When sacubitril/valsartan crushed it in 2014 in PARADIGM-HF for HFrEF, there were a few voices of criticism.

At #ACC21 the PARADISE-MI of entresto vs ramipril in post-MI patients w heart failure failed to show significance.

My summary
medscape.com/viewarticle/95…

Thread/
The specific message is obviously that based on this study, sac/val has no role over ACE/ARB in post-MI patients with heart failure and LV dysfunction.

We cannot ignore costs of care. And low BP was worse in the ARNI group.
The larger message--there is nearly always a larger message--is that we may have over-estimated this drug class.

It missed significance now in 2 of 3 outcome trials.
In PARAGON-HF of HFpEF and now PARADISE-MI.

Re PARADIGM, we know large effect sizes often don't replicate
Another larger message is that of #medicalconservativism and that perhaps we ought to have 2 confirmatory trials before widespread acceptance and regulatory approval.

What if PARADIGM-HF is redone with equal dose valsartan as the comparator instead of enalapril?
Let me know what you think about my arguments on @theheartorg piece

Thanks to @kaulcsmc and @VPrasadMDMPH who are both cited in the piece.

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More from @drjohnm

13 Mar
Pure gold in this convo on #covid19

Why has @youyanggu been so accurate modeling?

Go to 39-minute mark and replay his words 100x

“When the data do not fit what I expected, I change my beliefs”

If only this was allowed in COVID science!

Brief thread 👇
This principles in this podcast are so darn important for critical appraisal

@youyanggu lack of prior infectious disease knowledge is a feature not a bug.

It allows a dispassionate interpretation of evidence.

Say it w me: **content expertise is over-rated!**

2/
I’m all about Bayes, but the novel-ness of COVID-19, and the fact that it’s a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, should reduce (or eliminate) any prior beliefs.

I dare say the frequentist-like approach may have been better for Covid.

4/
Read 5 tweets
12 Mar
Excited to share our recently published point-counterpoint paper on halting implantation of the @bostonsci subcutaneous-ICD

The paper is now open access.

A brief thread
Background:
I have used the S-ICD. It has *potential* advantages over the traditional trans-venous ICD system

But it is the newcomer. A #MedicalConservative believes proponents of new stuff must show more than *potential* benefits over the tried and true.
Recent Issues w the S-ICD:

In the first part of the commentary @bogdienache and I focus our argument around:

-Two Class 1 FDA recalls of the S-ICD
-Serious concerns over the PRAETORIAN trial-- the only trial RCT comparing transvenous ICD (standard) to S-ICD
Read 11 tweets
18 Nov 20
NEJM published 2 RCTs of #AFib ablation vs AF drugs.
The rub was that the ablation was done EARLY in the course.
Practice had been to try drugs first then do ablation.
EARLY AF and STOP AF studied the procedure early.
#AHA20 Thread and my column >>
Both trials used the Medtronic cryoballoon system.
Medtronic participated in funding both trials.
STOP AF was 100% an industry trial. See pic.
Early AF had funding from many other sources
Background -- numerous trials have shown that AF ablation using different techniques (freezing or burning) can reduce AF episodes relative to meds.
In CABANA -- the largest outcome trial, AF ablation reduced AF but had no sig effect on clinical outcomes like stroke or death.
Read 10 tweets
7 Sep 20
Giving talks in which you don't have a slide deck already made is illuminating. Look what I found out about publication bias>
It was "discovered" in 1979 by Rosenthal content.apa.org/record/1979-27…
How did he do this?
Thread ...
He used a variant of ...sit down for this...the Fragility Index, which we reported on in cardiology
ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CI…
The criticism was fierce. But I liked it. @ShahzebKhanMD
Here's Rosenthal's explanation

I am no stats person but this looks a lot like a fragility concept applied to all studies.
Read 7 tweets
29 Aug 20
Thread: To me, the most stunning report from #ESCCongress thus far: RATE-AF trial
Older pts w/ permanent AF + shortness of breath. (there are lots of these pts).
Rate control is crucial
In 2020, most receive beta-blockers.
But BB can cause dyspnea.
What about dig?
Gulp! 1/
Rate-AF randomized these pts to bb vs digoxin. Here is the protocol paper: bmjopen.bmj.com/content/bmjope…
Crucially they looked at quality of life. That's a really important outcome.
The results shocked me. Look at heart rates. Dig isn't supposed to be this good.
Read 10 tweets
29 Jun 20
Need help from trial methods people. I ran across this amazing paper by @phlegmfighter et al looking at consequences of recommendations in the design and interpretation of Non-inferiority trials. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28875400/
THEY SUGGEST SYSTEMIC BIASES.
Thread Image
If you put the new treatment on the left side of the interpretative diagram, there are four ways to make Non-inferiority. Scenarios 1-4. but.... Image
They show that if the convention were to put the active control on the left side of the diagram, make the new treatment the control, you would bias strongly toward the control (thus making NI more difficult to reach). No change in data, just the mirror image here: Image
Read 6 tweets

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