Thread by @atatimelikethis

The analysis of electoral results is full of distortion, just like pre-electoral advertising lies and soon to come lies in a battle of lefty agendas.

A system that at every level builds lies is corrupt. It guarantees the worst outcome for all

So what do the data say?⬇️

First GE19 (Hartlepool context)

Corbyn...honestly, I think he was a strategic disaster for Labour, but it's dishonest to say he was the main reason LAB lost.

It's also a lie to say #Brexit lost it.

The overwhelming and unaddressed factors?
Turnout, Split Votes 1/

Of the multiple datasets showing this, you can see more in Prof Theimo's excellent analysis [

https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1205429097356300288?s=19

Or dig further into on what the problem was; see the exhaustive [dataprax.is/tory-landslide…] 2/

More datasets address the primary reasons Labour lost GE19 than there are initiatives in making sure they don't reoccur.

My confidence is high. This is true since Labour has zero initiatives on them!

This is 60 of Johnson's 80 seats! 3/

#HartlepoolByElection
So how did Hartlepool play out?

If you're a politician or an offshore press baron, it's any self-serving statement regardless of its truth.

Like the Tories won a landslide: (they didn't.)

https://twitter.com/HereBeProof/status/1390566793492762624?s=19

4/

Or Brexit mattered: it didn't at anywhere near the level claimed

#Hartlepool played out like the General Election.

Labour voter apathy (LDs not a factor) was the primary cause. 5/

So if Labour is still to be a power, what should they do to get Labour elected and the criminals in Government into the Hague to answer for their crimes?

A Story. Accountability. Don't split again. 6/

1. Get some headlines, LAB. Motivate those apathetic to your cause.
2. hold Gov to account, but not randomly. Do 🔼 in the context of this
3. Resolve the feud with the LDs as the only people that help are Conservative. 7/

This isn't the whole answer, but it's a start
How likely is it to be the outcome for #Labour?
If no one reads the data and then focuses on inconsequential internal battles?

Bugger all, and this will continue. 8/