▪️ Number of smokers increased to 1.1 billion
▪️ Caused 7.7 million deaths
▪️ Over 1/2 of countries showed no progress in reducing smoking among 15-24 year olds
▪️ 1 in 3 current tobacco smokers live in China
Since 1990, global smoking prevalence among men decreased ⬇️ by 27% and by 37% among women. However, 20 countries saw significant increases in prevalence among men and 12 saw significant increases among women.
🌎🌍🌏🚬 Countries with the largest number of tobacco smokers in 2019:
📣🚭 The authors call on all countries to urgently adopt and enforce a comprehensive package of evidence-based policies to reduce the prevalence of tobacco use and prevent initiation, particularly among adolescents and young adults.
The studies by the Global Burden of Disease collaboration #GBDstudy provide global estimates on smoking prevalence in 204 countries in men & women aged 15+ including age of initiation, associated diseases, as well as the first analysis of global trends in chewing tobacco use.
“...the tobacco epidemic will continue for years to come unless countries can dramatically reduce the number of new smokers starting each year,” said the study’s lead author @MarissaReitsma, a researcher at IHME.
🚬🌎🌍🌏 Secondhand smoking was linked to 1.3 million deaths worldwide in 2019.
Children are particularly vulnerable as they develop & women face a greater burden of exposure to secondhand smoking at home, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
Smokers are lighting up indoors during lockdowns in the majority of households in many countries, and having children in the household did not appear to deter people from smoking indoors.
Health leaders should consider:
🚭Measures to eliminate exposure like banning smoking in public spaces & multiunit housing facilities through smoke-free initiatives
🚭Encouraging voluntary adoption of indoor smoking restrictions at home
🚬🌏🌍🌎 About 35% of the world’s population is exposed to tobacco smoke at home or at work.
🚭⚕️ IHME Senior Fellow Luisa Flor discusses the health risks of secondhand smoke and ways that policy leaders can improve the health of their populations.
Fortunately, many countries were spared and some may even see decreases, according to early findings. But in the United States and Canada, fentanyl and lockdowns were a deadly combination.
Experts had warned for years that fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid, would lead to skyrocketing opioid deaths. In many states, the upward trend in opioid deaths began well before the virus landed in the United States. 📈🇺🇸
This morning, we're releasing a major change in our COVID-19 model (➡️covid19.healthdata.org). We're now incorporating excess mortality to approximate the total COVID-19 death rate worldwide.
Our understanding of the magnitude of COVID-19 to date has been much worse than what we have been thinking. 🗓️ We are also extending our COVID-19 projections out to September 1, 2021 (they previously went out to August 1, 2021).
With this total COVID-19 mortality adjustment, these are the countries that we estimate currently have the highest total COVID-19 deaths .vs. reported COVID-19 deaths:
📄📌PRESS RELEASE: Our new COVID-19 forecasts show the possibility of a spring spike in United States deaths if variants spread widely and people let down their guard.
Details in the thread ⤵️
Our #COVID19 forecasts, which you can find in the link below, now incorporate two new virus variants:
In a worst-case scenario, with widespread transmission of the B.1.351 variant and mobility returning to pre-pandemic levels in the vaccinated, the US is predicted to see approximately 654,000 total deaths by May 1.
Our #COVID19 model and our methods are now publicly available in @NatureMedicine. Congratulations to our team, who have been working around the clock on this.
🚨IMPORTANT🚨 The Nature Medicine article is best used as a guide to our forecasting methods. Our most up-to-date view on the pandemic is reflected in our public model, which currently extends to Feb 1.
Thank your feedback, questions, and critiques on our #COVID19 model. We’ve updated our FAQ, and are working to incorporate more feedback into our model and affiliated resources, including our Estimation Updates blog.🧵The following is a thread addressing recently asked questions:
What does our model say about expected new #COVID19 cases?
We are forecasting surges of new cases in Kansas, Missouri, New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia in the next week or two.
We currently projects surges in deaths on Jan 1 (if 95% public masking is not adhered) in these states: AL, AZ, AK, CA, DE, CO, KS, IN, IA, MD, MT, NE, NM, NV, NY, NH, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, TN, UT, VA, WA.
What’s new this update?
◾ ️208,255 #COVID19 deaths in the US through November 1, 2020
◾️ More than 45,000 lives could be saved if 95% of people wear masks in public
“We can now see the projected trajectory of the epidemic into the fall, and many states are expected to experience significant increases in cases and deaths in September and October,” said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray