So here is some expanded Exit Poll comparisons for Arizona between Trump's 2016 win in the state and Trump's 2020 loss in the state.
It's pretty self-explanatory. As is his loss.
It's pretty self-explanatory. As is his loss.
https://twitter.com/TheValuesVoter/status/1392741908091449345
And here is that trendline showing the GOP in AZ nosediving after the 2012 election with Exit Poll data added to show how the state went from light red in 2016 to faint blue in 2020.
It's. NOT. Hard.
No ballots were subjected to UV light during the making of these graphics.
It's. NOT. Hard.
No ballots were subjected to UV light during the making of these graphics.
One consistent theme from looking at some of the swing state polls: Hispanic voters kept Trump's loss from being much, much worse than it was.
If you look at the data, a lot of things people believe to be true aren't.
Some think Trump lost the election because white replacement tucker carlson yada yada yada. Nope. A big factor in his loss is that a lot of white people turned on him.
Some think Trump lost the election because white replacement tucker carlson yada yada yada. Nope. A big factor in his loss is that a lot of white people turned on him.
College grads, especially white college grads, turned on him. And in some places, his margins also got slimmer with white non-college grads.
Black folks? What about us? Well, it helped that our participation went back up (Trump got elected in 2016, when black VEP was very low).
Black folks? What about us? Well, it helped that our participation went back up (Trump got elected in 2016, when black VEP was very low).
But Trump did better among black voters, slightly so, in 2020 than he did in 2016. So that's not really it.
I saw someone tweet some nonsense about how Trump lost because of "anchor babies," yada yada yada stopwatchingfoxnews. Trump did better with Latinos in 2020 than in 2016.
I saw someone tweet some nonsense about how Trump lost because of "anchor babies," yada yada yada stopwatchingfoxnews. Trump did better with Latinos in 2020 than in 2016.
So, no, that crap isn't true either.
If you have to choose between listening to a pundit and looking at data, look at data and turn the TV off.
If you have to choose between listening to a pundit and looking at data, look at data and turn the TV off.
Among White Men in Georgia:
In 2016, Trump won 80-16 (+64).
In 2020, Trump won 72-27 (+45).
A 19 point drop.
Among White Women in Georgia:
In 2016, Trump won 70-26 (+44).
In 2020, Trump won 67-32 (+35).
A 9 point drop.
In 2016, Trump won 80-16 (+64).
In 2020, Trump won 72-27 (+45).
A 19 point drop.
Among White Women in Georgia:
In 2016, Trump won 70-26 (+44).
In 2020, Trump won 67-32 (+35).
A 9 point drop.
Among Black Men in Georgia:
In 2016, Trump lost 15-83 (-68).
In 2020, Trump lost 16-83 (-67).
A 1 point gain
Among Black Women in Georgia:
In 2016, Trump lost 5-94 (-89).
In 2020, Trump lost 7-92 (-85).
A 4 point gain
In 2016, Trump lost 15-83 (-68).
In 2020, Trump lost 16-83 (-67).
A 1 point gain
Among Black Women in Georgia:
In 2016, Trump lost 5-94 (-89).
In 2020, Trump lost 7-92 (-85).
A 4 point gain
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