Tweet

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @AllenAu11

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

17 May

Amid all the gloom & doom about #BTC, let's do some in depth TA!

4-year cycle broken? V-shaped rebound? When? Seen correction low?

TLDR:

1 BTC price is tracking past cycles'
2 Price dump expected today
3 There could be a lengthening of this cycle
4 Peak price: $260K-$360K

1/ #BTC's recent price action is puzzling as it doesn't seem to follow the previous cycles'.

I was perplexed until I zoomed out & looked closely at the monthly BLX log chart to find my bearings.

BTC's price action is tracking its previous cycles'! BTC's 4-year cycle is intact.

@HalvingTracker

2a/ I'm tracking the @HalvingTracker charts, but I've been looking at the wrong portions of the charts of previous cycles (🔵).

Using the monthly BLX log chart, I found out where #BTC is at (🔴) and where it is supposed to be in previous cycles and it all makes sense!

Read 10 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

1 May

#Bitcoin returned -1.98% in 4/21. Would #BTC have a negative return month in 5/21?

TLDR: No. Traditionally, May is a decent month for #BTC with monthly returns averaging 18%.

Target prices: $67K-$80K

Time to reach targets: 5/5-5/31

Low: $50K-$55K

1a/ Let's recap. #BTC didn't had a good month in 4/21 as expected, but it hit the lowest price target of $64K. After that, it corrected 27% to $47K before rebounding to $58K on 4/30.

I thought the 2nd dip (blue) corresponded to those of the last 2 cycles, but that wasn't it.

@irandall13

1b/ CTM now has its own ATH Tracker. Big shout out to @irandall13! We could track the projected price action of #BTC with more precision!

Per the ATH Tracker, #BTC could have a major run up in 5/21.

Read 16 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

13 Dec 20

Confused by the myriad of price predictions for #Bitcoin in 2021. There are a few pricing models for $BTC and they could be grouped as follows:

1. Halving cycle
2. On-chain metrics
3. Market cap
4. Use case
5. Stock-to-flow
6. Magic wand

Which one to lean into? Read on.

@jclcapital

1a/ These use technical analysis of the price action of #Bitcoin in previous halving cycles to forecast the price of $BTC, such as Citibank’s. However, the most accurate one to date is Jordan Lindsey’s @jclcapital as detailed in his $BTC video playlist.

1b/ Jordan’s model gives a 2021 price target of $140K-$160K for #Bitcoin. He predicts a shortening of the current $BTC bull phase and a cycle top in 9/2021. He uses a dynamic tracker to seek out the $BTC peak. Follow the daily livestreams on his Youtube channel to get updates.

Read 10 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

8 Dec 20

@michael_saylor

@michael_saylor is very astute as he just took advantage of the favorable market conditions of #Bitcoin and the low interest rate environment to have $MSTR issue 5-year convertible senior notes of up to $460M to buy more $BTC. A great win for $MSTR:

microstrategy.com/en/company/com…

1/ $MSTR has operating cash flow of $50M/year. The note is ~9x cash flow, but the interest rate should be 3% max so it has ample cash to service the interest payments. It can do interest rate arbitrage by depositing the #Bitcoin into companies like BlockFi.

2/ $MSTR is turned into a $BTC play like the Grayscale Investments’ $GBTC, but even better as it is more like a #Bitcoin #ETF with a tech business but no fees. $MSTR doesn't suffer the premium issue of $GBTC so investors can buy it close to the spot $BTC price. Great attraction!

Read 6 tweets

Allen Au 🧢

@AllenAu11

6 Dec 20

1/ Another misunderstood item of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) is its premium, which can be considered simply as the amount one is willing to pay to not custody their own private keys and still get exposure to #Bitcoin. However, it is more than that.

2/ When you buy $GBTC, you are not buying #Bitcoin, but only exposure to the crypto king. $GBTC is a trust product solely invested in $BTC offered by Grayscale Investments in the form of shares that are traded publicly in the secondary market, OTCQX Best marketplace, in the US.

3/ $GBTC is popular among institutional investors because it allows them to expose to #Bitcoin and bypass uncertainty related to regulation, compliance, and taxation. For retail investors, it is the only investment vehicle available through tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k).

Read 11 tweets

Share this page!

Allen Au 🧢

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @AllenAu11

Allen Au 🧢

Allen Au 🧢

Allen Au 🧢

Allen Au 🧢

Allen Au 🧢

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?