Suraj Profile picture
23 Jun, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Well, let’s look at the best performing Sun, Mon and Tue for vaccination since start of April when >45 was allowed then.

Oops. The best ever Sunday was June 20. The best ever Monday was June 21. The best ever Tuesday was June 22.

1/
Maybe the ‘hoarding’ began Saturday then ? Oops no, Saturday June 19 was the best ever Saturday.

Must be Friday ? Nope, June 18 was the 4th best but very close to the top, and Fridays in June take up 3 of top 4.

2/
So did the trickery begin earlier ? Nope. Three full weeks of June occupy spots 2, 3 and 5 of top 5 best performing weeks along with the 2 April peak. Three days in , the current week is already on track to make the top 5 easily, if not become the all time best week.

3/
You’re making the mistake of bringing a pocket knife to a gun fight. You think the data is hard to find ? Wrong. This data is readily available on pib.gov.in and mohfw.gov.in . Gets updated 2x every day except Sunday, since March.

4/
What is the point of waving hands about saying things so completely divorced from reality, and so easily refuted with data ?

Ironically you were once in charge of the nations financial numbers.

One can only hope you had a somewhat better command of the numbers then.

5/5
Wednesday addendum:

With PIB 7pm data being available, Wednesday June 23 is the best ever Wednesday in terms of vaccinations.

After four days of this week (Sun-Wed), it is the second best ever week, up from 7th spot after Tuesday.

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More from @surajbrf

20 Jun
Updating as a new vaccination data thread for June Week 3.

1. Mon to Sat saw >3m doses everyday.

2. Mon and Sat each had >4 million.

3. The past 11 days have seen >3m/day trailing 7DMA - almost matching 12 consecutive days in April. Current 7DMA is 3.34m/day.

1/
With consistently rising consumption, the extrapolation of production based on weekly consumption has also risen to 117m/month rate now.

This is close to the higher end forecast of 120m/mo rate projected for June, with one more week to go, and almost 2x early May rate.

2/
Nit: earlier image should say Wk 3 for last bar.

The rate of increase from Wk2 wasn’t as high as prior weeks, but a month long acceleration is clear - already twice as long as the April surge in vaccinations, with supplies still increasing.

3/
Read 6 tweets
9 Jun
This thread updates Indian vaccine order data as of June 8 2021.

First an overview of all orders by the central government paid for or advance made. Current cumulative total is 1055.5 million doses ordered.

1/
General observation: Mar/Apr/May orders are approx 6 weeks apart. This offers insight into production rate.

SII: 100m doses at 6 week cadence, translates to 67m/month rate in March (100/6*4)

Next order is 110m order 6 weeks later, implying 73m/month production rate April.

2/
The June order of 250m doses is harder to parse, but if production rate is 100m/month, it means next SII order will be ~10 weeks from now.

So the order cadence here aligns closely with stated SII production rate estimates for the same months.

3/
Read 12 tweets
25 May
This thread examines vaccination data from April and May (to date). It also looks at state/zone level, and some priority behavior by states.

All data from MOHFW and PIB daily reports:
pib.gov.in/allRel.aspx
mohfw.gov.in

First, an aggregate picture:

1/
Observations:
It has regularly been stated that April saw extremely high vaccination. In total numbers, this is true, over 90 million, increasing from 64M to 154M. However, daily data shows this is heavily biased to the first half.

2/
The April 7 day vaccination moving average drops to well below 3m/day in the second half of the month. And end of month it is 2.3M/day. May performance on the other hand has touched 2m/day as of May 24.

3/
Read 23 tweets
22 May
There’s a lot of recent handwaving about Covaxin focusing on sensationalism around ‘lack of WHO EUL’. The status of this information can be readily found:
extranet.who.int/pqweb/sites/de…

@BharatBiotech submitted the EOI only a month ago, with pre-submission meeting in May/June.

1/
The WHO guidelines are listed here: who.int/publications/m…

This qualifies everything from the trials process to manufacturing.

2/
An interesting example here is J&J, which received an ok of its US/Netherlands manufacturing sites in March:

But then the entire US production has been under question. All US J&J vaccines used are imported from Netherlands.

news.yahoo.com/100-million-do…

3/
Read 11 tweets
17 May
I'll try to interpret the *data* I've presented in this context:

The Indian approach cab be best characterized as opportunistic. It considers that certain things can be affected and certain things cannot. It attempts to maximize what can be leveraged. Let us explore:

1/
Given the choice to develop N vaccine candidates (N can be few or many), certain invariants hold:
* Each of N takes 3 steps to approval.
* Each will take a minimum time to clear all 3.
* Addi resources or options will not speed this up ('9 women and a baby in 1 month..')

2/
Therefore during the discovery phase the govt chose to be an enabler. As Poonawalla's tweets in Apr-Dec 2020 showed, Govt facilitated their scaling up and encouraged them to sign big deals, and start production early.

3/
Read 11 tweets
15 May
This article exhaustively collects order data and current delivery data for the US, India, EU/UK plus some other countries.

It specifically addresses the assertion that India failed by not making large bulk orders during mid 2020 like the west did by spending billions .

1/
Let us look at US data since they were at the forefront with Operation Warp Speed; all numbers here are backed by reference data.

This shows how much of total US order volume has so far been fulfilled:

2/
Observations: three of six OWS contracts have yielded 0 doses to date. The J&J contract has yielded 15m doses, all imported because entire US production has been discarded for QC reasons, and they have been written off as a source:

politico.com/news/2021/04/2…

3/
Read 23 tweets

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