Some fresh home builder commentary for top #Texas markets. In general, buyer interest lists aren’t shrinking much, and if a few drop-off, builders are easily backfilling. Drumbeat a bit louder on prices getting too high. Demand still pretty nuts.🧵to follow...
#Houston builder: “Buyer interest lists are shrinking slightly. Likely too much price pressure, it’s out of hand.”
#Houston builder: “We’ll be metering sales again in June.”
#Houston builder: “Lots of people getting priced out of the market. $90K household income to buy what $74K could 11 months ago. Buyers are still showing up though. Raising prices weekly and staying away from dirt sales because cost creep before slab is too risky.”
#Houston builder: “Concerned that when costs come down, what percentage of buyers bail on existing contracts that aren’t delivered yet.”
#Houston builder: “Some buyers are getting sticker shock at time of mortgage application. Seeing a lot of bust outs in first 30 days of contract.”
#Austin builder: “Buyer interest lists are changing, not shrinking. Anyone who was priced out has moved on but list is filling up with new prospects.”
#Austin builder: “Breaking new price records weekly for our communities.”
#Austin builder: “No issues finding enough buyers for our metered sales quotas at our listed prices.”
#Dallas builder: “Buyers are falling out because of affordability, but there’s been enough new prospects to not affect the sales pace we want.”
#Dallas builder: “As new pricing gets released we have people fall off our lists, but those continue to be backfilled. Over 1,000 people already on VIP list for small lot deal just listed as 'coming soon' community.”
END OF🧵

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More from @RickPalaciosJr

19 May
Here's May mid-month home builder channel check I hinted at earlier. Builders are pushing prices w/little pushback, though some starting. Some builders are using price escalators & highest/best offer. Many limiting pre-sales, shifting to spec, & pricing home later in build cycle.
#Dallas builder: “Not selling build jobs in May, starting specs only, and not selling until drywall. Costs are too out of control for us to take the inflation risk on build jobs. So sales are way down.”
#SanAntonio builder: “Only selling specs at Sheetrock stage. Last month, it was frame stage.”
Read 28 tweets
14 May
Going through our monthly macro housing/econ deck (it's almost 400 slides)! 10 charts that caught my attention.

1/10: Apparently people buy homes even if mortgage rates aren't 3% or below.
2/10: Looks like mortgage lending is back to pre-COVID norms. Lenders saying 'easy' fell off a cliff in 2Q20 but now back to norm.
3/10: Builders jacked prices 16% YOY in April, about 4x the rate of appreciation pre-COVID.
Read 10 tweets
10 May
I did an April home builder commentary 🧵last week, switching to building material dealers this week (companies making/selling products to home builders). We asked, “What worries you the most, regarding your business & the remainder of 2021?” Here’s what followed…
“Material cost volatility degrading margins for the duration of the year; labor availability is a close second.”
“Continued supply chain disruptions and product availability.”
Read 10 tweets
6 May
Here’s on the ground local home builder commentary from across the country per our April survey. A lot of builders are pressing the pause button &/or slowing things down until construction costs moderate & they can catch up with sales. Worries about buyer price ceilings too...
#Chicago home builder commentary: “We sold all of the homes we had in early 2021 & haven’t started anything new, & may not due to the cost of construction. Can’t hold pricing for clients longer than 45 days with rising material pricing.”
#Nashville home builder commentary: “Pray for lower lumber prices.”
Read 13 tweets
21 Apr
Some interesting housing color from mid-April around the country home builder channel check. Bunch of market commentary to follow...will try to hit most top markets.
#SaltLakeCity home builder mid-April color: “Still have 10x buyers to available homes to buy. Went to 'highest/ best' offer system March 1st & offers over asking price are shocking. Most offers are 10+% over ask, that's after raised base prices $10K to $20K+ with each release.”
#Austin home builder mid-April color: “Super high demand. Volume controlled with release process, otherwise would be unbearable. Some price increases are $100K between releases.”
Read 28 tweets
5 Feb
Just published January @JBREC home builder survey. Market's still strong. Some builder color to paint the picture:

Boise builder: "Only reason sales aren't higher is because we're listing spec homes later in process and limiting starts to avoid gapping on lots.”
Bend, OR builder: "Getting calls daily from brokers asking when we'll be listing homes they see under construction. Cannot build fast enough!"
Atlanta builder: "Pricing is off the charts. We're well over 20% YOY when you look at base pricing, lot premiums, and no incentives.”
Read 8 tweets

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