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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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21 Jun, 16 tweets, 10 min read
45% of all #DeltaVariant deaths in England🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 in the past 1 week (June 8-14th) where among those fully vaccinated with 2 doses & post +14 days. Total Delta #COVID19 deaths up +31 in one week—of 31, 14 deaths in fully vaxxed. #Delta breakthrough concerning🧵
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
2) To be clear, this is still a large benefit of vaccination. But we cannot say for certain that #DeltaVariant is “nothing to worry” about anymore. It is much faster transmission & 2.5x greater hospitalization risk than #Alphavariant which implies 4x hospitalization vs original.
3) We have to be worried when we see such numbers and the exponential rise of #DeltaVariant worldwide — especially in low vaccinated countries, and under vaccinated parts of US that are vaccine hesitant.
4) We are seeing a lot more #DeltaVariant related breakthrough infections. Israel is also heavily 2 dose vaccinated country too—with Pfizer no less. And it’s seeing more Delta #COVID19 school outbreaks too, and breakthroughs in teachers. Must be vigilant.
haaretz.com/israel-news/te…
5) Thinking about these tricky breakthrough deaths, from talking to many other experts I’ve conferred, is that a combination of age related waning of immunity as well as immunocompromised individuals not having sufficient vaccine immunity responses—creates a pool of vulnerable.
6) Canadian federal government has now just declared that AZ is inferior to mRNA vaccines, thus advocating to people to switch to Pfizer and Moderna. Not a peep on J&J 1-shot regimen. (note- J&J is in same adenovirus-vector family as AZ, but J&J has special double-proline splint)
7) The reason we don’t know about J&J is that unlike AstraZeneca, J&J is an enhanced spike vaccine with a “double proline” encode to splint & stabilize the spike protein—Pfizer, Moderna, Novavax has this special enhancement as well. *AstraZeneca does not*. cen.acs.org/pharmaceutical…
8) Thus, J&J is unique. It doesn’t quite fit in with adenovirus vector AstraZeneca due to double-proline difference, and it doesn’t fit in with protein based Novavax, nor mRNA like Pfizer or Moderna. It’s hard to infer what J&J efficacy is—or what to do about it being 1 dose.
9) Vaccine effectiveness against #DeltaVariant according to @PHE_uk — averaging AstraZeneca & Pfizer together (even if different), you can see a substantial drop for 1 dose. But even 2 doses has a ~8% drop as well. Also AZ’s 2 dose is actually 60%. ?
10) Problem for UK is that while over half of adults are fully vaccinated, 2/3 of all shots are the 60% 2-dose efficacy AstraZeneca vaccine.
11) Doing the math, @GosiaGasperoPhD says we can only stop the fast #DeltaVariant if we have >90% efficacy vaccine used by 70% of the total population (not just by adults). But no country on Earth is at that level yet for 2 doses, and with 90% efficacy for Delta. That’s the worry
12) In addition to deaths, 10% of all hospitalizations in the UK last week were among those fully 2 dose vaccinated. This is not a small handful of breakthroughs anymore.

(Sidenote- hospitalizations is much larger numbers than deaths - more stable (less prone to fluctuations).
13) Not just severity and vaccine breakthroughs, but #DeltaVariant is also incredibly transmissible via just “fleeting” short casual exposure. Several documented and proven cases of such short “seconds” long exposures from Australia 🇦🇺 detailed tracing. See thread 🧵
14) I would like to point out that while UK has more 1st dose than Israel, it is only 46% vaccinated (~2/3 of which is AstraZeneca), which is decent but not remotely enough to remove mitigations as shown above, for stopping #DeltaVariant via vaccine alone. ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…
15) If you think you don’t need the vaccine or the 2nd dose… you’re not paying attention to the #DeltaVariant that is coming up in multiple countries.
16) Dr Fauci warned recently: “The problem you get into … is that a single dose only provides about ~30% effectiveness [against #DeltaVariant]—so that is really an issue you gotta be careful”. Fauci seems to clearly push 2 doses against #DeltaVariant now.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Jun
NEW—European CDC warns the #DeltaVariant is expected to account for 90% of all #COVID19 cases in European Union by end of August. Delta has already spread to 23 EU countries; 66% of new cases in Portugal. In Moscow, 90% are #DeltaVariant. US at 20-30% now.
nytimes.com/live/2021/06/2…
2) “Unfortunately, preliminary data shows that it can also infect individuals that have received only one dose of the currently available vaccines. It is very likely that the Delta variant will circulate extensively during the summer, particularly among younger individuals”
3) Most E.U. countries have not yet fully vaccinated one-third of their total populations: the average is about 27%.
Public health officials have said that Delta may be 50 percent more contagious than Alpha. European CDC estimates that Delta is between 40-60% more transmissible.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Jun
BREAKING—Dr. Anthony Fauci said Wednesday the #DeltaVariant now accounts for ~20% of newly diagnosed cases in U.S. and **will become dominant #COVID19 strain** within weeks. FT also estimated 31%, meaning it’s doubled/tripled in 1 week!🧵 HT @Dawn_Kopecki
cnbc.com/2021/06/23/del… Image
2) It just exploded in the U.K. It went from a minor variant to now more than 90% of the isolates in the U.K.," Fauci said the variant has a doubling time of about two weeks and currently accounts for 20% of the isolates in the U.S., which are newly diagnosed infections.
3) "So you would expect, just the doubling time, in several weeks to a month or so it's going to be quite dominant, that's the sobering news."
The variant, first emerged in India, has quickly swept the globe. WHO officials said that delta has been found in at least 92 countries.
Read 11 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Jun
9 million Americans abroad are frustrated by lack of vaccines. Marine Corps Cpl. Samuel Wright, 81-year-old Vietnam veteran living in Thailand, has not yet gotten access—he feels "abandoned" & "betrayed”. They've left us here to die."🧵
By @JustineColeman8
thehill.com/policy/healthc…
2) “As part of the age group most vulnerable to severe illness, Wright said he and his wife are not willing to play "Russian roulette" and risk traveling to the U.S. to get their shots.”
3) Michael DeSombre, a former U.S. ambassador to Thailand, traveled with his family to U.S. to get vaccinated. But not all American expatriates have the money to travel to the US, to get both shots and pay to quarantine in a hotel if their country requires it upon their return.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Jun
Explosive new book reports that Trump hoped #COVID19 would take out (ie kill) his former national security adviser, John Bolton. The exact quote is below… 👀 hot damn. And the authors @damianpaletta and @yabutaleb7 thinks Trump was serious!
axios.com/trump-john-bol… Image
2) juiciest quote:

"You f*cking moron. We’ll all be dead by June.” ~Jared Kushner. 

As #COVID19 slammed US in early spring, Jared Kushner was furious to learn the US order of millions of masks wouldn't arrive til June 2020… amzn.to/3zNeuJC
3) Also crazy… Trump wanted to detail Americans at Gitmo!
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Jun
Right on cue… #DeltaVariant has arrived in the low #Vaccination states of America 🇺🇸 and setting off sharp increases in #COVID19 cases again. If only epidemiologists had been trying to warn… 🧵 Image
2) The rise coincides with the increase in the #DeltaVariant - from 10% over a week ago to 31% over the weekend. A tripling in one week!
3) fully vaccinated % in Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Utah… pretty low. Image
Read 16 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Jun
Sydney 🇦🇺 #DeltaVariant outbreak growing—NSW recorded another surge of #COVID19 cases—16 new infections recorded overnight. There are now 37 cases linked to the Bondi (shopping mall) cluster that had the “fleeting” exposure cases. Lockdown now considered.
news.com.au/world/coronavi…
2) “Fleeting”? Yes, fleeting. Mere seconds of passing exposure = infection with #DeltaVariant. Don’t believe me? Watch the video and read the detailed thread 🧵 below
3) Fleeting can’t be true? Yes it can. We have both security camera CCTV footage as well as genomic 🧬 sequencing to prove it.
Read 4 tweets

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