Thread by @DavidLat

1/ THREAD. Big news out of #SCOTUS this morning. This abortion case, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, could be one of the biggest (and most divisive) rulings in years.

https://twitter.com/scotusblog/status/1394284425224114176

2/ I don’t expect Roe or Casey to be overruled outright. Chief Justice Roberts has already shown a concern for precedent in the area of abortion (see his vote in June Medical). #SCOTUS #appellatetwitter

3/ And I don’t think Justice Kavanaugh, also mindful of precedent, wants to be as vilified as the fifth vote for outright overruling Roe would be (as I discussed with @mckaycoppins of @TheAtlantic for his recent profile of Kavanaugh).

bit.ly/3w5PPNM

4/ Supreme Court terms tend to alternate between sleepy and blockbuster. Last Term was blockbuster (all the Trump cases), this Term is sleepy, and next Term will be blockbuster (Dobbs, the Second Amendment case, etc.). #SCOTUS #appellatetwitter

5/ Per @NinaTotenberg, "The test case is from Mississippi, which bans most abortions after 15 weeks, significantly before fetal viability. The lower courts blocked enforcement of the law, finding it in conflict with Roe." #SCOTUS

https://twitter.com/NinaTotenberg/status/1394298720167075853

6/ A point I should clarify (raised by @DavidMuraskin): I'm speaking here only about formal overruling (which is why I refer to "outright" overruling earlier in the thread).

#SCOTUS #appellatetwitter

7/ It's rare for #SCOTUS to formally overrule a precedent. But it does happen on occasion. For a handy list of prominent examples, see the penultimate paragraph of this recent dissent from denial of cert by Justice Thomas.

bit.ly/2Rg0irn

8/ Even if #SCOTUS doesn't formally overrule Roe or Casey, it could still dramatically shift its abortion jurisprudence in this upcoming case, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health -- which is why I began this thread by noting this case could be very, very big.