Oh my, Rick Astley is back. Coins are moving back to the HODLer who never deserts his BTC.
The previous chart was a 30 day sum of coin movements.

Here's the 7 day view showing greater granularity.

We can see how the mass of coins dumped out to speculative hands are being re-accumulated by strong hands in a pattern similar to the COVID recovery (8 weeks to recover).
So who is selling?

Whales aren't selling.
Sharks aren't selling.
Dolphins aren't selling.

Big holders are holding.
Octopussies and fishies are stacking this dip.
Crabs are stacking as hard as their little shells will let them.
Shrimps are taking their lead and stacking like there's no tomorrow, especially in the latest dip.
User growth as strong as ever on the network.
So yeah, it's definitely a bear market folks.

🙄←sarcasm

We should all panic sell because traders tell us there's two moving averages that just crossed and they carry the name "death" in it. Sounds so scary. 😱
This tweet was brought to you with the help of @glassnode on-chain data.

Cryptotwitter tells me this data is a hopium conspiracy; I can neither confirm or deny this fact, but please post me your bear porn.

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More from @woonomic

18 Jun
#marketupdate, IMO from on-chain is sideways then bullish in maybe a week or so.

Some downside risk if stonks tank, a lot of rallying in the DXY (USD strength) which is typical of money moving to safety.
The first thing to look at is to answer "are we in a bear market". Welp, bear markets start when no new buyers enter to support price and that aint happening, we have healthy growth of new users joining the network.

Let this frame all other metrics.
Of primary interest is capital rotation from stablecoins back into the crypto markets (I'll say that's mainly BTC since alt coins are reducing in dominance).

All of that dry powder sitting on the sidelines has started flowing back in.
Read 11 tweets
17 Jun
I've updated NVT Signal to correct for upward drift in the metric (due to volumes moving off the blockchain and only L2).

And yes, BTC is OVERSOLD at historic levels.
NVTS was first published in Feb 2018 by @Kalichkin, as a more responsive trading signal based on my NVT Ratio.

woobull.com/nvt-signal-a-n…
Exchange dominance increased over time. This had the effect of making a proportion of the long term investor volume invisible to on-chain analysis, only happening inside exchanges.
Read 6 tweets
1 Jun
A thread about NVT, one of the first on-chain signals first published in Feb 2017.

This is a 2021 re-hash of my NVT learnings since then.

"How to use on-chain volume to establish a fundamental valuation for Bitcoin."
Ever seen this chart of BTC's on-chain volume vs its market cap and wondered why they track so closely?

On-chain volume measures the amount of money moving between investors as seen on the blockchain per day. It's highly correlated to market cap.

But why?
Let's lay down a first principles equation for a pure store of value network:

value moving between investors = value of the network * how much the money supply churns

In short form:
I = M * V

where:
I = Value moving between investors
M = Market Cap
V = Monetary Velocity
Read 13 tweets
9 May
This cycle is different; the movement of coins to strong holders is unprecedented.

Chart: purple line tracks coins moving between weak and strong hands (running total over 128 days)

Raw data: @glassnode
A few observations regarding the trend towards strong HODLing...

1) No way are we entering a bear market. That's obvious this week from price action, but not so obvious 2 weeks ago when the sky was falling.
2) Coins moving to corporate treasuries likely making an impact.
Read 6 tweets
20 Apr
This revisit of lower price has created incredibly strong price validation for Bitcoin about $1T cap. 14% of the supply last moved above $1T cap.

This is a key line in the sand imprinted into BTC's price discovery, an area of immense support.
Anyone thinking we are going into a prolong price correction needs to know about the rate of new users coming into the network per day. We're in the middle of a bull market with a hockey stick of new adoption, especially in the last 2 weeks.
Coins continue to move to very strong holders (the Rick Astleys of this world). And moving at all-time-high rates.
Read 4 tweets
19 Apr
Chinese miners went offline 3hrs into the difficulty adjustment.

The difficulty adjusts every 2 weeks to match the natural increase in hash rate from miners. This keeps block times to a steady 10 mins. If you're going to slow the network down, this is the best window to do so.
9.5hrs into the difficulty adjustment, 9000 BTC was deposited into Binance, this provided enough selling pressure to drop the Bitcoin price below $59k support, forcing the $4.9b of liquidations.
It's an interesting timing of events.

We have 11 more days before the next difficulty adjustment corrects for any loss in miner hash rate. Note the hash rate is already returning to the network.

This is an addendum to my price crash post mortem thread:

Read 4 tweets

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