Thread by @docrussjackson

#THREAD

Various bankers & journalists have recently been very upbeat about the prospects for Britain's economic recovery:

"The British economy will be booming. It is not yet widely appreciated just how big this boom will be" - Andrew Neil.

My advice: don't believe the hype.

Last week the Bank of England said: "Economic growth in Britain this year should not be confused with a normal boom... economy shrank almost 10% last year, biggest slump in 300 years".

While the opinion polls show a 'vaccine bounce' for the Tories, again: don't believe the hype.

A fascinating new opinion poll by the respected Pew Research Center, discussed in the Financial Times, tells a fascinating story about how a clear majority in the US & Western Europe support large scale, systemic change.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021…

As Gillian Tett writes in the FT:

"You might have thought that the development of vaccines and thus the prospect of an exit from fresh lockdowns would have sparked an upbeat mood... But it isn’t so."

ft.com/content/081914… via @financialtimes

Roughly two-thirds of respondents in France and exactly half of those in the US, UK & Germany said they wanted either a “major overhaul” or “complete reform” of ­economic structures.

Only a tiny minority – as low as 3% in France – said they backed the status quo.

Remember fewer than three in ten of the UK electorate voted for the @Conservatives in #GE2019, & despite what the right-wing press & broadcast channels keep telling us, people are far more concerned about inequality & the economy than 'the woke' - whatever it's supposed to mean.

The survey suggests that the British are even more eager than continental Europeans to see higher levels of government control & redistribution.

In fact, 67% of British people strongly support MORE regulation of business, whereas it is 53% in Germany & just 46% in the US.

British people desire a much more expansive role of the state: 62% deem it “very important” for the government to build more public housing, & 53% for it to increase benefits to the poor - higher than other countries. 50% want a universal basic income, much higher than elsewhere.

The fact that British voters are expressing higher levels of support for government regulation & redistribution than the French & Germans, might reflect the fact that in free-market-obsessed Britain, we have had much less of this than our peers on the continent in recent decades.

The survey implies we cannot assume that any economic rebound & return to “normal” will automatically lead to voters embracing the status quo: the poll is showing a bigger zeitgeist shift, partly driven by the pandemic but with deeper roots, which could reshape policy attitudes.

The FT's Gillian Tett speculates that the reason there is high demand for government intervention is that #COVID19 has not only exposed grotesque levels of #inequality, but has reminded people just how uncertain the future is.

Maybe "there is a search under way for protection".

Hilary Cottam, UCL: “The [post-pandemic] flourishing we want can’t be brought about by postwar institutions.”

Jenna Bednar, Michigan Uni: the social fabric has decayed so far that a complete overhaul of our institutions is needed to create a more collaborative, inclusive system.

The scramble to develop & distribute the vaccine has not only shown people that governments can – sometimes – do good things, including collaborating with the private sector, but that companies can sometimes work together too, instead of just competing.

If/when we eventually emerge from #COVID19, do not just look to the economic data; look to see if a subtler shift in the zeitgeist is also under way.

Returning to “normal” does not necessarily mean re-embracing the old systems.

Political & corporate elites should take note.