Thread by @pmdfoster

It's OUT! My weekly #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes
-- this week: "Why striking trade deals abroad is creating headaches for Johnson at home" and is likely to continue to do so...stay with me/1

ft.com/content/980fce…

@FinancialTimes First Oz-UK trade deal row which has been bubbling all week. UK farmers warn they'll be "thrown under the bus" by zero-tariff deal, but it looks as if @MPGeorgeEustice
has lost argument to protect farmers, per @MrHarryCole report (not denied)/2

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1395470549564932103?s=20

@FinancialTimes @MPGeorgeEustice @MrHarryCole 15 years might seem a long time, and Oz exports are tiny...but what farmers fear is that UK will now have to grant same to NZ, Canada, USA, Mercosur etc etc...this WILL hit farmers as @trussliz own department modelling acknowledges here /3

gov.uk/government/pub…

@FinancialTimes @MPGeorgeEustice @MrHarryCole @trussliz And as we reported, Oz producers are licking their lips. Now, as @_BenWright_ has pointed out, these are small volumes, but mean industry experts liek Peter Hardwick of @BMPA_INFO say you that you don't need massive import volumes to significantly disrupt the market/4

@FinancialTimes @MPGeorgeEustice @MrHarryCole @trussliz @_BenWright_ @BMPA_INFO For EG...a 20ft container load 17,000kg of balanced boneless hind and forequarter cuts might represent the meat from 60 animals. A similar container just containing striploins would have come from over 1000. And those primo cuts carry the big margin/5

@FinancialTimes @MPGeorgeEustice @MrHarryCole @trussliz @_BenWright_ @BMPA_INFO He says that few thousand tonnes of tariff-free, high quality meat is lot, which is precisely why the EU operates tight TRQs (quota limits) in this area. And the assumption is that the Aussies are not going to be sending us cheap manufacturing beef/6

I make no judgment on the rights/wrongs of this coz there aren't any -- just political choices -- but its worth observing that these FTA have minimal macro impacts (0.02pc+ GDP/15 years) but will hit some sectors hard.

Thinly spread gains, narrowly concentrated pain. /7

So while the Sun Says it's "cheaper grub for millions" and part of seizing the "golden opportunities" of #Brexit, this is really a political abstraction...as @DmitryOpines has observed it won't make much difference to consumers, and raises Qs for future/8

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1394942642576838657?s=20

@DmitryOpines It may well be that actually much of this debate remains abstract -- deals with US, Mercosur and others probably a good ways off -- but if #Brexit has taught us anything, politics is often more propaganda than substance. And that cuts both ways./9

@DmitryOpines So while Liz and the Sun are tooting about buccaneering Britain for now, there are others, equally adept at campaigning, who can create counter-narratives, particularly if the economic climate (inflation, continued low productivity, problems with EU trade) shifts/10

@DmitryOpines Recall that @NFUtweets got more than 1m signatures for its petition on animal welfare...and as we strike these deals, expect plenty more grisly reports @peta on mulesing etc /11

peta.org/issues/animals…

campaigns.nfuonline.com/page/56262/pet…

@DmitryOpines @NFUtweets @peta Then there are the constitutional impacts -- Scottish farming, per @nfus_chiefexec is more reliant on livestock...even before these deals land, we can expect SNP politicians (Ian Blackford at PMQs this week for EG) to be making most of cost of "English" #Brexit for scotland /12

@DmitryOpines @NFUtweets @peta @nfus_chiefexec And the environmental impacts -- how Ozzy sugar cane production run-off is harming the Great Barrier Reef, traducing Boris's green message....all while doing in the UK sugar beet industry etc. /13

https://twitter.com/Tom_Clarke/status/1395055942761426952

@DmitryOpines @NFUtweets @peta @nfus_chiefexec Already this week, ten leading green groups including @GreenAllianceUK @UKSustain
@friends_earth @GreenpeaceUK
have accused @BorisJohnson of traducing his own green objectives ahead of #COP26 /14

wwf.org.uk/sites/default/…

@DmitryOpines @NFUtweets @peta @nfus_chiefexec @GreenAllianceUK @UKSustain @friends_earth @GreenpeaceUK @BorisJohnson And more in the same vein here.../15

https://twitter.com/UKSustain/status/1395671204812439553?s=20

@DmitryOpines @NFUtweets @peta @nfus_chiefexec @GreenAllianceUK @UKSustain @friends_earth @GreenpeaceUK @BorisJohnson The point is that until now 'Global Britain', like a lot of #Brexit, has really been an abstraction but we are starting to move out of that phase...when it's no longer so obviously 'cake and eat it' politically, but more hardtack and hardchoices for cap of MV Global Britain/16

How quickly this lands, remains to be seen...the economy is awash with stimulus...savings are waiting to be spend, the superdeduction will turbocharge investment...so if inflation klaxons are only temporary, it may be Buccaneering Britain continues to ride the wave /17

Of course, all this is just politics -- in the grand scheme of things goods trades deal really aren't where the future of the UK is at -- the long term question is whether post-Brexit UK can pay its way in the world via advanced services offering...is there a vision for that? /18

We'll have to wait and see if this is a precursor to a grander bargain on agriculture & trade with the US -- though the Biden administration doesn't seem in any great hurry.

But it feels like this was the week that the discussion began. ENDS