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15 May, 10 tweets, 3 min read
So here, in charts and tables, are the exit polls for the five states that flipped in the 2020 election.

Arizona - the trend of the state (clearly trending toward the Dems after 2012) and the groups Trump improved/declined with between 2016, when he won and 2020, when he lost.
Arizona - exit poll comparisons between 2016 and 2020.
Georgia - the trend of the state (like Arizona, clearly trending toward the Dems after 2012) and the groups Trump improved/declined with between 2016, when he won and 2020, when he lost.
Georgia 2016-2020 exit poll differences.
Michigan. Was a blue state since 1992 with the exception of Trump's 10,704 vote win in 2016.
Michigan exit poll details:
Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin.
Wisconsin.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter Profile picture
15 May
The more whiny Trump cries, whines and lies about the election, the more I’ll show research that shows that he lost and exactly why he lost.

Note to Trump supporters asking “why do you keep bringing him up?” Easy answer: he won’t shut his lying pie hole.

This is HOW he lost.
And this is HOW he lost.

He lost a lot of the white voters, college educated voters and independents who supported him in 2016.
In 2016, Donald Trump won Independents in every one of the six states that he flipped from blue to red.

In 2020, Donald Trump lost Independents in every one of the five states that Joe Biden flipped from red to blue.
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
14 May
So here is some expanded Exit Poll comparisons for Arizona between Trump's 2016 win in the state and Trump's 2020 loss in the state.

It's pretty self-explanatory. As is his loss.
And here is that trendline showing the GOP in AZ nosediving after the 2012 election with Exit Poll data added to show how the state went from light red in 2016 to faint blue in 2020.

It's. NOT. Hard.

No ballots were subjected to UV light during the making of these graphics.
One consistent theme from looking at some of the swing state polls: Hispanic voters kept Trump's loss from being much, much worse than it was.
Read 9 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
14 May
The saddest thing about the Surrender To Trump Party is that some of them think now that they acquitted him from his second impeachment and forced Liz Cheney out that he’s done with them. He’ll leave them alone now.

Hah!
You’ve just further proven something that he’s known for five years. He OWNS you. Your next job is to try to overturn the election that is already over. And to run interference for Trump in his multiple criminal liabilities. And, depending on his mood, go pick him up a Big Mac.
You may think that you’re his supporters. But you’re not. You’re his flunkies. He’s Biff Tannen. And you’re a couple hundred George McFlys.

You know and we know and you know that we know that you’re not done with him until he’s done with you.
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
13 May
Trump’s margins among white voters fell 8 points in Arizona and 15 points in Georgia when you compare 2016 and 2020.

In 2016, he won white voters in Arizona 54-40 (+14). In 2020, he won them by only 52-6 (+6).

In 2016, he won white voters in Georgia 75-21 (+54). Now 69-39 (+39)
You know how some sports teams screw up the beginning of their seasons, going 1-6 and have to win 8 of their last 9 games if they want to have a chance of winning the playoffs?

That’s a metaphor for the GOO and the dynamics between it, white voters and voters of color.
Trump did slightly better nationally with black and latino voters than he did in 2016. But the GOP still loses both by a lot. That’s the start of their season.

So now they need not just win the rest of the season with white voters. They need to win an unrealistic % of them.
Read 5 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
13 May
Okay. So now let’s look at the exit polls for Georgia. Another one of the supposedly “stolen” states which Trump lost.

The first thing to consider when thinking about Trump’s losses in Arizona and Georgia is how relatively narrowly he won the states in 2016.
In 2016, Trump won Arizona and Georgia, states that had been red for decades, by a smaller percentage margin than by which he won Ohio and Iowa, states that Obama had just won twice.

Trump in 2016 won:
- AZ by 3.5 points
- GA by 5.1 points
- OH by 8.1 points
- IA by 9.4 points
Like Arizona, Trump’s problems in Georgia did not begin in 2020. Look at the drop off in GOP margin between 2012 and 2016 which came before the drop off between 2016 and 2020.

So what explains this drop? Let’s look at the exit polls, which asked people who they just voted for. Image
Read 17 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
13 May
You can learn a lot by reading exit polls. And in this time of #TheBigLie when Trump and those who believe him and lie for him invent all kinds of falsehoods about our voting infrastructure, exit polls provide an independent source of data, outside of the voting infrastructure.
People are asked "how DID you vote?" And when we look at the results of these polls, it gives us another angle to look at how we got from the results in 2016 to the results in 2020.
So since some weird people are still looking for bamboo in paper ballots in Arizona, let's compare the way people from different groups said they voted right after they voted in 2016 with how people said they voted right after their 2020 vote. In Arizona.
Read 21 tweets

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