#PNBHousing #PNB
1/N

Today's announcement abt proposed Caryle led 4K cr investment in the co is against minority shareholders

As a background PNB and Carlyle both owns ~1/3 of the co. and ~10% by GA. (~25% by rest of the public)

FY21 Results for co
pnbhousing.com/wp-content/upl…
2/N
Above results and management con call confirmed that there was no extraordinary stress with the co. Infact it was profitable, adequately capitalized (CRAR >20%) and expected only 75bps of credit cost in FY22
Then what was the need for co. to issue 4K crs at 25% discount to BV
3/N

which gives majority control to #Carlyle without the need to pay for control premium at the cost of minority investors

Original plan of 1800 crs rights issue was the right way to raise capital. Even when RBI didn't give approval to PNB, the co decided to pref allotment
4/N

This is where things get murkier and doesn't pass the smell test. Instead of raising 1800 crs , co decided to raise 4K crs which will give Carlyle majority control through the back door without paying control premium. Whats worse GA was also allowed to buy at 390-400
So everyone is allowed (except PNB because and RBI) and minority investors. Why didn't co. didn't do rights issue and allowed minority investors to participate?

Why didn't co announce #AdityaPuri joining the board before the capital raise?
5/N

If they had to do a pref why not restrict it to 1000-1500 crs? Its not that co needs a lot of capital at this point.

Even at 1800crs pref to same investors , price would have zoomed to >600/- They could have done a subsequent raise next year.
6/N

Assuming price will settle at 600/-,
Carlyle robbed minority investors of ~500Crs. (25% of 4K @ 400 or 1k would have become 1.5K cr at 600/-)

Thankfully #Mahindra Finance and many other firms opted for rights issue

Poor corporate governance!!!!

@contrarianEPS
@dmuthuk

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More from @Random_Gyan

9 Jan
#WeekendMusings

Post on #Nifty 500 valuations wrt to its own history.

Why Nifty 500 and not Nifty50?

1) Because Nifty500 represents >95% mkt cap of India

2) Doesn't suffer from historical composition bias

As of 31st Dec20, the index has following statistical data.
Without adjustments the index on 31st Dec trading at PE of 43x / PB of 3.7x / Div Yield of 1.2%. Assuming a normal curve there represents following percentiles 100% (PE), 87% (PB) , 77% (Div Yield)

However earnings are depressed because of Covid. Current implied EPS is at ~265.
During Dec'19 the implied EPS was ~330. Assuming the same today the PE is at 34x ( 99%ile!!). Say the best case scenario that normalized EPS is 400 area, the PE would still be 29x (or 93%ile).

Clearly basis last 25 yr history markets today is top 5%-10% most expensive.
Read 4 tweets
27 Jun 20
1/N

Indian Investors have converted this famous WB quote to buy “quality” at any price! IMHO this is one of the costliest incidences of Chinese whisper!!!!!

However today I look at #Jubilant FoodWorks which appears to be a fair company at absurd valuations Image
2/N

My observations basis limited history of 10 yrs

Positives
•Remarkable past execution (30 mins delivery)
•Excellent historical growth
•Great Return Ratios (ROCE, ROE)
•Reasonable growth expectations going forward Image
3/N

Negative

•Doesn’t own the brand!! (Risk of dispute not factored)
•Questionable Promoters (Tried to extract a royalty for using the “Jubilant” brand. This for a co. which pays royalty to use #Dominos brand!!)
•Growth Slowdown (from ~40% to ~15%)
•Decline in return ratios
Read 6 tweets
14 Jun 20
1/N

Truman (ex US president) famously said “The only thing new in the world is the history you do not know”

With that in mind, I look at #Nestle financial history in India since 1993 (27 yrs of History)

Period 1 - CY93-CY2003
Sales -14.8% (CAGR)
NP - 21.8%
Mkt Cap - (9.1%)
2/N

Observations - Returns between '93 and '03 were low because of 2 factors - Starting PE was very high and Ending PE was decade low

Period 2 - "CY04-CY13"

Sales - 15.5% (CAGR)
NP - 15.6%
Mkt Cap - 23.3%

Observations - High returns becasue of low starting PE
3/N

Period 3 - "CY13 onwards

Sales - 5.3% (CAGR)
NP - 9.9%
Mkt Cap - 23%!!!

Observation - Sales/Earnings slowing (Maybe GST, Maggi debacle) but Mkt cap continued to grow 10% extra every year) to reach historic highs. This is bad setup for future returns.
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr 20
1/N

In 1934 Ben Graham and later in 1973 Buffet said

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine”

With that lens, my analysis on #HUL Valuations over 27 yrs

Rapid Growth (’92 to ‘01) – Sales 23%; EPS 30% Price 22% CAGR
2/N

Lost Decade (CY01-FY10) – Sales 5.4%; EPS 3.7%; Price 0.8% CAGR
3/N

Steady State (FY10-FY20) Sales 8.4%; EPS 12.3%; Price 25%
Read 11 tweets
25 Apr 20
Below chart courtesy @abhishec_s

Observations (while limited data points)

1. Mcap/sales (0.5-2x)
2. Market discounts next 10 yrs. To make decent money on absurd starting P/E , 10 yrs hence , markets estimate of another 10 yrs should be rosy. Effectively 20yrs of performance.
Dmart Investors - Assuming next 27 yrs is as good as walmart the returns will be 10.5% CAGR. Assuming 2x walmart CAGR is 13.4%

The best case scenario is medicore. or Head I loose, Tail I don't win much.
(This is inverted version of @MohnishPabrai saying)
Not saying you can't make a lot of money in High P/E growth companies.

You can as long as you know when to exit!!

Someone who has done this successfully is @BMTheEquityDesk who exited in Pantaloons, Bharti Airtel, Page etc in time.

He might have already exited BajajF as well
Read 4 tweets
8 Apr 20
1/N

ITC Snapshot

For co's with stable cash flows (pricing power), starting PE is the biggest driver of future returns. Notice how between '92-'97 negative returns despite 25% p.a. profit Growth. Reverse was true between 2002-07. 27% p.a. returns despite 18% p.a. PAT growth
2/N

My speculation over the next 5-10 yrs

1. Cig+Hotels div profits grows 7% - 10% p.a.
2. FMCG profits to see J curve. Rev expectation of 50k - 70K with 10 -15% PAT margins (Management goal 1Lakh cr rev by '30)
3. Range of outcoumes from 25K (no FMCG J curve) - 40K profits
3/N

4. Dividend Payout ratio to remain 80-85%
5. Exit PE between 15x - 30x
6. Entry price of 180/- (Div of 9/- in May'20)

The Net results is as follows
Read 4 tweets

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