TODAY’S (6月20日) #COVID19 update for #Taiwan 🇹🇼
📉107 local + 2 imported cases 📉trend
📉11 deaths 📉trend
📈0.6% test positive rate
📈4.1% case fatality rate (CFR) since May 1
🧪20k tests ⤵️capacity
⚠️Fewer cases BUT many fewer tests, higher positivity, and higher CFR. ⬇️ 1/6
DAILY CASES REPORTED (pink bars) and their 7-DAY AVERAGE (pink line), where each day is the mean of itself and the previous six. DEATHS (crimson red bars) at the bottom.
AGE DISTRIBUTION OF DEATHS for May 1-June 20:
🔴64% are ≥70
🔴26% are 60-69
🔴10% are 30-59 years 2/6
AGE DISTRIBUTION OF CASES. Local cases from May 1-June 19 (age data for cases lag by a day), including those with missing locations. Only a single category is provided for ages >70, which constitute 14% of all cases. DATA ➡️ data.cdc.gov.tw/en/dataset/ags… 3/6
Our local case fatality rate for May 1-June 19 is 4.1%—sadly another new record for us, and higher than the world average of 1-3%. This is at least partly due to a disproportionate number of older cases, but also possibly indicative of undetected cases. 4/6
CASES & DEATHS and their 7-DAY AVERAGE BY AGE for May 1-June 19 (latest age-matched data available). Mostly good news. Keeping eyes peeled for 1) a spike 1-2 weeks after Dragon Boat, when some traveled of necessity and 2) workplace clusters due to lack of #WorkFromHome. 5/6
I'm a migrant. So are many of you. Some of us are being packed in #Miaoli#Taiwan dorm rooms while forbidden to go outside or speak. Stop turning a blind eye and END this GROSS HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATION and international disgrace, @iingwen@eballgogogo. nytimes.com/2021/06/18/wor… 6/6
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SUMMARY: I was positive for 12 days. Day 1 had debilitating headache, fever, and fatigue. I was functional by day 5, followed by steady improvement. Post-nasal drip continues to the present, weeks later.
Some observations. 1/11
ME: male, 34yo, healthy, 4x vaccinated. My last boost (Moderna 2v) was 252 days before getting infected.
VIRUS: likely Omicron XBB or BA.2.75.
WHAT HELPED: Advil, neti pot, water, sleep, vitamins, fruit. Lemon, honey, cinnamon, and a dash of cayenne pepper in warm water. 2/11
WHERE ACQUIRED: unknown. Suspect a coffeeshop 4 days prior, where several individuals were coughing, some maskless.
DAY 0: the day before I fell ill, I had throat discomfort, as if a piece of food were stuck in tonsil area. This abated midday and I thought all was well. 3/11
Nice science by @flodebarre & team in the raccoon dog report, providing important details and (in my view) weak evidence for a wildlife origin of SARS-CoV-2.
However, relevant evidence and reasons for preferring scenario A over B below are not discussed & I remain agnostic.
1/14
Favoring a wildlife origin (scenario A), I found the following most compelling:
🔹SARS-CoV-2+ environmental samples are clustered in the area where susceptible wildlife were held
🔹sample Q61 contained sequence with 100% match to raccoon dog but none with 100% match to human
2/14
Unfortunately, sampling locations were not randomly distributed, but were intentionally concentrated in the area with susceptible wildlife.
Because all samples are spatially concentrated, positive samples are spatially concentrated.
Specifically, the rate of death decreases with each additional vaccine dose, for every age group in the population.
This is despite numerous assumptions biased against vaccine effectiveness.
1/13
First, consider the population of Taiwan, stratified by age and vaccination status. The single largest group is 30-49 year-olds with 3 doses (dark green).
This is the pattern of deaths one would expect if deaths were random, i.e., if both vaccination and age had no effect.
2/13
Second, consider the observed deaths. The single largest group is 75+ year-olds with 0 doses.
Thus, the observed pattern of deaths differs drastically from random expectation.
For example, 75+ year-olds with 0 doses are a small demographic but dominate the deaths.
3/13
Everyone should know:
1⃣COVID is airborne
2⃣the top symptoms of COVID-19 resemble a cold
3⃣some people develop long COVID
4⃣risks from COVID-19 vs. vaccines
5⃣rapid antigen tests are a good indicator of whether you're contagious, but can be negative even when you’re infected
2/
Some good news:
1⃣the population of Taiwan is relatively freshly vaccinated
2⃣Omicron may be slightly less severe than previous variants, like Delta (but remains highly dangerous to the unvaccinated)
3⃣Taiwan has antiviral medications
3/
@US_FDA Given #molnupiravir's usage to treat #COVID19 is inevitable, what can be done to prevent the potential acceleration of #SARSCoV2 variants?
1⃣patients should strictly ISOLATE WHILE TAKING, especially in the first days on the drug
2⃣ALL DOSES should be taken PRECISELY as directed
@US_FDA Our own reasons for these recommendations are presented here 👇
@US_FDA@Merck First, @Merck and the @US_FDA panelists have done excellent work compiling and analyzing the available data. This was not an easy vote (13 YES/10 NO).
However, specifically on the potential for molnupiravir to induce new viral variants, the results only augment my concerns.
2/n
@US_FDA@Merck 1⃣MUTATION VS. SELECTION. The materials repeatedly confuse mutation and selection (e.g., "The Spike protein is already under evolutionary pressure with or without molnupiravir", 3hr).
Contrarily, the concern is this drug is a mutagen and provides RAW MATERIAL, not selection. 3/n