Did COVID-19 lockdowns cause opioid deaths to surge? The answer is complicated, writes researcher Alton Lu in @ThinkGlobalHlth.

Read here ⤵️thinkglobalhealth.org/article/opioid…
Fortunately, many countries were spared and some may even see decreases, according to early findings. But in the United States and Canada, fentanyl and lockdowns were a deadly combination. Image
Experts had warned for years that fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid, would lead to skyrocketing opioid deaths. In many states, the upward trend in opioid deaths began well before the virus landed in the United States. 📈🇺🇸 Image
A combination of factors likely contributed to the increase in US opioid deaths during the pandemic: increasing fentanyl availability, the contamination of other drugs with fentanyl, and pandemic measures.
🇨🇦In Canada, we see a similar story to the US: in provinces where overdose deaths spiked seemingly as a result of the pandemic, fentanyl use was increasing.

Read more here 📰➡️pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31962283/ Image
The picture is very different in Europe. While final data is not yet available, early hospital data show a decrease or flat trend in drug-related emergency admissions in some countries.📉
Supply chain issues made it harder for people in Europe to access their usual illegal drug supplies. At the same time, many European governments loosened restrictions on treatment, including allowing people to take treatment doses home with them.
In many other regions, lack of data make it difficult to ascertain the true impact of the pandemic on opioid overdoses or any other substances, particularly in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East.

Read more 📰⤵️sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Fentanyl is here to stay, and countries like the United States and Canada need to address the issue by implementing bolder policies, such as safe drug consumption sites or drug content testing. At the very least, funding for improved data infrastructure around drugs is key.
The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the dangers of indecision & indecisiveness when public health decisions are required. The troubling data on opioid deaths from Canada & the US should push policymakers globally to act quickly to prevent the spread of fentanyl use to save lives.

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More from @IHME_UW

27 May
📣✨ 3 global studies on #smoking published today in @TheLancet & @TheLancetPH using data from 3,625 surveys #GBDstudy.

🚬 Latest data finds nearly 8 million deaths from smoking in 2019 & 90% of new smokers addicted by age 25.

📄➡️thelancet.com/journals/lance… Image
🚭📊 The global numbers as of 2019:

▪️ Number of smokers increased to 1.1 billion
▪️ Caused 7.7 million deaths
▪️ Over 1/2 of countries showed no progress in reducing smoking among 15-24 year olds
▪️ 1 in 3 current tobacco smokers live in China
Since 1990, global smoking prevalence among men decreased ⬇️ by 27% and by 37% among women. However, 20 countries saw significant increases in prevalence among men and 12 saw significant increases among women.
Read 15 tweets
6 May
This morning, we're releasing a major change in our COVID-19 model (➡️covid19.healthdata.org). We're now incorporating excess mortality to approximate the total COVID-19 death rate worldwide.
Our understanding of the magnitude of COVID-19 to date has been much worse than what we have been thinking. 🗓️ We are also extending our COVID-19 projections out to September 1, 2021 (they previously went out to August 1, 2021).
With this total COVID-19 mortality adjustment, these are the countries that we estimate currently have the highest total COVID-19 deaths .vs. reported COVID-19 deaths: Image
Read 13 tweets
29 Jan
📄📌PRESS RELEASE: Our new COVID-19 forecasts show the possibility of a spring spike in United States deaths if variants spread widely and people let down their guard.

Details in the thread ⤵️
Our #COVID19 forecasts, which you can find in the link below, now incorporate two new virus variants:

B.1.351 (first detected in South Africa)
B.1.1.7 (first detected in the UK)
covid19.healthdata.org/global
In a worst-case scenario, with widespread transmission of the B.1.351 variant and mobility returning to pre-pandemic levels in the vaccinated, the US is predicted to see approximately 654,000 total deaths by May 1.
Read 18 tweets
23 Oct 20
Our #COVID19 model and our methods are now publicly available in @NatureMedicine. Congratulations to our team, who have been working around the clock on this.

Read the #openaccess article: bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
🚨IMPORTANT🚨 The Nature Medicine article is best used as a guide to our forecasting methods. Our most up-to-date view on the pandemic is reflected in our public model, which currently extends to Feb 1.

View the latest update: covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…
Our forecasts are helping national and state-level decision-makers make more informed decisions on how to confront the pandemic at the local level.

Our US #COVID19 model was published today in @naturemedicine: bit.ly/naturecovidmod…
Read 9 tweets
11 Sep 20
Thank your feedback, questions, and critiques on our #COVID19 model. We’ve updated our FAQ, and are working to incorporate more feedback into our model and affiliated resources, including our Estimation Updates blog.🧵The following is a thread addressing recently asked questions:
What does our model say about expected new #COVID19 cases?

We are forecasting surges of new cases in Kansas, Missouri, New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia in the next week or two. Image
Where do we expect fall #COVID19 death surges?

We currently projects surges in deaths on Jan 1 (if 95% public masking is not adhered) in these states: AL, AZ, AK, CA, DE, CO, KS, IN, IA, MD, MT, NE, NM, NV, NY, NH, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, UT, VA, WA. Image
Read 22 tweets
7 Jul 20
What’s new this update?
◾ ️208,255 #COVID19 deaths in the US through November 1, 2020
◾️ More than 45,000 lives could be saved if 95% of people wear masks in public

View the latest projections ➡️ covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-… Image
“We can now see the projected trajectory of the epidemic into the fall, and many states are expected to experience significant increases in cases and deaths in September and October,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray

Press release📣healthdata.org/news-release/n… Image
“Mask mandates delay the need for re-imposing closures of businesses and have huge economic benefits.” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray.

Press release📣healthdata.org/news-release/n…
Read 7 tweets

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