1/ Whenever a competitor makes a move (new product feature, pricing, segment, etc), the worst thing to do is dismiss it if it doesn’t make sense at first. Instead, ask yourself;
1) Why are they doing this? What’s the end game?
2) What’s the insight they know that we don’t?
2/ The second question is built on the premise that your competitors are smart and capable. You should assume there was a lot of research, debate, etc for each move. A many of times have I called something “stupid” only to realize afterwards I just didn’t dig deep enough.
3/ The worst position to be in is losing market share to a competitor without even understanding how they’re doing it. Often times I traced this back to some kind of change in tactics or strategy that we were aware of but didn’t fully understand or appreciate. Sometimes too late!
4/ This is one of the reasons why startups can go unmolested by large incumbents for so long even though everything they do is out in the open. The incumbent doesn’t “get it” and dismisses aggressive competitive moves as trivial or doomed.
5/ DoorDash targeting the suburbs, Booking.com leveraging the agency model, Amazon Prime, and Shopee targeting FMCG and fashion. All examples of a co’s that operated under the radar because competition didn’t appreciate the insight they had started a actioning on.
6/ iPhone is probably the best example of this. Took years to develop in secrecy and Blackberry initially dismissed it (“it doesn’t even have a stylus!”). The insight Jobs had was that by using a touch screen you could abstract away hardware. #BB fate was already sealed at launch
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As you can see from the chart, COVID created a lot of volatility. Unlike in Europe and North America, a lot of restaurants were forced to close, esp in Q1 2020.
2/ You can also see they've been aggressively cutting costs. Adj EBITDA % losses as a % of revenue rapidly going down.
3/ Exciting growth ahead for India over the next few decades (anxiously waiting for more Indian IPOs).
1/ Something that keeps me excited about $UBER is it’s global operations. One of the secret sauces to scaling up Uber Eats so quickly was that we had small teams around the world ready to help launch a new product.
2/ Unlike a $GOOG or $FB, Uber is extremely decentralized. Partly because it’s a physical product and partly because execution and strategy require a lot of “boots on the ground” for localization (regulations, marketing, competition, etc).
3/ You have some centralized resources such as engineering, product, etc., largely based in San Fransisco. Then there’s Central Operations, they run scaled processes better done at a continental level (Latam, Europe, etc). And then you have Local Operations.
1/ I spent a few years at Uber Eats watching us sometimes struggle to grow new businesses on top of rides. After a while I noticed a similar pattern at other big tech co's ($FB, $GOOG, $AMZN, $MSFT, etc). Below are my thoughts on why this happens and how it's related to marketing
2/ First, if you look at most big tech, they were all primarily started by engineers or "technophiles" and their core product grew virally with very little traditional marketing. Instead, there was a focus on "growth hacks" and improving the CX
3/ The consequence of this is that as the co grew, power, budget, and attention accrued to the engineering and product teams. Most importantly, the success of the original core biz created a dogmatic belief that "the best product wins" and "if you build it they will come"
1/ People often talk about $FB's network effects but for me what really flies under the radar is their SMB acquisition engine. This is part of a three step playbook that they've replicated for reach of their properties (Facebook "Blue App", Instagram, etc.)
2/ Step 1 - focus on user acquisition, engagement, and retention. Once they understand the primary behaviours and moments of delight that hook users and drive stickiness, do everything possible with the product to reinforce this.
3/ Step 2 - create organic opportunities and free tools for businesses to interact with users in the product. For ex., FB has >140M Business Pages. These pages not only provide utility to users and familiarize businesses with FB tools but they act as a funnel into step 3.
1/ It's a misconception that superior restaurant supply creates an impenetrable network effect amongst food delivery platforms. Yes - the below flywheel from $DASH's prospectus is real. Restaurant supply increases demand which in turn increases restaurant supply, and so forth.
2/ But the key is to understand that resto supply shows a diminishing return to network effects (see chart).
Restos fall into three categories; chains, differentiated SMBs ("local favourites") and undifferentiated SMBs. Local favs are the unique must haves, the top 10%.
3/ Local favs are so beloved and desired by consumers, they'll download a platform's app just to order from it. And they'll switch apps if the resto leaves. These are must haves, and platforms often provide lucrative incentives to sign them up exclusively.
1/ Been following $BABA comments on FinTwit, not an expert but some observations and thoughts:
(1) Lots of ppl selling seemed to have bought the stock speculatively; assuming it'll go up and to the right (2) China experts I've spoken to think the 13% drop is a major overreaction
(3) IMO if your primary source of info is the WSJ that's probably a red flag. Owning $BABA probably requires either first hand research and a network of experts. If not, then your going to be out arbitraged based on information flow alone (let alone the follow on analysis)
(4) In general, ppl have a hard time pricing political / regulatory risk. Ie. I'd approach it as a 20% chance of a 30% decrease in future cash flows = 6% discount to current price. Unable to calculate the risk, ppl bifurcate it as 0% or 100%. The latter sold their shares