Thread by @TheValuesVoter

Okay. So now let’s look at the exit polls for Georgia. Another one of the supposedly “stolen” states which Trump lost.

The first thing to consider when thinking about Trump’s losses in Arizona and Georgia is how relatively narrowly he won the states in 2016.

https://twitter.com/TheValuesVoter/status/1392741908091449345

In 2016, Trump won Arizona and Georgia, states that had been red for decades, by a smaller percentage margin than by which he won Ohio and Iowa, states that Obama had just won twice.

Trump in 2016 won:
- AZ by 3.5 points
- GA by 5.1 points
- OH by 8.1 points
- IA by 9.4 points

Like Arizona, Trump’s problems in Georgia did not begin in 2020. Look at the drop off in GOP margin between 2012 and 2016 which came before the drop off between 2016 and 2020.

So what explains this drop? Let’s look at the exit polls, which asked people who they just voted for.

So, again, here are the links to the exit polls. Check me. Check everybody. Verify everything yourself. Don’t automatically believe anything anybody says about anything.

cnn.com/election/2016/…

cnn.com/election/2020/…

In Georgia, in 2016, Trump won Men 60-37 (+23).

In Georgia, in 2020, Trump won Men 55-43 (+12).

That’s an 11 point decline with Georgia Men.

In Georgia, in 2016, Trump lost Women 43-54.

In Georgia, in 2020, Trump lost Women 45-54.

He gained 2 points with Georgia women.

In Georgia, in 2016, Trump lost College Grads 48-49 (-1).

In Georgia, in 2020, Trump lost College Grads 42-57 (-15).

Trump dropped 14 points with this group.

In Georgia, in 2016, Trump won Non-College Grads 54-43 (+11).

In Georgia, in 2020, Trump won Non-College Grads 54-45 (+9).

Trump dropped 2 points with them.

In Georgia, in 2016, Trump won White College Grads 69-28 (+41).

In Georgia, in 2029, Trump won White College Grads 55-44 (+11).

Trump lost THIRTY points with White College Grads in Georgia. In 4 years’ time.

(At this point in time, you’re probably beginning to understand how Trump’s margins continued to drop in Georgia after already dropping in 2016. And we didn’t even have to look for bamboo or exhume Hugo Chavez! Logic is easy!)

In Georgia, in 2016, Trump won White Non-College Grads 81-15 (+66).

In Georgia, in 2020, Trump won White Non-College Grads 79-20 (+59).

Trump lost 7 points with this group.

In 2016, in Georgia, Trump lost Non-White College Grads 16-82 (-66).

In 2020, in Georgia, Trump lost Non-White College Grads 16-83 (-1).

He lost a point.

Trump did better with Non-White Non-College Grads.

In 2016 in GA, Trump lost this group 13-85 (-72).

In 2020 in GA, Trump lost them 19-80 (-61).

Which is an 11 point improvement.

Trying to be a little more brief now because you’ve seen where the math is coming from, Trump also lost in margin between 2016 and 2020 in Georgia:

3 points among GA Democrats
2 points among GA Republicans
20 points among GA Independents
15 points among white voters in Georgia.

Trump gained a net 3 points among black voters in Georgia. And he gained a net 15 points among latino voters in Georgia.

But in this state which Trump won in 2016 by not such a great margin to begin with, he lost a lot of ground with a lot of the population.

Again, no voting machines were involved in the tabulation of exit polling. It’s a poll that asks people who they voted for. And this independent source of data is completely consistent with a certified vote tally that shows that Trump lost the state of Georgia. Look at the data.

And the pre-election polls that showed that Trump was in trouble in Georgia starting at the beginning of October was only off by 1.3 points. The RCP Average suggested that Trump would win Georgia. But by the barest of margins.