I moderated a post-Session panel today for the Tampa Chamber of Commerce
I was surprised to hear lawmakers flat-out say they view this new Compact as an "expansion" of gambling in Florida.
This raises at least two possible scenarios given that Fla. voters just amended the Constitution to limit gambling expansion.
1. The lawmakers are against the Compact because they view it as expansion and they want to uphold the will of people.
Or...
2. Lawmakers agree that the Compact is expansion but they will, like legislators before them, put the will of the people to the side, and vote for the Compact.
The panel also reinforced what I am hearing about where the House stands on the Compact and that is, 'the House has made no promises' re: support for Compact and that the Speaker has made it clear this is a 'jump ball' vote and members are free to vote as they want.
Not that House members aren't always free to vote as they want.
But I think there is trouble in the House for the Compact.
How do House members running in competitive primaries for the Senate OR are fearful of being drawn into a re-election primary explains to conservative voters they voted for sports betting controlled by the Tribe?
Then again, this trouble may not be trouble.
Did anyone notice that a lobbyist who was signed to work against Compact quickly de-registered from new client? That's the Gov Office and Sen Prez putting the smack down.
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.@SenRickScott voted in favor of the objection to @JoeBiden's win in Pennsylvania in the face of his own Republican colleague, Pat Toomey, saying there was 'no evidence of significant fraud' in the election.
A dozen members of the Delegation voted against certifying @JoeBiden’s electoral college victory.
@realDonaldTrump What you should understand is that Pinellas' population and demographics are extrordinarily stable, esp. when compared to other counties in Florida.
The voters who voted in 2016 are the people who are being polled now.
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@realDonaldTrump Pinellas is as bipartisan as it gets: A GOP U.S. Rep in the northern part of the county, a Democrat in the south part. GOP slightly dominates legislative delegation, but biggest city is led by a Democrat. County Commission is 4-3 Democrat, but countywide officials are Republican.
Florida Democrats hold a considrable advantage over @FloridaGOP through the first phase of voting in Florida (voting-by-mail but no in-person early voting).
@FloridaGOP 79% of Florida Republicans who voted in all of the previous four elections have yet to cast a ballot.
Democrats have 65.3% of their 4/4 voters.
This represents a 474,484 voter advantage for Republicans.
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@FloridaGOP Among voters who voted in three of the past four elections, Republicans have 87% yet to vote while Democrats have 73.9% of their 3/4’s remaining.
This represents a 70,643 voter advantage for Republicans.
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I spent a lot of time this past week talking to upper echelon of @realDonaldTrump’s team in Florida.
1. They’re buoyed by the data they see; they’re looking at models from three sources and they say numbers are encouraging.
2. There is enormous relief within Trump Florida team that the principal is back on the campaign trail. They say this is their number one advantage. They say their is a direct link with a Trump swing through Florida and poll movements.