Thread by @VincentFoucher

1. Not convinced by this Soufan Center piece on the death of Shekau and the future of #BokoHaram #ISWAP. It includes some good (though by now not original) analysis but also some claims that are disputable to very disputable… A thread.

https://twitter.com/ColinPClarke/status/1402947216252321795

2. The piece claims that it was al-Baghdadi who “personally ordered Shekau’s ejection from ISWAP”. I wonder about the evidence for this. There has never been a statement from the IS about Shekau’s demise – in August 2016, they only announced Abu Musab as the new wali.

3. The piece mentions Shekau had “Cameroon-based fighters”. As far as I know, JASDJ’s fighters are in the hills on the Nigerian side of the border, not in Cameroon – though of course they do raid into Cameroon.

4. The piece claims that “Abu Musab al-Barnawi (was) reconfirmed as ISWAP’s leader only days before Shekau’s death.” Not clear when Abu Musab taped the audio where he claimed IS made him ISWAP’s ad interim leader. More than days before Shekau’s death, certainly. Several weeks?

5. The piece mentions that “some of Shekau’s fighters in Sambisa have now joined ISWAP”. As far as I know, in the discussions that have followed Shekau’s death, 18 out of 20 Shekau group leaders quickly agreed to join ISWAP. So I’d say it’s more than “some”.

6. Two clues on this. First, several sources tell me that the raiding in Cameroon typical of Shekau has dropped dramatically since his death. It does seem the ISWAP doctrine of sparing Muslim civilians is already having some traction.

7. Time will tell, of course. Raiding in Cameroon will be an apt measure of this, I think. And it begs the question: will ISWAP provide for the Shekau groups which survived through raiding?

8. Second, I hear that ISWAP members have told herders in northern Borno that they could resume grazing their herds in the Sambisa, which means they consider they control the Sambisa alright.

9. Of course, ISWAP may be over-optimistic right now, excited with its kill, and the Sambisa and Mandara may prove a morsel more difficult to chew than they thought. Some Shekau leaders may rebel or drift into banditry.