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Heidi Shierholz

3 Jun, 9 tweets, 3 min read

Last week 461,000 people applied for UI. This included 385,000 who applied for regular state UI (seasonally adjusted) and 76,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Claims are steadily coming down as the labor market strengthens. The 461,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 37,000 from the prior week. The 4-week moving average of total initial claims also decreased by 37,000. 2/

Total initial claims are now around 40% what they were the first week of March, just shy of three months ago. This is a remarkable improvement. 3/

However, total initial claims are still 2.5 times what they were before COVID. If you restrict this comparison to regular state claims—which is appropriate because we didn’t have PUA pre-COVID—initial claims are 2.1 times where they were before COVID. 4/

This chart shows continuing claims in all programs over time (latest data are for May 15th). Total continuing claims are steadily declining. The 4-wk moving average has come down by 3.5 million just since early March, but it’s still around 14 mil above where it was before COVID.

https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1392273792626421760?s=20

Many are asking whether expanded unemployment benefits are damaging the labor market by keeping workers from taking jobs. THERE IS NO COMPELLING EVIDENCE OF THIS. This thread has some info showing that. 6/

https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1392273792626421760?s=20

Nonetheless, many republican-led states are preparing to cancel pandemic UI benefits. This will not just hurt workers who can’t find work or can’t work right now, it will hurt the economy in these states, b/c those benefits are supporting spending. It’s terrible economics. 7/

@pelhamprog

This excellent piece by @pelhamprog shows, by state, how many workers will be affected and how much money they (and their states) will lose if states cancel federal unemployment benefits. 8/ tcf.org/content/commen…

Note: the impact of states cancelling UI benefits is not yet showing up because the earliest termination date any of these states has announced is mid-June. 9/

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More from @hshierholz

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

4 Jun

The labor market added 559,000 jobs in May, very strong growth in line with expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, and most of that drop was for “good” reasons, people getting jobs. 1/

However, we still have 7.6 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession, in February 2020. 2/

Further that 7.6 million is not the total gap in the labor market. Without COVID, we would have *added* jobs over the last 15 months as the working-age population grew. Taking that into account, the total gap in the labor market right now is at least 8.5 million jobs. 3/

Read 20 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

12 May

Talk of labor shortages is everywhere. What is really going on? A thread. 1/

Before the April jobs data were released last Friday, the data did not point to widespread labor shortages. But the April data—while still not pointing to *widespread* labor shortages—are indeed flashing shortages in isolated sectors. 2/

Backing up for a second: Remember that the footprint of a labor shortage is very fast wage growth. If an employer can’t attract the workers they need, they will raise wages to poach workers from other employers, who will in turn raise wages to retain their workers, and so on. 3/

Read 24 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

7 May

The labor market added 266,000 jobs in April, solid growth but far below expectations. Growth in March was also revised down. Further, we still have 8.2 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession, in February 2020. 1/

And, that 8.2 million is not the total gap in the labor market. Pre-COVID, we were adding about 200,000 jobs a month. At that pace, we would have added 2.8 million jobs in the last 14 months, so the total gap in the labor market right now is around 8.2 + 2.8 = 11 million jobs. 2/

https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1389571936506634245?s=20

Do today’s data reveal whether there is anything behind anecdotal claims of worker shortages, particularly in restaurants? (As background, here’s my thread explaining why I’m quite skeptical of claims of widespread labor shortages.) 3/

https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1389571936506634245?s=20

Read 25 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

6 May

Last week 599,000 people applied for UI. This included 498,000 who applied for regular state UI (seasonally adjusted) and 101,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Claims are high but moving in the right direction. The 599,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 112,000 from the prior week. The 4-week moving average of total initial claims decreased by 74,000. 2/

Total initial claims are still three times what they were before COVID. (If you restrict to regular state claims—because we didn’t have PUA pre-COVID—initial claims are 2.5 times where they were before COVID.) 3/

Read 9 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

4 May

There are certainly a lot of anecdotal reports right now of employers not being able to find the workers they need, particularly in restaurants. But unemployment is still very elevated—particularly among restaurant workers. What’s going on? 1/

First, remember there is *always* a chorus of employers who claim they can’t find the employees they need. One reason for that is that in a system as large and complex as the U.S. labor market there will always be pockets of bona fide labor shortages at any given time. 2/

But a more common reason is employers simply not wanting to raise wages high enough to attract workers. Employers post their too-low wages, can’t find workers to fill jobs at that pay level, and claim they’re facing a labor shortage. 3/

Read 27 tweets

Heidi Shierholz

@hshierholz

24 Feb

Welp I was just the person testifying at a congressional hearing who had to be told she was on mute.

This is a hearing on the minimum wage and omg before this I had mistakenly let myself believe that the myth that min wage workers are teenagers had been debunked.

PEOPLE. Only ONE IN TEN workers who would benefit from a $15 min wage in 2025 are teenagers.

Wow there is a lot of confusion about the impact of minimum wage increases on prices. The facts: it is true that *some* of the impact of minimum wage increases is passed along in the form of higher prices. 3/

Read 8 tweets

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