To be fair, my flippant comments about the BTC conference being a bit cringe was a reflection of the media coverage of the more extreme aspects but the truth is the speakers and many of the attendees are some of the smartest, most interesting forward thinkers Ive ever known.
We all have to learn to separate the people from the technology and opportunity. It is not about individuals, but about adoption of a network. Everyone plays their role and each plays different roles.
The negative reaction to some of the more over the top speakers also shows that the space has transitioned from early phase to a more mature adoption phase where individuals create less marginal positive impact and may even have negative impact
These firm, amongst many others are the new KEY players. Not me, Max Keiser, Pomp or anyone else.
That includes @elonmusk but his focus on the space, asking the questions and poking at the tribalism is a net positive over the long run, as the space has to adapt if it wants broader adoption. BTC may be pristine but it is only part of the story. We need to keep an open mind.
We also need to answer criticism without offence, trolling, defensiveness and all the other bullshit that comes with insecurity. There is nothing to be insecure about. Same with regulation, CBDC's etc. It is all good. It all helps create value.
That also applies to things we don't perceive as valuable but which may end up valuable. The @lexfridman interview of @VitalikButerin recently showed how open minded the space should be, yet still critical to assess what is real and what is not (whilst still not knowing!)
All the push back on Tether etc is also good, same as ESG. Systems and networks need to get tested by hard questions that annoy many. It is important. It only creates Lindy Effects if dealt with rationally.
In the end, if you want BTC and the digital asset ecosystem to win, you need to be taken seriously, accept criticism and adapt in order to thrive.
These new business champions, less extreme but extremely hard working, will turn this $2trn to a $100trn asset class and beyond.
But my view, for what is is worth (not a lot), is that this up ends not only up ending finance, but most business models too, as value begins to coalesce around community as opposed to corporations and products.
As Hunter S. Thompson said "But the ticket, take the ride".
Enjoy the wild ride.
*urgh "Buy the ticket, take the ride".
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I find DeMark Indicators work well for me for assessing probabilities. The weekly 9 on the log trend line in BTC feels about the right chance of a reversal higher. If this fails over a few weeks (lower odds), its will lead to much longer pain. Lets see...
A major asset class crashed 42% in 14 days, wiping out $1.02trn in value in an orgy of liquidation of people up to 100 x levered, with very low regulation. Many tokens fell up to 70%, including unregulated lending and borrowing biz.
Beneath the head line:
Crypto had a major, major VAR-shock test and NOTHING happened.
Leverage liquidation was offset by overcollateralisation. No one was left holding the baby.
No firm went under.
The Fed didn't need to step in.
Defi didn't break and carried on near normal
There were no daisy chains of collateral losses.
There was no collateral pressure.
Stablecoins remained stable.
A few exchanges went down for an hour or two. No exchange big losses occurred, no need to mutualise losses either.
No protocol failed.
No firms needed rapid funding.
One of the key features of Network Effect models is volatility within a logarithmic trend. The vol is a feature not a bug as it is more than compensated by the returns over time.
Im just mulling over the evolution of the digital asset space...
My thoughts are that obviously we are mid cycle in this bull run. The two big breakout developments this time were Defi and NFT's. 1/2
When we get the next down cycle, there will be a clean up in this space and the winners will be ready for their mass adoption phase.
We haven't even started with what NFT's will morph into. It is not about art. It is about attaching trust and verification to anything.
I literally have no idea what protocols outside of BTC and ETH will get actual meaningful adoption. None of us do but some will and some will become ghost chains.
I fist bought Bitcoin in November 2013. Here is the original article where I applied rudimentary stock to flow analysis, later perfected by @100trillionUSD
My equivalence price target was 700 ounces of gold = one BTC. At currency prices that is around $1.3m.
It kind of created a stir back then and gave the first ever macro valuation model for BTC.
It was also based around adoption effects...
Obviously, I think it actually exceeds the gold relative valuation over time. This cycle might get it to the original fair value, maybe not.