THREAD
Thanks to @ischinger and MSC team's efforts, the @MunSecConf discussion on Russia-West relations last week was clear-eyed and sobering. Couple of quick observations and thoughts. 1/
2/ By now Western diplomats & experts know 🇷🇺 official talking points so well that they are able to draft perfect statements for @mfa_russia or the Kremlin. Of course, the opposite is true as well: people in Moscow are sick and tired of predictable Western arguments too.
3/ The root of🇷🇺 desire to use conversations for lecturing Western counterparts is clear: it's a deplorable state of foreign policy debate, and the goal is to please the listener in the Kremlin. Unfortunately, this desire is most of the times reciprocated. carnegie.ru/commentary/590…
4/ Not that we shouldn't continue this entertaining conversation, but we need to abandon hopes that attempts to unpack mutual grievances between Russia and the West can bring us any closer at this moment. Not even when some very smart women&men from both sides are in the room.
5/ Instead of trying to solve various fundamental problems at this point, our time should first and foremost be dedicated to clear communication of red lines and risk management. Discussions on strategic stability fall into that category.
6/ Some pragmatic recommendations on how to implement this approach for making 🇷🇺🇪🇺less toxic by @DmitriTrenin: carnegie.ru/commentary/839…
7/ Similar pragmatic recommendations for 🇺🇸🇷🇺 ties from @CarnegieEndow colleagues @eugene_rumer & @andrewsweiss from the other side of the Atlantic: carnegieendowment.org/2021/03/09/bac…
8/ Solving the differences would require fundamental changes in Russia, the West, or both. Couple of months back @sguriev & I have discussed how these changes could look on the 🇷🇺 side (in Russian only, but English version coming soon). END

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More from @AlexGabuev

2 Jun
THREAD
As @Huawei releases Harmony OS today, this @washingtonpost story provides important insights on how embattled 🇨🇳 tech giant uses 🇷🇺 talent to diminish impact of 🇺🇸 sanctions. It also highlights some overlooked aspects of Beijing-Moscow ties. 1/ washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
2/ In this well-researched piece, @evadou, @ikhurshudyan & Pei Lin Wu describe how after 🇺🇸 sanctions @Huawei has beefed up its partnership with 🇷🇺 research institution and went on hiring spree for Russian IT talents, mostly mathematicians and specialists in algorithms.
3/ Huawei has a history of significant reliance on 🇷🇺 IT talents going back many years, as company's founder Ren Zhengfei confessed back in 2019: guancha.cn/politics/2019_…
Read 14 tweets
19 May
Putin and Xi have launched construction of 4 new blocs on 2 Chinese nuclear power plants built by @rosatom. A reminder that 🇨🇳🇷🇺 energy cooperation is not just about hydrocarbons, and that there are areas beyond arms where Russia still is a source of high-tech for China. 1/
2/ This @business piece provides a good background of the $3.1b deal (signed during Putin's 2018 state visit to 🇨🇳) that involves construction of 2 blocks of Tianwan (田湾) in Jiangsu & 2 blocs of Xudapu (徐大堡) in Liaoning bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ For @rosatom, the 2018 deal was important in competition against @EDFofficiel & @WECNuclear in 🇨🇳 market. No less important was the 2019 contract to supply nuclear fuel (took a painful year to negotiate it after the main contract was signed) rosatom.ru/en/press-centr…
Read 7 tweets
12 May
An all-star panel on 🇨🇳🇷🇺 by @CarnegieBeijing featuring @paulhaenle, @andrewsweiss, @SpivakV and @PKU1898's Guan Guihai 关贵海. This nuanced discussion is a good starting point to unpack the increasingly important relationship between Moscow and Beijing. carnegieendowment.org/2021/05/12/chi…
2/ In addition to the panel, it's worth checking out some of the recent pieces in growing body of @CarnegieEndow's works on the topic. Here @SpivakV (@CarnegieRussia alumni, ex-@UC_RUSAL, now with @Control_Risks) unpacks what 十四五means for 🇨🇳🇷🇺econ ties carnegie.ru/commentary/841…
3/ Here @eugene_rumer & @dicktfirefly explore whether 🇺🇸 can drive a wedge between 🇷🇺🇨🇳. Spoiler alert: 🙅‍♂️❌⛔️, but do read their nuanced reasoning. carnegie.ru/commentary/839…
Read 5 tweets
3 Mar
THREAD 🧵
Tectonic shifts in Russia's trade and exposure to global centers of economic gravity are happening quietly, but surely. In 2013, before Crimea and Western sanctions, 🇷🇺🇪🇺trade volume was 5x of 🇷🇺🇨🇳. Just 7 years after, trade with EU is only 2x bigger than with China. 1/
2/🇪🇺share of 🇷🇺 trade:
2013 - 49.4%
2019 - 41.6%
2020 - 38.5%
3/ 🇨🇳 share of 🇷🇺 trade:
2013 - 10.5%
2019 - 16.7%
2020 - 18.3%
Read 7 tweets
29 Jan
THREAD
It's hard to predict how many people will show up to January 31 rallies in Russia to support @navalny. But the risk of violent incidents has gone up significantly, and one of the key factors here is choice of location for Moscow protest. Let me explain it quickly 👇
2/ Team Navalny has chosen Lubyanskaya and Old Squares in Moscow. That's where HQ of FSB and the Presidential Administration (PA) are located. According to organizers, the logic is that @navalny was poisoned by FSB squad, and the decision was likely taken by the Kremlin.
3/ Why does this choice of location create additional risk of violence and incidents compared to Pushkinskaya Square a week ago? There are three main reasons.
Read 9 tweets
27 Jan
THREAD
What is overlooked in analysis of #RussiaProtest after @navalny's arrest? It's sophistication that the Kremlin has developed in addressing such threats, and lack of realistic strategy by Putin's opponents. Let's put together some unpleasant facts 👇 foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/26/put…
2/ Of course, it's hard not to be impressed by @navalny's and his family's courage, as well as by energy and scale of protests on January 23. Good summary by @yaffaesque for @NewYorker here: newyorker.com/news/dispatch/…
3/ @navalny's investigation about Putin's palace (>96 million views now!) and street protests are seen as a serious challenge by the Kremlin, which is visible in heavy-handed crackdown on Navalny's team&family, as @HenryJFoy & @maxseddon document here: ft.com/content/45be9f…
Read 25 tweets

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