Best time to learn about gamma squeeze was for $GME.
2nd best time to learn is now. For $AMC.
You don't needa understand gamma, vega, vanna, theta. You just gotta understand 3 simple pictures.
👇
1/ You buy 1 call option.
The market maker (MM) wants to stay "delta neutral" (i.e. zero net long, zero net short exposure).
But he just sold you 1 call. So he's short 1 call (i.e. short 100 shares' worth of exposure).
What does he do now? 😳🥴
2/ Don't worry. Market maker has a solution.
In response to being short 100 shares' risk, he needs to buy back 50 shares of underlying $AMC stock to bring himself back to "equilibrium."
Why not 100? Go to step 3 (final) 👉
3/ Delta hedging
pink + blue = purple.
pink line = MM's PnL from long 50 shares
blue = PnL from short 1 call
purple = PnL from short 1 contract & long 50 shares
Notice how purple is symmetric around the spot price. So as long as spot doesn't move, MM will be delta neutral.
Wait, but why is it called gamma squeeze if it's all about delta?
When MM buys 50 shares, that pushes price up. Now what happens when $AMC goes to $30, $50... $75?
TLDR: MM is no longer delta-neutral. MM is now long delta b/c of "gamma" (how much delta changes as price changes)
Let's go back to ur call. Say it had a gamma of .004. This means for every 1% change in $AMC, delta changes .4%.
So if AMC spikes 10% from $26.52 to $29.17, the MM's delta is now -0.004*10 = -0.04. Not zero!
To neutralize, MM must buy more stonk. So the vicious cycle continues.
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A hot nurse stabs one in ur arm. Wohoo! Ur immune to COVID! (ish)
Now how did this lil vax make it from bench to bedside?
👇 1/ Overview
--Pre-launch 2/ FDA stages 3/ Key drivers
--Post-launch 4/ Supply Chain 5/ Trends
--COVID 6/ Price tag 7/ History
1/ US pharma in a nutshell: high capex, highly regulated, long time to profitability.
Recent industry-wide trends (last 5-10yrs):
- Higher cost to bring drugs to market
- Pricing pressure from shift to value-based care
- Decreasing # of late stage pipeline assets
- Consolidation
Today, pharma co's face 3 main types of risk.
Scientific
- 12 yrs avg time to market
- only 0.1% of drugs make it to human testing from preclinical
Semis are 🔥🔥 in 2021! But how to trade ‘em?
Hot take: chips are commodities. Trade like oil, not tech.
👇
1 Ecosystem overview
2 Supply chain
3 Key drivers
4 Key Metrics
5 Macro catalysts
6 What's going on in 2021? COVID run-up & sell-off 📈📉
1/ Ecosystem
Semis trade like oil. Calling them "tech" is just deceiving.
What separates gurus from newbs isn’t knowing about wafers. It’s understanding the global value chain & drivers of supply/demand.
Here's a market map of key players & where they sit in the supply chain.
First, slice the ecosystem:
👉by component type (Memory, Logic, µP, Analog)
👉by end-market (Comms, PC, Consumer, Industrial, Auto)
Then identify top players per component product & per end-market.
Then trace demand flow:
from component type (source) ➡️ each end-market (dest).
The analyst next door won't shut up about the weather. "Cloud. Fog. Lakes. $SNOW!"
Soon it'll be animals. "Hive. Pig. Python!"
Welcome to tech, the most confusing sector w/ the most confused investors.
👇
1/ Subsectors
Tech is a vast umbrella, spanning different business models with different go-to-markets, customers & KPIs.
Creating a good market map is the #1 challenge. Go too broad & everything looks like SaaS; go too deep & your brains'll blow out fast.
Here's how i segment the land:
A. Consumer tech:
- internet/mobile apps
- hardware & IoT
B. Enterprise tech:
- SaaS
- services
- infrastructure (software, data, & IT/network)
- hardware & semis
For each subsector I'll cover its business models, metrics, catalysts & multiples.
"Pain+Reflection=Progress" ~Ray Dalio
The post-mortem is the hedge fund PM's leg day: can't skip.
Done right, it's a systematic exercise that mega boosts performance. Yet ppl never explain how to do one.
So @SeifelCapital(CS) & I teamed up
👇
0/ Start with "pre-mortem"
Think back to when u entered the trade. 1. What asymmetric risk-reward opportunity did you see? 2. What catalysts would drive results in ur favor? 3. What risks were u wary of?
We'll do a 2nd follow-up🧵to focus on pre-mortem but here's a sneak peak:
1/ PnL Results
Fast-forward back to today. The catalyst you'd been playing for just happened (e.g. earnings, demo day, FOMC)
Your brokerage acct says +8%.
"So my thesis was correct!" you think.
Not quite.
CS explains "Look at both absolute return & risk adjusted return."
Today's news that CPI surged 4.2% sent equities and crypto markets to hell. But WHY??
What are the mechanics of how inflation affects equities, and why is tech falling hardest?
Here's a thread on inflation's 1st & 2nd order effects.
👇
1/ Inflation Lowers the NPV of Money
Say I'll give u $100 in 1yr. How much 💸is that worth today? If every $1 you invest now can earn 3% interest, then it's worth ~$97.
Let's add hypothetical inflation of 2%. Now the real rate is 5%. So your promised $100 is only $95.
What does lower NPV mean for stock valuations?
If you've done DCFs, you know that the equity value of a company is literally the sum of its cashflows projected out to ♾ then discounted back to today.
You hear about the hottest earnings this week: $UPST, $ABNB, $PLTR, $DIS ... & excitedly tune in to your 1st call.
2min later. "What r they talkin' abt? How does this help me trade??"
So many metrics, which are important?
Here's a guide👇
1/ Pre-call diligence
To know what's going on, u should collect the following info ahead of call:
a. Street estimates on revenue, EBIT, & EPS
b. Latest guidance #'s from mgmt
c. Last 4 quarters' revenue/EPS beats/misses & how the stock reacted
d. Last 4 quarters' QoQ growth #'s
Example:
$DIS reports Q2 '21 results on 5/13
I've pulled actual v. estimated EPS from the last 4 quarters & corresponding stock performance.
Things to note:
- actual EPS consistently beats estimates (which means $DIS mgmt team is conservative about providing forward guidance)