Thread by @atatimelikethis

1 in 3 developing world vaccines at "cost price"
"Oxford Astrazeneca"; British "Generosity"

Sounds like we did something good, right?

😢

TLDR: HMG was forced into climbing down from a boneheaded profit policy. "At cost" was the result AND the status quo before their blunder.

When this story first went round in May 2020, it was used as a warning about the dangers of variants.

😢 As a warning it failed

Why?
1. No one knew about variants
2. Few knew cost free vaccines had become policy from late 1990s

You're all experts on 1 now

What about 2. policy?
A statement:
"The only good thing the WTO ever did was to protect the profits of big pharma in Public Health"

Controversial? Actually no - except for "good". That was manufactured.

That spin is crucial to understand

Since you're now in AC world, you can imagine how it is to develop a way to combat a global disease.

The disease is scary, it mutates, many people are getting sick from it, there's a lot of ignorance, it's creating bigotry, predjudice.

Good or bad for you Mr Big Pharma?

If you said "bad" sign up for cynicism training.

This is the dream.

The profits to combat terminal disease are almost unlimited; throw in sex - they become infinite.

Because this is AZT and the disease is HIV

No way you're allowing the developing world AT COST generics

Generics eat your profit margins, a direct and immediate competitor.

What you need is to maximise profits in rich Western markets, and, well, if people die elsewhere that's sad, but people die elsewhere from many things.

Cold financial logic.
So why do we NOW have generics?

YOU are a 1990s virologist
- no sarcasm
- you know more about...
viral mutation,
vaccination,
variants evolving defences against vaccines

...than almost anyone from the 1990s.
YOU lived through it.
What happens to your HIV drug if you only treat the West?

Antiretrovirals are not vaccines but that just makes your problem worse.

YOU know what WOULD have happened?

No HIV variants in the West.
But mass uncontrolled HIV transmission elsewhere WOULD create new variants.
just one resistant strain
and one night of passion.

YOU'RE now chief Virologist at big Pharma - how fast does the new resistant strain transfer to the West?

It doesn't - because you wouldn't allow the policy in the first place. You'd be shooting yourself in the foot.

By maximising profits, you'd be limiting them.

It took about 2 years for Pharma to realise the mistake ~ 1995 - 1997.

Unlike you they learned about viral resistance live. And scientists came up with a brilliant way to deal with it (combination therapy)... BECAUSE pharma allowed it to happen.

Lost profits = ACTION

4 years and in 2001 THE DOHA DECLARATION ON THE TRIPS AGREEMENT AND PUBLIC HEALTH
signed at the WTO
supported by the WHO
as a magnanimous gift of generics from the west, to the developing world
lives saved.

amazing then how much big Pharma money funded the sponsors 🤨🤔🙄.

WHAT'S THIS ALL GOT TO DO WITH
TRUMP?

AND TEAM JOHNSON WITH THEIR INCREDIBLE
AMAZING
MAGNANIMOUS
BENEVOLENT
BENEFICIENT
GESTURE TO GIVE THE OXFORD VACCINES TO THE WORLD AT COST?

You now know it's no gesture.

It's the STATUS QUO

😢The spin is even more evil than it appears

The re-establishment of the Status Quo had to be forced.
The other reason this story was told in May 2020 was Trump announcing in typical MAGA fashion that there would be no #Covid19 generics, that the US would maximise its profits.

Scientists the world over⏬

Guess which Government backed Trump all the way? Yours faithfully. Team Johnson.

It took about 4 months.

Maybe some nameless hero eventually managed to educate cabinet on basic viral science. Maybe the decision to claim vaccines as their achievement forced the issue...

Whatever the cause, by October 2020,
[in the aftermath of a summer of madness that is an ideal case study if you want to make new #Covid19 variants]
ministers started hinting about variants, suggesting they presented risks against our then potential and still future vaccines

Trump wasn't pleased ⏬
Which already tells you we'd finally made the right decision.

But think about the "gift" positioning, and how much damage we did and still do not really understanding it.

bmj.com/content/370/bm…
pharmaphorum.com/news/uk-pledge…
pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/covid-…

There are many reasons that scientists and medics are deeply disturbed by the actions and methods of this Government.

I haven't polled this, it's a personal opinion. Of those reasons these are 3 most deadly.

Not being informed
Not learning from mistakes
Covering them up

Science values mistakes - it's based fundamentally on theories that don't work out. Every mistake is an opportunity to learn.

If you run a stasi-like culture where mistakes are never admitted, how then can you learn to do better next time?

You cant, and we haven't because:

Appendix
I'll add more sources as people request them.
The May 2020 thread is here, it includes links on Doha

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1262900418163736576?s=20

related - this wasn't the only science blunder, it's along list [

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1368246388455321611?s=20

]

BTW DOHA is not safe, it's original term ended in 2016. It's under maintenance, and attacked, politically.

Ignorant politicians who don't understand DOHA (et. al) outnumber scientists who can explain the consequences many to one.

You can help "good" by telling the story.

i hate autotype, except all the times it's helpful.
so this is for "its original term"
and all the other typos I missed.