Thread by @pmdfoster

The EU is poised to do mutually agreed can-kick on the 'sausage war' row -- but as @MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane a temporary truce has to lead to a more permanent fix... will it? via @FinancialTimes with @SamFleming10
@PickardJE /1
ft.com/content/ae264e…

@MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane @FinancialTimes @SamFleming10 @PickardJE One reading, it's an EU climbdown - the 'conditions' for the extension to the grace period on sausages are pretty woolly (keep labelling and seeking permanent solution, ideally a EU-UK vet deal) - but equally it's an improvement on unilateral action /2

@MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane @FinancialTimes @SamFleming10 @PickardJE But what is the prospect that we don't end up in same place in September??

Because the EU still wants the "core" of the Protocol to be implemented - viz respecting and applying the list of EU rules/directives in the annexes to all goods travelling from GB to NI /3

@MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane @FinancialTimes @SamFleming10 @PickardJE And it is not at all clear that an acceptable re-working of the Protocol wanted by @BorisJohnson @DavidGHFrost is really squareable with the Protocol as it stands -- let along for the DUP and Unionists. And the EU knows that, and doesn't trust the Brits because of that. /4

@MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane @FinancialTimes @SamFleming10 @PickardJE @BorisJohnson @DavidGHFrost Some will argue - like @Mij_Europe -- that this EU flexibility ultimately makes it less likely that the 'core' of the Protocol ever gets implemented....that may be correct. But to be honest, not clear at this point how implementable it is anyways /5

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1407699544595443717?s=20

@MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane @FinancialTimes @SamFleming10 @PickardJE @BorisJohnson @DavidGHFrost @Mij_Europe Because it's worth recalling that the Protocol is currently only partially being put in place -- and already that internal EU border is sucking up 20% of EU external border checks according to UK estimates. It's a huge burden even when digitised/streamlined etc /6

That is the very clear message in this excellent @ColdChainShane thread on why some of the 'supermarket' schemes and UK 'groupage' schemes aren't really going to give GB business the confidence to trade with NI. That's the reality /7

https://twitter.com/ColdChainShane/status/1403349355122278407

@ColdChainShane As Brennan tells me: “Temporary extensions, partial exemptions and convoluted digital processes are not enough to give businesses the confidence to start trading again. Without this it is the smallest businesses that will suffer." /8

@ColdChainShane As both Brennan and @MichaelAodhan add -- there IS a fix here -- but it requires the EU to think outside the current box, and the UK to accept that a full-fat vet deal products (which would help Eng, Scot, Welsh too btw) is the basis of a trusted trade scheme that works/9

@ColdChainShane @MichaelAodhan As Aodhán Connolly put it: “Business is frustrated that we can see solutions, such as a trusted trader scheme, but we haven’t had the political movement we need. An extension is a welcome move and a good start, but more needs to happen — and quickly." /10

@ColdChainShane @MichaelAodhan But we know that isn't going to happen (a vet deal) and indeed as the SPS arrangements in the UK-OZ deal become clear, it is likely to get harder and harder to 'fudge' requirements GB-NI on that border /11

@ColdChainShane @MichaelAodhan It still remains unclear whether the UK really does want to 'sandpaper' the existing deal -- or actually fundamentally re-write it. And it may only be when we do get to a crunch (and EU imposes tariffs in TCA for EG) that @BorisJohnson makes his final choice /12

@ColdChainShane @MichaelAodhan @BorisJohnson For now it all rumbles on, which is -- frankly -- much better than it all getting nasty, but the really deep questions don't seem to be settled. Not in London, not in Brussels and indeed not in Belfast where the political facts on the ground in flux. ENDS