A few observations on today's reports that Belarus effectively hijacked a civilian plan flying over its territory to kidnap one of its passengers. (thread)
Under Council Common Position 2001/931/CFSP, hijacking of a plane ("seizure of aircraft") and "kidnapping" may qualify as "terrorist acts". /2
The problem is that - under the Common Position - it seems that 'terrorists acts' are those, the purpose of which is to attack "a country" or "an international organization". /3
An additional complication is that the subject of EU sanctions under Common Position can be only "persons", "groups" and "entities" involved in terrorist acts. This does not seem to include "foreign governments". /4
So if the EU wanted to apply Common Position 2001/931/CFSP to the situation with Ryanair flight, a few hurdles would have to be overcome. /5
First, there is a question of whether forcing an airplane to land by invoking a fake bomb threat and using fighter jets accounts for "seizure of an aircraft". One could argue that once the airplane was forced to land in Minsk, it was "seized" at the airport. /6
Second, there is question of which "country" or "international organization" this terrorist act was committed against.

Three candidates:
- Belarus (country),
- source and destination countries of the flight (Lithuania or Greece),
- organization Pratasievič participated in. /7
On its face, there is nothing in Common Position that would prevent interpretation that a government can commit a "terrorist act" against its own country. However, that is a difficult legal construct. It would be easier to go with Lithuania and/or Greece. /8
Third, the main problem is that Common Position 2001/931 doesnt allow sanctioning of entire governments (only individuals, groups, entities). This is the main difficulty with using it against the entire Belarus government, though perhaps some work-around can be found. /9
To conclude, 3 changes to ensure Common Position 2001/931 can be used effectively:
- "terrorist acts" can be committed by govts vs their own nation & opposition;
- "seizure of airplane" includes forcing it to land by any means;
- govts/state actors can be subject to sanctions/END
From latest reports it transpires that the Ryanair plane belonged to a Polish-registered company, so equally, the act can be said to be directed against Poland.
One should also add that we have two other sanctions-related acts that could apply.

One is the Magnitsky sanctions decisions (Council Decision 2020/1990) and other is the general Belarus decision (Council Decision 2012/642).
As for the Magnitsky sanctions (Council Decision 2020/1990), it envisions imposing sanctions on "State actors". 👇 Don't want to get too legal, but sanctioning a "State actor" is probably not the same as sanctioning the entire government. But closer, at least.
However, Magnitsky sanctions do not list "kidnapping" nor "hijacking"/"seizure" of an airplane as an act qualifying as "serious human rights violations and abuses" subject to sanctions. Magnitsky sanctions seek to attack long-standing and mass repressions, not individual acts.
As for general Belarus sanctions, they have a series of specific measures that don't need individual justification, but in relation to asset freeze, they are targeted against individual and entities and bodies. No clear authorization for use against the entire Belarus government
At any rate, Belarus President and his entourage are already listed individually.
All in all, what we need at EU level is the ability to blacklist the entire government and designate it a "state-sponsor of terrorism", analogous to what the US is doing.

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More from @TomWlost

25 May
I am hearing a lot of doubts whether EU and the West have any economic pressure over Belarus.

Here are some quick & obvious targets for trade sanctions. (thread)
By hitting:
(1) oil & fuels
(2) iron, steel, metallurgy
(3) chemicals & fertilizers
the West would be hitting about a third of BLR trade. /2 Image
First, fuel, oil & minerals. Almost 7 bln USD in exports look sanctionable. Key player is Ukraine, which may not be able to join due to Kyiv's reliance on some energy-related imports from BLR. But below some examples. /3
Read 17 tweets
24 May
Not an entirely bad result (yet) from the European Council on Belarus, here is why. (thread)
As a preliminary matter, remember European Council doesnt impose sanctions. It only sets direction EU will take. Preparation of laws must be done in conformity with EU treaties. This involves (in sanctions) the European Commission, External Action Service and the Council. /2
So first, conclusions call for "additional listings of persons and entities ... on the basis of the relevant sanctions framework". /3
Read 26 tweets
23 May
As Belarus sanctions will be high on everyone radar tomorrow and the weeks to come, perhaps it would be helpful to recall where we are today. (thread)
The principal EU act on Belarus sanctions is Council Decision 2012/642, which lays out the scheme of EU sanctions on Belarus. These sanctions had their ups and downs, but after recent presidential elections are a hot topic again and given today's events may become red hot. /1
As Council Decision provides for both EU-level measures and Member State measures, it is implemented at both EU and national level. At the EU level, it is implemented by Council Regulation 765/2006. Some of Annexes w/ listed persons are amended by Council Implementing Regs. /2
Read 23 tweets
2 Jun 20
Thank you for writing about this, @anders_aslund. What is happening in Ukraine with fertilizers is an outrage and we call on @Trade_EU @PhilHoganEU @WeyandSabine to intervene at the highest levels as soon as possible while window of opportunity to impact the proceeding exists!
First point, the dominant local producer of fertilizers - Ostchem Group owned by Firtash - is a MONOPOLIST. This has been unequivocally established by Ukrainian AntiMonopoly Committee that decided that in 2017, Ostchem was a monopolist on the Ukrainian fertilizer market. /1
The key element of that decision finding Ostchem a monopolist was an event from 2017, when Ostchem collected pre-payments from Ukrainian farmers for future deliveries, yet then STOPPED PRODUCTION FOR 4 MONTHS. /2
Read 19 tweets
24 Sep 19
@SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU Sam - a couple of quick comments. I'll return to this later, but for now. First, very good, timely and necessary piece ! Congratulations!
@SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU Second, abt relocation of economic activity due to carbon leakage. This doesnt have to be actual moving of factories, or closing one factory in EU, opening another abroad. It's enough that EU producers of same good are less competitive than foreign producers of same good.
@SamuelMarcLowe @CER_EU If EU steel producers lose market share to steel imports, or EU fertilizer producers lose market share to fertilizer imports - that's also carbon leakage, because as a result of ETS, more carbon is emitted abroad, where there are no incentives to limit them.
Read 28 tweets
10 Sep 19
@KeirGiles 1/ I am going to go out on a limb and raise one possibility rarely discussed. Marcon is intelligent, we cannot deny him that. He has also been rather tough on Russia. So I think we need to consider that his plan may be more elaborate than just a dumb "reset".
@KeirGiles 2/ One option is opportunistic attempt to drum up support for FR interests in Russia or abroad. He knows reset won't work, but thinks he can score points (commercial or others) by saying nice things on Russia. Some contracts for French companies? Maybe minor concession elsewhere?
@KeirGiles 3/ so this option would entail Macron knowing very well nothing good will come out of Russia on major issues (Ukraine, Syria, etc), but hoping he can get some (smaller) deliverables for France from RU. That would be a good trade for him.
Read 6 tweets

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