Thread by @TomWlost

Not an entirely bad result (yet) from the European Council on Belarus, here is why. (thread)

https://twitter.com/BarendLeyts/status/1396916367031476224

As a preliminary matter, remember European Council doesnt impose sanctions. It only sets direction EU will take. Preparation of laws must be done in conformity with EU treaties. This involves (in sanctions) the European Commission, External Action Service and the Council. /2

So first, conclusions call for "additional listings of persons and entities ... on the basis of the relevant sanctions framework". /3

In pure English, this means adding people and companies under existing programs (no new sanctions programs). /4

Most likely this means general BLR sanctions regulations (Council Decision 2012/642 and Council Regulation 765/2006). /5

If you want to know what this means in detail, you can find it here. 👇/6

https://twitter.com/TomWlost/status/1396573335346163713?s=20

Importantly, this legislation allows listing of:
- persons, bodies & entities responsible for serious violations of human rights or repression of civil society and democratic opposition, or whose activities undermine democracy or rule of law in Belarus, /7

- persons, bodies & entities "associated with them" or "controlled by them", /8

- persons, entities and bodies "benefiting from" or "supporting" Lukashenka regime, or
- persons, entities and bodies "owned by" or "controlled by" them. /9

However, in the past, EU has focused mostly on members of the regime and security apparatus.

EU had sanctioned only two businessmen for "benefitting from" Lukashenka regime.

Only seven entities are listed (including for benefitting from the regime). /10

As most of the regime (including Lukashenka) is already subject to sanctions, we can HOPE the next listings will be of businessmen and companies. At least this is how I would like to read this phrase. /11

Under EU Magnitsky regime, another "relevant sanctions framework", EU could list "State actors" for "serious rights violations and abuses", which include arbitrary arrests or detentions, violations and abuses of freedom of assembly, association, opinion and expression./12

This is important, because EU hasn't yet listed any Belarusians under its Magnitsky sanctions legislation, even though clearly human rights are routinely violated there, in particular following the Presidential elections in 2020. /13

The only current subjects listed by EU Magnitsky sanctions are Russian, Chechen, North Korean, Chinese, Libyan and South Sudanese. /14

However, Magnitsky sanctions allow for something that regular Belarus sanctions do not: subjecting "State actors" to sanctions (i.e., asset freeze). The State actor would have to be linked of course to the human rights violations. /15

So, for example, it may still be difficult, not impossible, to sanction under Magnitsky BLR air traffic control, or Ministry of Defence, i.e., govt entities involved in forced landing of Ryanair passenger plane (i.e., persuasive link to human rights violations must be made). /16

The 3rd existing "relevant sanctions framework" under which additional listing may be done is Common Position 2001/931/CFSP on terrorism, but there some legal hurdles would have to be overcome. Given the other two simpler options, unlikely the Council will go down this path. /17

You can read about the legal/technical problems with applying Common Position 2001/931 on terrorism to the Ryanair situation here. 👇 /18

https://twitter.com/TomWlost/status/1396500162516762637?s=20

But what gives me some comfort is the second statement on sanctions.

European Council calls on the Council to "adopt further targeted economic sanctions" /19

In light of the separate "additional listings ... under relevant sanctions framework" provision in the Council Conclusions, this can only mean that EU will prepare ENTIRELY NEW ECONOMIC SANCTIONS on Belarus. /20

Who do I know EU will not fold and adopt some meaningless new measures? Quite frankly, I don't. But this is all we could have expected from the European Council, if we want new hard sanctions on Belarus. /21

Remember, naming specific measures requires a lot of preparatory work: analyzing trade flows, value chains, investment patterns. EU was caught off-guard by Ryanair kidnapping, so had no time to prepare anything more meaningful in time for the European Council. /22

How* do I know ...

Third, we also have the best we could have for addressing the unsafe nature of Belarus airspace. EUCO calls on airlines to avoid it (not sure whether Council can "ban" EU airlines from flying there - would welcome any expert chipping in on this!), and .. /23

EUCO instructs the Council to ban Belarus airlines from flying to the EU - so sanctions on Belavia are also moving. /24

Of course I wish the EUCO stated more, mainly talk about trade and financial sanctions on Belarus state-owned enterprises. But this may still happen under "targeted economic sanctions".

To be continued in a few days once more details are clear. /END