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Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
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14 May, 5 tweets, 2 min read
as Mark Twain and Satchell Paige said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.“ Following what we were told was "the science" on droplets was a bad mistake. Precautions for droplets didn't work against aerosols.
here is fascinating story of how one scientist disentangled the role of aerosols in spread of COVID.
wired.com/story/the-teen…
there's an important moral to the distinction between aerosols and droplets in how to effectively forestall spread. Spending money on improved ventilation systems in a Hong Kong university as opposed to spending same amount of money on mass testing.
readers will recognize that aerosol spread of COVID has been a longstanding interest of both myself and @KoenSwinkels.

twitter.com/search?lang=en…
Ontario Science Table - who've never seen an exponential doomcast that they didn't endorse - is now slagging govt for insufficient concern over aerosols, but that insufficient concern characterized COVID advisory scientists themselves until a few minutes ago.

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More from @ClimateAudit

Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
11 May
three weeks ago, when Ontario Science Table was in full volume doomcasting stratospheric exponential COVID, I surmised that a Gompertz top was forming and that there were grounds for optimism, becoming increasingly optimistic as doomsters became gloomier
my surmise that mid-April was Gompertz top seems to have been prescient. Ontario cases are now less than 50% of top of Gompertz curve, declining rapidly against all expectations of Ontario Science Table. Hospitalizations following with lag.
3/ in mid-Apr, Ontario govt @fordnation mostly resisted demands of public sector privileged academics for more draconian lockdowns and/or additional burdens on the local businesses upon whom entire economic burden of lockdown has been imposed, though they
Read 7 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
11 May
imagine a citizenry which places a "high premium on data analysis and empiricism". Or which believes that "science is a process, and not an institution". Or which expects data used by policy-makers to be analysable.

Such citizens have long been hated by climate "community",
2/ the appropriate response of institutions should be to make the data available, improve their analytic and statistical skills, acknowledge errors graciously.

More or less the opposite strategy to the climate "community".
3/ we've also learned over past few years that institutions expect citizens to set aside their expectations of a "high premium on data analysis and empiricism" when it comes to diktats ("assessments") by intelligence community.
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
8 May
@TuckerCarlson had segment on JiaQi Bao's proposal that Hunter Biden appropriate the cash in Hudson West III after its parent company CEFC became insolvent, but closed by saying that they didnt know the outcome. Outcome was known before election.
2/ a Nov 3 article in American Conservative theamericanconservative.com/articles/exclu… pointed out that all the money in Hudson West III was embezzled by Hunter and Uncle Jim.
3/ the article even drew attention to JiaQi Bao's proposal to Hunter to appropriate the money (thp unfortunately her name and colorful association with Hunter wasn't discussd.)
Read 4 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
4 May
on Apr 16, as Science Table proclaimed doom, Ontario govt adopted annoying but irrelevant outdoor rules. To universal condemnation by Ontario media and COVID establishment for being inadequate and irrelevant. @fordnanation was right not to over-react to SciTable doomcasting.
2/ as on previous occasions, Ontario Science Table's projection was wildly wrong. In only 2 weeks, actuals are at 50% of levels predicted under the draconian measures not adopted and 25% of predictions under "weak" (not exactly) measures that @fordnation continued.
3/ although cases are a fraction of Science Table predictions, hospitalizations and ICU remain high (in Ontario terms). While SciTable like to point to some prior forecasts of high ICU levels, such forecasts were tied to forecasts with MUCH higher case numbers than experienced
Read 6 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
29 Apr
on Jan 12, Ontario Science Table projected up to 41,000 COVID cases by Feb 14, but only 1500 ICU beds needed. In recent third wave, we're up to almost 900 ICU beds with less than 10% of the cases.
2/ despite pompous Sci Table self-advertisement, their projections, up until the last few minutes, gave no hint of ICU to case ratio that we're presently experiencing.
3/ here's a way of looking at forecasts that intrigues me. There was almost linear relationship between Jan 12, 2021 projections of cases and ICU on any given date - Feb 14 values shown as points below and joined. Black +s show actuals.
Read 5 tweets
Stephen McIntyre Profile picture
27 Apr
Ontario COVID academics are in full throttle partisanship against Ontario govt for being insufficiently draconian in placing burdens and worse lockdowns on struggling private sector (while public sector privilege paychecks uninterrupted) But looks like Gompertz top on third wave Image
I'm pretty optimistic about May cases.

Actual cases have fallen sharply for a few days after a 2-week plateau - very Gompertz - and are already less than 50% of Science Table Apr 16 predictions, despite govt not caving to most extremist academics - to their fury. Image
Also, last year, cases, deaths and hospitalizations all fell sharply in May and June in Ontario as people get more fresh air and sunshine. Hopefully this year as well.
Read 9 tweets

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