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Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
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24 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
This chart shows continuing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) in all programs (the latest data available for this, released this morning, are from the week ending June 6th). Three-quarters of people on UI are on the pandemic programs Congress created (PUA and PEUC). 1/
Total continuing claims held steady in the latest data but are generally steadily declining—the 4-wk moving average declined by 280,000 and has come down by 4.4 million in just the last three months. However, it’s still roughly 13.5 million above where it was before COVID. 2/
Governors in 25 Republican-led states are canceling pandemic UI benefits early, snatching the lifeline that Congress created. This is a stunning example of how broken our UI system is. 3/
We need fundamental reform that includes guaranteed universal minimum standards so that the UI benefits you get don’t depend on the whims of the governor in your state. For more details on crucial UI reforms, see epi.org/publication/un… #FixUI

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More from @hshierholz

Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
4 Jun
The labor market added 559,000 jobs in May, very strong growth in line with expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, and most of that drop was for “good” reasons, people getting jobs. 1/
However, we still have 7.6 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession, in February 2020. 2/
Further that 7.6 million is not the total gap in the labor market. Without COVID, we would have *added* jobs over the last 15 months as the working-age population grew. Taking that into account, the total gap in the labor market right now is at least 8.5 million jobs. 3/
Read 21 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
3 Jun
Last week 461,000 people applied for UI. This included 385,000 who applied for regular state UI (seasonally adjusted) and 76,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Claims are steadily coming down as the labor market strengthens. The 461,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 37,000 from the prior week. The 4-week moving average of total initial claims also decreased by 37,000. 2/
Total initial claims are now around 40% what they were the first week of March, just shy of three months ago. This is a remarkable improvement. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
12 May
Talk of labor shortages is everywhere. What is really going on? A thread. 1/
Before the April jobs data were released last Friday, the data did not point to widespread labor shortages. But the April data—while still not pointing to *widespread* labor shortages—are indeed flashing shortages in isolated sectors. 2/
Backing up for a second: Remember that the footprint of a labor shortage is very fast wage growth. If an employer can’t attract the workers they need, they will raise wages to poach workers from other employers, who will in turn raise wages to retain their workers, and so on. 3/
Read 24 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
7 May
The labor market added 266,000 jobs in April, solid growth but far below expectations. Growth in March was also revised down. Further, we still have 8.2 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession, in February 2020. 1/
And, that 8.2 million is not the total gap in the labor market. Pre-COVID, we were adding about 200,000 jobs a month. At that pace, we would have added 2.8 million jobs in the last 14 months, so the total gap in the labor market right now is around 8.2 + 2.8 = 11 million jobs. 2/
Do today’s data reveal whether there is anything behind anecdotal claims of worker shortages, particularly in restaurants? (As background, here’s my thread explaining why I’m quite skeptical of claims of widespread labor shortages.) 3/
Read 25 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
6 May
Last week 599,000 people applied for UI. This included 498,000 who applied for regular state UI (seasonally adjusted) and 101,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Claims are high but moving in the right direction. The 599,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 112,000 from the prior week. The 4-week moving average of total initial claims decreased by 74,000. 2/
Total initial claims are still three times what they were before COVID. (If you restrict to regular state claims—because we didn’t have PUA pre-COVID—initial claims are 2.5 times where they were before COVID.) 3/
Read 9 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
4 May
There are certainly a lot of anecdotal reports right now of employers not being able to find the workers they need, particularly in restaurants. But unemployment is still very elevated—particularly among restaurant workers. What’s going on? 1/
First, remember there is *always* a chorus of employers who claim they can’t find the employees they need. One reason for that is that in a system as large and complex as the U.S. labor market there will always be pockets of bona fide labor shortages at any given time. 2/
But a more common reason is employers simply not wanting to raise wages high enough to attract workers. Employers post their too-low wages, can’t find workers to fill jobs at that pay level, and claim they’re facing a labor shortage. 3/
Read 27 tweets

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