Amid all the gloom & doom about #BTC, let's do some in depth TA!

4-year cycle broken? V-shaped rebound? When? Seen correction low?


1 BTC price is tracking past cycles'
2 Price dump expected today
3 There could be a lengthening of this cycle
4 Peak price: $260K-$360K
1/ #BTC's recent price action is puzzling as it doesn't seem to follow the previous cycles'.

I was perplexed until I zoomed out & looked closely at the monthly BLX log chart to find my bearings.

BTC's price action is tracking its previous cycles'! BTC's 4-year cycle is intact. Image
2a/ I'm tracking the @HalvingTracker charts, but I've been looking at the wrong portions of the charts of previous cycles (🔵).

Using the monthly BLX log chart, I found out where #BTC is at (🔴) and where it is supposed to be in previous cycles and it all makes sense! Image
2b/ #BTC is tracking the monthly price action of the 2013 bull phase closely.

However, in terms of price action from the no. of days after the halving, #BTC is trading similar to that on 372 days after the halving in 2017, while it's currently at 371 days after the halving. Image
2/c Thus, in terms of price action in this cycle, #BTC is off by only 1 day from that in 2017!

A big dump is expected to happen today exactly as it has played out regardless of Elon's tweet. Image
2d/ Could #BTC's price go lower from here?

If it behaves like that in the 2017 cycle, the dump is over & price will begin its V-shaped rebound.

If it follows the 2013 bull phase, #BTC will have a lower low next month, but rebound to close out with a monthly green candle.
3/ From the same period today in the last 2 cycles, it took #BTC 5 months to reach its respective peaks in those cycles.

If everything plays out as expected, that will put #BTC's current cycle peak in October 2021 rather than September 2021.

👀 Image
4a/ What is the projected peak #BTC price in this cycle?

Using Fib Extensions, #BTC topped put between 3.618 Fib and 4.618 Fib in the last 2 cycles. If this plays out in this cycle, #BTC's top price is ~$260K. Image
4b/ For reference, connecting the 2 previous #BTC's cycle peaks with a trend line, BTC peak price is determined to be:

9/21 Peak: $260K
10/21 Peak: $280K
4c/ Assuming the trend angle for each bull phase move is 3° less in each succeeding cycle, the #BTC peak price is determined to be:

9/21 Peak: $260K
10/21 Peak: $360K

If the trend angle is an average between the last 2 cycles', #BTC's peak price is much higher!

Will update. Image

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More from @AllenAu11

14 May
𝗖𝗧𝗠 #𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗯𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱: 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟭𝟵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭

#𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀

TLDR: All indicators show that #BTC is nowhere near its peak in the current cycle.

𝟭. 𝗠𝗩𝗥𝗩-𝗭 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲 (>𝟳.𝟱): 𝗡𝗼

5/13/21 Value: 3.08 Image
𝟮. 𝟭-𝗬𝗿+ 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 (~𝟰𝟳%): 𝗡𝗼

5/13/21 Value: 55% Image
Read 8 tweets
1 May
#Bitcoin returned -1.98% in 4/21. Would #BTC have a negative return month in 5/21?

TLDR: No. Traditionally, May is a decent month for #BTC with monthly returns averaging 18%.

Target prices: $67K-$80K

Time to reach targets: 5/5-5/31

Low: $50K-$55K
1a/ Let's recap. #BTC didn't had a good month in 4/21 as expected, but it hit the lowest price target of $64K. After that, it corrected 27% to $47K before rebounding to $58K on 4/30.

I thought the 2nd dip (blue) corresponded to those of the last 2 cycles, but that wasn't it.
1b/ CTM now has its own ATH Tracker. Big shout out to @irandall13! We could track the projected price action of #BTC with more precision!

Per the ATH Tracker, #BTC could have a major run up in 5/21.
Read 16 tweets
13 Dec 20
Confused by the myriad of price predictions for #Bitcoin in 2021. There are a few pricing models for $BTC and they could be grouped as follows:

1. Halving cycle
2. On-chain metrics
3. Market cap
4. Use case
5. Stock-to-flow
6. Magic wand

Which one to lean into? Read on.
1a/ These use technical analysis of the price action of #Bitcoin in previous halving cycles to forecast the price of $BTC, such as Citibank’s. However, the most accurate one to date is Jordan Lindsey’s @jclcapital as detailed in his $BTC video playlist.

1b/ Jordan’s model gives a 2021 price target of $140K-$160K for #Bitcoin. He predicts a shortening of the current $BTC bull phase and a cycle top in 9/2021. He uses a dynamic tracker to seek out the $BTC peak. Follow the daily livestreams on his Youtube channel to get updates.
Read 10 tweets
8 Dec 20
@michael_saylor is very astute as he just took advantage of the favorable market conditions of #Bitcoin and the low interest rate environment to have $MSTR issue 5-year convertible senior notes of up to $460M to buy more $BTC. A great win for $MSTR:…
1/ $MSTR has operating cash flow of $50M/year. The note is ~9x cash flow, but the interest rate should be 3% max so it has ample cash to service the interest payments. It can do interest rate arbitrage by depositing the #Bitcoin into companies like BlockFi.
2/ $MSTR is turned into a $BTC play like the Grayscale Investments’ $GBTC, but even better as it is more like a #Bitcoin #ETF with a tech business but no fees. $MSTR doesn't suffer the premium issue of $GBTC so investors can buy it close to the spot $BTC price. Great attraction!
Read 6 tweets
6 Dec 20
1/ Another misunderstood item of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) is its premium, which can be considered simply as the amount one is willing to pay to not custody their own private keys and still get exposure to #Bitcoin. However, it is more than that. Image
2/ When you buy $GBTC, you are not buying #Bitcoin, but only exposure to the crypto king. $GBTC is a trust product solely invested in $BTC offered by Grayscale Investments in the form of shares that are traded publicly in the secondary market, OTCQX Best marketplace, in the US.
3/ $GBTC is popular among institutional investors because it allows them to expose to #Bitcoin and bypass uncertainty related to regulation, compliance, and taxation. For retail investors, it is the only investment vehicle available through tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k).
Read 11 tweets

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