause an escalation in the #WestBank and #Jerusalem.

The Qatari payments are running like clockwork, the international humanitarian projects in Gaza are mostly out of #Israel’s reach, Israel is not shooting live ammo at the rioters on the #Gaza border fence , just like the group demanded from Israel during 1 of those escalations.

Also , a possible conflict in #Gaza will quickly shift all the worlds attention to itself , including from Sheikh Jarrakh and Jerusalem , which can have a deescalatory effect on the situation in the #WestBank and #Jerusalem , opposite to what Hamas wants.