Thread by @MarkGaleotti

Moscow is saying that Border Guard ships fired warning shots and Black Sea Fleet Su-24s dropped bombs because HMS Defender 'intruded' onto its self-proclaimed waters off Crimea. Not yet confirmed by HMG, as far as I know, but a short thread 1/

By international law, of course, the waters off Crimea are *not* Russian, as the annexation is not recognised. Continuing to pass those waters - without being too provocative - is a crucial way of reaffirming law over land- (and sea-) grab 2/

As I wrote here for @ConGeostrategy, HMS Defender's mission to the Black Sea was a political one - about projecting presence, supporting Kyiv and reminding Moscow that its annexation was not forgotten or accepted 3/
geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world…

Moscow likewise reacted politically (in its own way), first spoofing GPS signals to try and present Defender and a Dutch frigate as aggressively heading straight for the Russian Black Sea Fleet base at Sevastopol... 4/
news.usni.org/2021/06/21/pos…

And now claiming - as they have in the past - to have 'driven' the Royal Navy away by aggressive operations. The talk of warning shots could be a total or partial fabrication (it wouldn't be the first time) or it could be true. Either way, it shows not strength but weakness 5/

This kind of posturing may be intended to project strength of will (and to try and denigrate the Brits for 'fleeing') but in practice, it simply reinforces the sense of Russia being not the kind of mature great power Putin tried to present at Geneva but erratic + spiteful 6/

I felt the (largely sidelined) Foreign Ministry had more of a role in Geneva. It could be that this op represents the 'siloviki' (NB, Border Guard is under FSB control) pushing back? Just speculation. Let me end by restating: this not yet confirmed, so await video/UK stmnt /end

(I'm corrected: not GPS, but AIS - automatic identification system. But the point stands)