The specific message is obviously that based on this study, sac/val has no role over ACE/ARB in post-MI patients with heart failure and LV dysfunction.
We cannot ignore costs of care. And low BP was worse in the ARNI group.
The larger message--there is nearly always a larger message--is that we may have over-estimated this drug class.
It missed significance now in 2 of 3 outcome trials.
In PARAGON-HF of HFpEF and now PARADISE-MI.
Re PARADIGM, we know large effect sizes often don't replicate
Another larger message is that of #medicalconservativism and that perhaps we ought to have 2 confirmatory trials before widespread acceptance and regulatory approval.
What if PARADIGM-HF is redone with equal dose valsartan as the comparator instead of enalapril?
Let me know what you think about my arguments on @theheartorg piece
This principles in this podcast are so darn important for critical appraisal
@youyanggu lack of prior infectious disease knowledge is a feature not a bug.
It allows a dispassionate interpretation of evidence.
Say it w me: **content expertise is over-rated!**
2/
I’m all about Bayes, but the novel-ness of COVID-19, and the fact that it’s a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, should reduce (or eliminate) any prior beliefs.
I dare say the frequentist-like approach may have been better for Covid.
4/
NEJM published 2 RCTs of #AFib ablation vs AF drugs.
The rub was that the ablation was done EARLY in the course.
Practice had been to try drugs first then do ablation.
EARLY AF and STOP AF studied the procedure early. #AHA20 Thread and my column >>
Both trials used the Medtronic cryoballoon system.
Medtronic participated in funding both trials.
STOP AF was 100% an industry trial. See pic.
Early AF had funding from many other sources
Background -- numerous trials have shown that AF ablation using different techniques (freezing or burning) can reduce AF episodes relative to meds.
In CABANA -- the largest outcome trial, AF ablation reduced AF but had no sig effect on clinical outcomes like stroke or death.
Giving talks in which you don't have a slide deck already made is illuminating. Look what I found out about publication bias>
It was "discovered" in 1979 by Rosenthal content.apa.org/record/1979-27…
How did he do this?
Thread ...
He used a variant of ...sit down for this...the Fragility Index, which we reported on in cardiology ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CI…
The criticism was fierce. But I liked it. @ShahzebKhanMD
Here's Rosenthal's explanation
I am no stats person but this looks a lot like a fragility concept applied to all studies.
Thread: To me, the most stunning report from #ESCCongress thus far: RATE-AF trial
Older pts w/ permanent AF + shortness of breath. (there are lots of these pts).
Rate control is crucial
In 2020, most receive beta-blockers.
But BB can cause dyspnea.
What about dig?
Gulp! 1/
Rate-AF randomized these pts to bb vs digoxin. Here is the protocol paper: bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjope…
Crucially they looked at quality of life. That's a really important outcome.
The results shocked me. Look at heart rates. Dig isn't supposed to be this good.
Need help from trial methods people. I ran across this amazing paper by @phlegmfighter et al looking at consequences of recommendations in the design and interpretation of Non-inferiority trials. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28875400/
THEY SUGGEST SYSTEMIC BIASES.
Thread
If you put the new treatment on the left side of the interpretative diagram, there are four ways to make Non-inferiority. Scenarios 1-4. but....
They show that if the convention were to put the active control on the left side of the diagram, make the new treatment the control, you would bias strongly toward the control (thus making NI more difficult to reach). No change in data, just the mirror image here: