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Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志

@chasewnelson

Jun 11, 2023

My first #COVID19🦠 infection: a description.

SUMMARY: I was positive for 12 days. Day 1 had debilitating headache, fever, and fatigue. I was functional by day 5, followed by steady improvement. Post-nasal drip continues to the present, weeks later.

Some observations. 1/11

ME: male, 34yo, healthy, 4x vaccinated. My last boost (Moderna 2v) was 252 days before getting infected.

VIRUS: likely Omicron XBB or BA.2.75.

WHAT HELPED: Advil, neti pot, water, sleep, vitamins, fruit. Lemon, honey, cinnamon, and a dash of cayenne pepper in warm water. 2/11

WHERE ACQUIRED: unknown. Suspect a coffeeshop 4 days prior, where several individuals were coughing, some maskless.

DAY 0: the day before I fell ill, I had throat discomfort, as if a piece of food were stuck in tonsil area. This abated midday and I thought all was well. 3/11

Read 11 tweets

Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志

@chasewnelson

Mar 22, 2023

@flodebarre

Nice science by @flodebarre & team in the raccoon dog report, providing important details and (in my view) weak evidence for a wildlife origin of SARS-CoV-2.

However, relevant evidence and reasons for preferring scenario A over B below are not discussed & I remain agnostic.
1/14

https://twitter.com/flodebarre/status/1637960294205931521

Favoring a wildlife origin (scenario A), I found the following most compelling:
🔹SARS-CoV-2+ environmental samples are clustered in the area where susceptible wildlife were held
🔹sample Q61 contained sequence with 100% match to raccoon dog but none with 100% match to human
2/14

Unfortunately, sampling locations were not randomly distributed, but were intentionally concentrated in the area with susceptible wildlife.

Because all samples are spatially concentrated, positive samples are spatially concentrated.

Thus, I find this point to be circular.
3/14

Read 14 tweets

Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志

@chasewnelson

Jun 1, 2022

@TaiwanCDC

Data from the @TaiwanCDC confirm that #COVID19 vaccines help against #Omicron.

Specifically, the rate of death decreases with each additional vaccine dose, for every age group in the population.

This is despite numerous assumptions biased against vaccine effectiveness.
1/13

First, consider the population of Taiwan, stratified by age and vaccination status. The single largest group is 30-49 year-olds with 3 doses (dark green).

This is the pattern of deaths one would expect if deaths were random, i.e., if both vaccination and age had no effect.
2/13

Second, consider the observed deaths. The single largest group is 75+ year-olds with 0 doses.

Thus, the observed pattern of deaths differs drastically from random expectation.

For example, 75+ year-olds with 0 doses are a small demographic but dominate the deaths.
3/13

Read 17 tweets

Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志

@chasewnelson

May 10, 2022

@niccijsmith

I was recently fortunate to be interviewed by @niccijsmith at @TelGlobalHealth regarding #Taiwan's #COVID situation.

Unfortunately, certain media outlets used my observations to play politics.

Instead of spreading hype, here's what I wish they'd covered.
1/

https://twitter.com/CWM_en/status/1523920775559974924

Everyone should know:
1⃣COVID is airborne
2⃣the top symptoms of COVID-19 resemble a cold
3⃣some people develop long COVID
4⃣risks from COVID-19 vs. vaccines
5⃣rapid antigen tests are a good indicator of whether you're contagious, but can be negative even when you’re infected
2/

Some good news:
1⃣the population of Taiwan is relatively freshly vaccinated
2⃣Omicron may be slightly less severe than previous variants, like Delta (but remains highly dangerous to the unvaccinated)
3⃣Taiwan has antiviral medications
3/

Read 9 tweets

Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志

@chasewnelson

Dec 24, 2021

@US_FDA

In a world with #Omicron (a rare mutational event), the drug #molnupiravir (a mutagen) was just authorized by the @US_FDA despite:

1⃣ NO estimate of the number of mutations it causes per virus

2⃣ NO estimate of onward viral transmission while on the drug
fda.gov/news-events/pr…

@US_FDA

@US_FDA Given #molnupiravir's usage to treat #COVID19 is inevitable, what can be done to prevent the potential acceleration of #SARSCoV2 variants?
1⃣patients should strictly ISOLATE WHILE TAKING, especially in the first days on the drug

2⃣ALL DOSES should be taken PRECISELY as directed

@US_FDA

@US_FDA Our own reasons for these recommendations are presented here 👇

https://twitter.com/chasewnelson/status/1465219400064122882

Read 5 tweets

Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志

@chasewnelson

Dec 2, 2021

@US_FDA

🧵The @US_FDA's materials on @Merck's #Molnupiravir and its potential to induce problematic #SARSCoV2 variants are HERE:

📄section 4.3.2.5 (pp. 30-36)
👉fda.gov/media/154418/d…

📺at 2h51m, 3h46m, 4h5m, 5h12m, 7h32m
👉

Observations to follow.
1/n

@US_FDA

@US_FDA @Merck First, @Merck and the @US_FDA panelists have done excellent work compiling and analyzing the available data. This was not an easy vote (13 YES/10 NO).

However, specifically on the potential for molnupiravir to induce new viral variants, the results only augment my concerns.
2/n

@US_FDA

@US_FDA @Merck 1⃣MUTATION VS. SELECTION. The materials repeatedly confuse mutation and selection (e.g., "The Spike protein is already under evolutionary pressure with or without molnupiravir", 3hr).

Contrarily, the concern is this drug is a mutagen and provides RAW MATERIAL, not selection.
3/n

Read 15 tweets

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Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志

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